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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    If it's so funny, where's your calculations?

    At least Charlie was brave enough to offer a starting point. You and Antoin have been asked numerous times to provide a guesstimate for the cost but continue to decline, whilst rubbishing everyone else's. Any old rough back of the envelope calculation will suffice. We're just talking ballparks for the sake of debate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    In which case, 'We' can afford to send that energy to hydrogen production for extremely low cost rather than simply letting the energy go to waste, and the offshore wind producers can continue to operate profitably, and the overall grid gets the energy we need, and the stability and security we need, and ireland gets an industry and can become a net energy exporter instead of spending many billions a year importing fossil fuels.....

    You're concern trolling about round trip efficiencies, and 'us' paying for energy that isn't directly used in the moment it is generated, meanwhile, fossil fuel companies are being paid trillions a year in subsidies, whole flaring off billions of BTUs of energy or just venting raw methane into the atmosphere every minute of every day.... We all pay for those things too, through energy prices, and more alarmingly, through irreversible environmental harm and the destruction of habitats, land and infrastructure caused by climate change.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    If you provide a guesstimate for the cost of carbon, steel, oil, wage inflation and interest rates for the next thirty years then there would be somewhere to start from to cost things. There is no way to provide the hard costings you seek without these. (By contrast, Charlie hasn't costed anything. He multiplied numbers together and announced that this was a costing. He then compared the outcome to an old and irrelevant figure from another country which is using a technology that is impossible to implement on our grid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    How much do you think Peaker plants get paid for the energy they produce? How much do you think they're paid when they're on standby not producing any power (capacity payments)

    Plants bid for 'capacity units' so even if they never produce a single watt of energy, they are paid that agreed price just to be on standby in case they're needed

    The system is complex, has many many moving parts, redundancies, backups, price mechanisms etc

    When we transition to renewables, it's not just adding new generators, it's replacing the old inefficient, expensive dirty technologies, with modern, cleaner and more sustainable ones. All you and your ilk are doing, is looking at the additional costs for renewable infrastructure, but ignoring the savings from being able to retire old inefficient infrastructure.

    We're moving to a supply driven grid with storage creating a dynamic energy market, from a demand based grid, where we have to pay half of our infrastructure to not produce any energy for more than half the time because we cannot be caught short for the few hours a day several times a week, at certain times of the year when the peak demand occurs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    So both Antoin and Akrasia decline to answer again. Quelle surprise!

    No one is asking for hard costings, just a ballpark. If it's so difficult to put a figure on it, how can you be so sure that your solution is best and not one other approach is worth considering? Is it just Blind faith?

    I do have to laugh at the latest rationale. "We don't have accurate figures for everything so we can't guess anything but let's build at scale and it'll surely be grand". Imagine going into a bank with that logic and asking for a loan or mortgage, yet that's what you are prepared to ask of the tax payer?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    My starting point is that I agree with the plan to replace our grid with renewables as soon as possible and I trust the grid operators and the experts to come up with a workable stable and affordable strategy to achieve this goal.

    I don't need to provide 'my calculations' not least because I have already given my calculations, (10 cent is the total cost for all of upgrades to our energy system) and they are just as useful and thought out as the 'calculations' provided by others on this thread.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Eh? That's some argument.

    Even the crappiest peat plants or dingiest peakers have a higher efficiency than wind and solar. Their availability and reliability is also far superior. That's before you chuck hydrogen into the mix. The oldest plants on the system are the 4 Ardnacrusha units. Should we be closing them too just because they're old?

    The notable part of your argument "it's not just adding new generators, it's replacing the old inefficient, expensive dirty technologies, with modern, cleaner and more sustainable ones." that remains is cost and you refuse to answer that question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,551 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Time for a link dump (who remembers when we used to get those, great times)

    First up, the Germans. They are removing EV subsidies. VW though have decided to step in and cover the shortfall

    Speaking of VW, and other EVs, there's been a price drop for new cars with the resultant drop in second hand value. Some aren't happy

    Audi are scaling back on their EV rollout. This is an article on the UK market really

    And finally, who remembers our Green Party toying with the idea of reintroducing wolves into Ireland? Well, the EU have no come out and said you can shoot them




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭ps200306


    My starting point is that I agree with the plan to replace our grid with renewables as soon as possible and I trust the grid operators and the experts to come up with a workable stable and affordable strategy to achieve this goal.

