FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Will take a look at the models when I get back home in a few hours but it does look like Winter is coming!

While I was away over the Christmas the charts have been trending colder. A few of the recent GFS operational runs brought us into the freezer at some points. The latest GFS 12z operational is not as cold as recent runs, however there is clearly a cold trend appearing during the 1st week of January and into the second week. I think a cold spell is looking likely during the first half of January but how cold it gets very much remains to be seen and maybe we can see closer to the time if we're going to end up with another dry and cold spell or something more wintry with snow possible. It will probably take another week of modeling watching to firm up on the next potential cold spell to see where we are at.

Mild weather looks as if it's going to be off the table over the next couple of weeks with cool or cold weather the most likely outcome. We look reasonably unsettled over the coming 7 to 10 days with perhaps a drying trend towards the end. Any precipitation that falls is likely to be cold rain with potential for wintry falls as well particularly over high ground. We will need a few more days of model watching to firm up on wintry potential for low lying areas as we are not there yet with quiet a bit of scatter and uncertainty to how cold it will become.

The AO/NAO forecast has quiet a bit of scatter as well but it looks like negative to deeply negative as we progress into January.

As for the warming we are still largely looking similar to the way it was in the run up to Christmas with majority of the GFS ensembles going for a displacement event over Europe with a minority option going for a split. Some of the models are suggesting that the upcoming warming won't be the last with another warming starting to build after next weeks warming event. Plenty more model watching to come with a rollercoaster of emotions likely in the coming weeks.

The ECM looks more keen to bring a reversal of the zonal winds compared to the GFS but a major weakening of the PV looks very likely, if this leads to a reversal remains to be seen.

The ECM extended is going to town on northern blocking throughout January with plenty of high pressure over Greenland and Low pressure over Northern Europe dragging down northerly or north-easterly winds.

overall the GFS has trended much milder on last night and this mornings runs compared to the runs over Christmas and up to the 12z yesterday and has dropped the idea of northerlies or easterlies for now. I feel this might revert back to a colder outcome within the next week but overall the first week and into the second weekof January looks average with mostly zonal Atlantic conditions.

Its starting to take on a very familiar feel where we see promising charts for a few days that don't materialise and now we look back into relatively average or mildish zonal flow into the first half of January. After that the clock starts to tick and we need something happen fast. The upcoming warming looks like it's not going to be a significant SSW so we may need another go at that before it's too late. If a major SSW does not happen before the end of January then we could be looking at final week of February or March for proper cold prospects. Charts today not encouraging but hopefully we will see positive changes over the next week that will stick and not fall apart.

Still time for a mid January cold spell and proper cold to end January but we need to see the models become much more exciting over the coming week.

Looking at the models anyone looking for a beast from the east or snow away from the usual Atlantic hill sleet can go back to sleep but maybe a week of the Atlantic slowing down with a temporary dryer setup is possible in the short term and that alone will suit most people and just about everyone who visits here is sick of the relentless rain, drizzle, waterlogging and wind.