FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Meteorite58 · 20-12-2023 10:52am

Wil see if this cooling trend takes hold, unsettled looking charts that would probably include some wintry precipitation, no very deep cold, alternating temperatures with frontal activity but colder than the present relatively mild spell anyway would think.

EDIT: Spelling

Gonzo · 20-12-2023 12:19pm

GFS 00z overall is a very slight but further swing towards cold from December 28th into 1st week of January but it also turns much more unsettled from this date with plenty of rain and sleet possible in places. 6z is currently rolling out and ends on a cool zonal note, but I'm waiting for all the ensemble members to finish.

The CFS extended is busy unleashing a beast or 2 to us in February and March so the Cant Forecast Snow is still going for cold weather to end the winter.

Hooter23 · 20-12-2023 1:19pm

Thats what usually happens anyway...cold arrives near spring...there is more chance of it anyway at that time when all the arctic air starts to break up and flood south..

nacho libre · 20-12-2023 1:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121517799#Comment_121517799

That's it, whatever about a ssw, the natural break up of the vortex in combination with colder sea temperatures can unleash colder air our way at that time. I wouldn't say no to a cold spell in February but it will be somewhat disappointing if we don't have a cold spell in the heart of winter, especially if we do get a ssw in January, but we need to see charts firm up on that from one. Just imagine if we had Storm Emma in January or even early February. There would be no dripping snow melt at 0 degrees then!

Gonzo · 20-12-2023 1:44pm

The 6z is getting there for warming towards SSW levels however what we are seeing is still not a proper SSW. Some of the runs do bring the warmth into the pole and a displacement of the PV but no evidence yet trending towards a split which is what I really want to see.

Overall average trend:

Certainly shows the PV will be under pressure in early January but the PV is still in business as this looks like a displacement event. This does not look like it's enough to reverse the zonal winds for that we really need a proper split. If the above verifies I imagine there would be another go at getting an SSW later in January but it's getting a bit late for winter fun if we have to wait till end of January.

nacho libre · 20-12-2023 8:05pm

Ah feck. We just have to hope it's a displacement that works in our favour then-the pv moves en masse to Asia with no lobes left over Greenland.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121517934#Comment_121517934

nacho libre · 20-12-2023 9:19pm

The latest EC46 for January looks good from the second week onwards.

WolfeEire · 21-12-2023 2:43am

NAO index heads to neutral and prob below in the first week of January after a sustained positive period.

Gonzo · 21-12-2023 12:44pm

The 6z gets us to SSW warming levels and a massive area of warming all the way from Europe, across Asia/Russia and almost as far as Alaska. While not an SSW because we don't get the warmth into the pole nor a split, I'm hoping we will see this upgrade further over the next few days. It does appear that we are going to get a major warming of some description during the 1st week of January.

NAO/AO look like they are going to head back into negative territory during the 1st week of January so northern blocking is very likely to come back. Some decent baby steps in the right direction.

esposito · 21-12-2023 1:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521832#Comment_121521832

Think the above indexes are out of date? Would you have the ones showing January. Thanks!

Gonzo · 21-12-2023 1:16pm

The 6z set of ensembles is almost complete and it's looking like we are starting to develop a minor cold trend towards the final days of December with the colder ensemble members starting to bunch together in the -3 to -6 range and a few outliers appearing which go colder. This potential short cold spell is unlikely to amount to anything noteworthy but at least December may finish up feeling a bit more seasonal. Basically from Christmas Day onwards it's looking average temperatures or slightly cooler than average vs the very mild conditions up to Christmas Eve.

Gonzo · 21-12-2023 1:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121521969#Comment_121521969

Those are currently the latest ones, should get updated again later on today.

nacho libre · 21-12-2023 3:41pm

I wonder would that warming lead to a stretched pv and further warming as Sryan was saying. Let's hope we get a late Christmas present in the form of some juicy charts over the Christmas period for the new year. I have made my peace with yet another Green Christmas. It has been almost 20 years since I've seen snow fall on the big day.

WolfeEire · 21-12-2023 5:50pm

A storm system keeps popping up for around the 27th too on various models. The GEM below. It looks like colder weather overall from Christmas Day onward but the Atlantic looks fairly mobile for the next 10 days which means (more than likely) a polar maritime airmass. The jetstream does look like dipping south and weakening altogether by around 7-10 days which is good news.

Gonzo · 21-12-2023 5:55pm

I'm supposed to be travelling back home on the 27th after Christmas with family, if the above verified I wouldn't be travelling all day in those conditions.

highdef · 21-12-2023 6:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121523204#Comment_121523204

The charts above would result in strong winds for the far south. Not sure where you'd be travelling from but I'd say you'd be fine.

Dazler97 · 21-12-2023 6:19pm

I want a northerly wind not easterly as I don't live in Dublin anymore and I wouldn't get snow this neck of the woods 😫, hopefully that storm doesn't pull off as that's orange warnings for the south and west

Gonzo · 21-12-2023 10:38pm

ECM extended has finally updated for today and it's ever so slightly less favoring a reversal of zonal winds compared to yesterday but still overall a good chance that it might happen. ECM also going for oceans of northern blocking beginning 1st week of January and intensifying throughout the month right out to months end and into early February.

Meteorite58 · 21-12-2023 11:56pm

ECM 12Z cold and wintry looking, LP's knocking about with frontal activity and windy at times.

WolfeEire · 22-12-2023 1:25am

Some tasty wintry members turning up on the GEFS end. Very much a Cold/mild/cold pattern to the ensembles with some blocking beginning to pop up in the final few days.

Gonzo · 22-12-2023 3:35am

GFS 18z certainly going for a cool to cold spell end of December and start of January, a few isolated members getting to the cold we need but we've quiet a way to go, hopefully more upgrades tomorrow and over the following week.

Gonzo · 22-12-2023 2:34pm

Not much change in the output for a possible SSW early January, all the GFS models and it's ensembles are going for a fairly major warming around 3th to 4th of January with a displacement event over Europe. The PV remains in business for the majority of models. A split of the PV seems highly unlikely with this one as not a single ensemble member getting anywhere near a split, unless we see a big change in the output in the next few days.

nacho libre · 22-12-2023 8:39pm

We have got to hope the pv will be stretched and lead to further wave 2 warming and an eventual split by mid January. Then we need a qtr to hopefully still get a cold spell in the heart of winter. There is always ifs and buts trying to get proper cold our way . Why can't it ever be straightforward.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121526289#Comment_121526289

Meteorite58 · 23-12-2023 12:18am

Models sticking for now with the colder trend as we move into next week. Lots of Lp's about so frontal rainbands bringing plenty of rain on and off, how they interact with the colder airmass will be of interest no doubt. A mixture of rain, sleet, hail and possible snow by the end of the week perhaps if the models hold they way they are looking these last couple of days. Impossible for any clarity of timing etc, lots going on in the Atlantic, winds will be shifting around a fair bit but looks to have weather coming down from the N and NW by the end of the week.

Billcarson · 23-12-2023 2:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121529250#Comment_121529250

Since 09 the last week of December has been seriously lacking in cold sadly. 2014 and 2020 are the only yrs since then that had any cold days during the last week of December that i can remember. Or one day In 2010 ,being on Xmas day .

Gonzo · 23-12-2023 3:10pm

GFS 6z some of the members are beginning to get very close to a split so a split of the PV may be possible.

Other members are getting close but for the most part we are still looking at a displacement. If the above verified we would probably get a reversal of the zonal winds with fun and games setting up for the second half of January.