    That is possibly the scariest-ass comment I've see yet on a thread with a lot of scary-ass comments. Have you read the Eirgrid documents or watched the famous ESB video? To me they look like deer caught in the headlights. They've been told (by Green ideologues) what the answer must be, and have been left alone with the job of getting us there. They're not allowed say the plan doesn't work or the numbers don't stack up. I've worked on enough projects over many, many years to know that when an unworkable project plan is handed down by diktat there are only two outcomes. Either the project manager has the balls to push back and point out the emperor's lack of clothes, or the thing totters along with ongoing cover-ups until the inevitable disaster. (That's usually followed by the famous "search for the guilty and punishment of the innocent"). The various planning documents I've seen are full of caveats about how other organisations will have to step up to the plate. The arguments about how "it wasn't me guv" are already being rehearsed.

    We're moving to a supply driven grid with storage creating a dynamic energy market, from a demand based grid, where we have to pay half of our infrastructure to not produce any energy for more than half the time because we cannot be caught short for the few hours a day several times a week, at certain times of the year when the peak demand occurs.

    The mind absolutely boggles. The Eirgrid plan says (and I quote) "we anticipate requiring 20–50% demand flexibility". We will go from providing the vast majority of power on demand to requiring up to half the load to be shed at any point in time. What the hell way is that to run a grid? Even if the entire zany plan comes to fruition we will be telling large consumers there will be no security of supply. You might as well tell businesses to relocate to the third world where things are more stable.

    I don't need to provide 'my calculations' not least because I have already given my calculations, (10 cent is the total cost for all of upgrades to our energy system) and they are just as useful and thought out as the 'calculations' provided by others on this thread.

    Utterly disingenuous. We have various pieces of evidence available today. One is the continual escalation in auction prices for wind energy. In chronological order: RESS-1 €74/MWh, RESS-2 €98/MWh, ORESS-1 €86/MWh, RESS-3 €100/MWh. Offshore wind looks anomalous. Maybe it's to do with economies of scale as the average project is much bigger. Personally I think it's just mispriced -- I fully expect all the bidders to pull out due to escalating costs.

    We have estimates on the cost of storage. Battery electric storage finds a perfect niche in very short term load smoothing. It will not scale to longer term or seasonal storage. Hydrogen/ammonia have dismal roundtrip efficiencies. You do not need a PhD to understand why. Starting with the most perfect low-entropy source of power we have -- electricity -- and going via multiple thermochemical cycles back to electricity is a surefire way to lose most of it. The producers of the input electricity do not expect to be compensated any less just because their output does not go to on-demand end use. I genuinely cannot see how you square that circle. And we haven't even mentioned the additional costs of electrolysis, storage and regeneration. Or the fact that this has not even been attempted at scale before. That anyone plans to foist such an experiment on an entire unsuspecting country is gobsmacking.

    As for the argument that we will be bankrupted by the EU for not decarbonising, that's just another outrage. I'm not sure we should be taking rules from a country that shut down gigawatts of safe, low-carbon, baseload nuclear power and opened a bunch of coal plants. That tells you all you need to know about the zealots in charge. And you have the audacity to refer to "wingnuts" on this thread. Permit me a wry smile. 😏



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,110 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Your posts have descended to the level of nothing more than you running around in an ever decreasing cirdle attempting to distract from the realities of an offshore plan you favor attempting to distract from how ruinous financially it would be if implimented.

    That offshore plan of wind + hydrogen is for half the electricity generated going towards consumers, the other half to hydrogen production. Not only have to failed to acknowledged that, but you will not even admit that nobody is going to paying for all that generation other than the consummer, plus all the hydrogen add-ons and the generation even when we do not need or us it. As a poster said earlier "it`s your pig from your farm".

    I have not "multiplied numbers together and announced that this was a costing". I have show verifiable costing for offshore wind from our next door neighbours for fixed turbines before the present 40% - 70% increase in cost there, without even including the extra cost of the 28% of floating platforms this plan entails and without any of the hyrdogen capital costs that show how economically insane this plan for 30 GW offshore would be let alone the 70 GW that would be required for Eirgrids`s estimation of our needs.

    Neither have "I multiplied numbers together and announced that this was a costing". I gave you the strike price for Codling Wind Farm of €90 where under the plan you favor 50% of their generation would go to consummers with the other 50% to hydrogen. Nobody but the consumer is going to be paying for a combined strike price of €180. A strike price that, even before all the hydrogen paraphernalia is included, is 30% higher than the U.K. cfd price of "the dreadful deal behind the worlds most expensive power plant". Again, your pig, your farm.

    Your reply to any and all of this? Nothing other than hand waving and "show me dtailed modelling" while point blank refusing to do the same while having the audacity to attempt to dimiss verifiable facts and figures with nothing other than bluster.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    The idea that half of the output of wind farms being expected to go to hydrolysis does not mean that twice as much wind farm capacity are needed is not a ‘verifiable fact’. It is a pet theory and not a very good one.

    I am sad to see the debate slide to the level of Brexit sloganeering.

    not seeing any realistic alternatives to the government’s plan (which is not my plan).

    Staying as we are is out (too much growth)

    Nuclear is out. (Impractical.)

    Expansion of Gas and Oil generation is out. (EU rules and international obligations.)

    So what else?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,110 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    If you do not believe that 50% offshore wind in this plan is not for hydrolysis then you have never even bothered to read listen to or read the plan, or you do not know what the rational is.

    What is sad to see is people similar to the Brexit debate proposing a plan where the run away from actual verifiable costs with nothing to show themselves other than a "Trust me sure it will be grand"

    Who has decided nuclear is out, you on your belief it would fry our grid ?

    If anything nuclear generated electricity is the only back up plan there is, or perhaps it`s just more head in the sand ignoring that we have a 500 MW interconnector to the U.K. that we are told will become 1,700 MW by 2027 and a 700 MW one under construction between here and France along with another planned. Far as I recall a total of 3,200 MW.

    Are we going to have somebody in the U.K. and France sifting through that generation to ensure there is none of that nasty nuclear that would fry our grid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,110 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The rubber is really meeting the road in Germany.

    They are cutting their green investment to bridge a €17 billion hole in their 2024 budget. Their climate and transformation budget fund (KTF) is being cut by 80% , with another €45 billion being slashed from the fund in the subsequent two years. Irish Times Business News December 14 2023.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    What are you going on about? No one except you is talking about frying grids.

    the advice from the International Atomic Energy Agency on maximum unit sizes is quite definitive however, and I really think it is the last word on the subject.

    50 percent of wind generated going to electrolysis does not mean twice as much wind capacity is required.

    You want actual verifiable costs? I thought you wanted back-of-the-envelope figures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Cap24 is out.

    Same pig, different shade of lipstick.





  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    They've completely missed a trick, no mention of culling the herd. In fact it proposes to "encourage genetic improvement in the bovine herd". That'll take some mental gymnastics for a few folks 🤯



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,184 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Blind Faith is the only logical answer. We are right.. well, because we are right.

    If Greens were serious about climate change, they'd forget this nonsense and just straighten their messaging out - to Reduce, Hair Shirt economics. At least then I'd respect the modern Greens. Instead of flogging this ideal that Green Technology means we can just carry on as normal, if only we buy into it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,110 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    No, I gave you actual verifiable costs. You have not even made an attempt on a back-of-the-envelope basis while ignoring what you have been shown and looking for more detailed modeling.

    You either still do not have a clue as to what the 50% for hydrogen plan is or the rational behind it. Either that or you do and you know that as far as the strike price goes it doubles for the consumer and would just like that to be ignored as that alone put the strike price 30% higher than Hinkley. Not that it matters how much consumers use, they would be still on the hook for all these offshore companies can generate under this plan plus all the hydrogen palaver.

    No idea what you are now on about on the IAEA. I do know that Finland`s total generation capacity is 19.7 GW of which 42% is nuclear and Eirgrid is predicting our needs to rise to 14 GW between now and 2050. I also know that our interconnector capabilities are supposed to rise to be able to handle 3.2 GW and if we ever need it, that 3.2 GW has a very high probability of it being nuclear.

    Has the IAEA a problem with that, with Finland`s 42% from nuclear or France`s 70% that they are planning to add to. Or indeed Swedens 30% that they are also going to increase.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai



    If the IAEA stated a simple formula for what the maximum workable size for a single unit on a grid is, would you accept that?

    To be honest I expect you wouldn’t. You never bothered reading the guidance before and I doubt you are interested in reading it now. You saw something once somewhere and you don’t want to hear anything else.

    I think you have confused yourself about what I said about costings.

    I have no idea what your second paragraph is supposed to mean. You just keep saying the same thing over and over again. I think you are wrong as I know. You haven’t explained how you are right.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Says the poster who clearly never bothered read the Capacity market packs but yet insists over and over again that they're an expert on them. Even when shown that they were wrong and some windfarm somewhere is indeed in receipt of such payments, they couldn't be bothered to acknowledge it.

    The only clear way for us wingnuts to be enlightened is for you to explain (from 1st principles) what it is that you are actually proposing (techno-economics and all) rather than continually deriding everyone else's attempts. It's only fair - after all, that's what you're demanding of poor Charlie per your last sentence.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,110 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    No confusion over what you said on costings. You haven`t provided any no matter how many times you were asked. What you have done on costings is totallly ignore the cost of just the offshore element of a plan you favor and ignored a strike price that presently for the Codling Wind Farm leaves it 30% more expensive that the cfd for Hinkley. And that is without floating turbines and all the hydrogen add-ons.

    Lets be honest, you are in now way confused with what the second paragraph said. You just want to ignore it as it shows the ludicrously insane economically ruinous cost of a plan you favor.

    Are you the same poster who brought up this IAEA formula on here a few years ago ? If you are I seem to recall you would not or could not answer questions on that either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,110 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    You sent me 3 rather rambling missives earlier that I was going to reply to individually until I saw this posting of yours to @machiavellianme and realised that I would be just wasting my time. Something that will be understood by anyone who has been dragged into discussion with doctrine apostles.

    At least with most of them they can point to a divinity or a prophet who has slipped this mortal coil, whereas yours have not yet done so even though there are quite a few examples of them having displayed feet of clay.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,381 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    Totally agree. Remember this is the same bunch who swore blind 14 years ago that diesel was the way forward, and introduced incentives to encourage the purchase of diesel cars - I was one of those gobshites who was hoodwinked. Now diesel is public enemy #1

    Fourteen years from now I wouldn’t be surprised if an EV was a plague on the environment.

    And remember this bunch of loonies are lead by a slumbering bloke who had no qualms doing a 14 hour round trip flying to cast a vote - granted another political party saw the folly and hypocrisy of Ryan’s jaunt & bailed him out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai



    So you wouldn’t be willing to accept the IAEA’s findings? I realise the thread has the benefit of the advice of someone who says they have a college degree. Why pay attention to the pompously named ‘International Atomic Energy Agency’?

    Ultimately that’s what this thread is about. Do we depend on expertise of recognized authorities for our future or do we just base public policy on hot takes from slivers of information.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Your entire argument boils down to 'it's hard so we shouldn't even try to do it'

    Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. It's not your fault you feel that way, the oil industry has spent an awful lot of money spreading that message.

    You think 50% demand response is terrible, but are perfectly OK with 50% supply response. Take a step back and imagine we were Hong in the different direction, that we already had storage, and the plan was to get rid of all batteries and instead plan to have a grid set up to automatically scale up and down to precisely match the fluctuating demand of a national electricity grid in real time.

    You'd think we would be absolutely insane to even consider doing that and waste all of the expensive generation capacity when we're not at peak demand....

    And as usual, not a single word about the massive environmental cost of not transitioning away from climate change



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    As opposed to your argument of "the world is burning and we can't stop it, there's no viable solution but we'll put all our eggs in one basket of unknown cost and we should spend on it regardless but at the end of it all, we don't know if it will even matter anyway". Talk about fear, uncertainty and doubt!

    Let's not forget that the green industry has also spent an awful lot of money making sure no one realises that they stand to make a shed load of money off the back of this endless transition. In the end, we get a poorer service for more money. In the past, reliable generation met demand, now you want demand to meet unreliable generation and pay more for the privilege?

    And as usual, not a single word given to the massive cost of not transitioning away from "climate change™".



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Is that an honest attempt to paraphrase my position?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Are your responses honest attempts at providing a costing for it all?



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