Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

"The drop in home ownership rates for 25-34 year olds from 60% to 27% is pretty much exclusively explained by the housing crisis. "

Then why did most of the drop occur before the current housing crisis?

"A 30 year old college graduate earns significantly more on average than a 30 year old who never attended college, and the former will obtain a mortgage much more easily."

That's true now, but it wasn't 20 years ago when less people went on to third level education, and even before that when third level education was nearly exclusively for children of well-off parents.

No. I'm making the simple point in general - not to you specifically - that there are simple metrics that those condescending at younger generations would do well to look at. The first was whether they, on a presumably senior role salary, would be able to get a mortgage for their own house today? (And I am referring to the average person - not edge cases)

The second metric was to look at the multiple of equity in their house to their current net after tax income from employment. Why did I pick current income? Well there are two general components to salary increases. The first part of salary increases is the simple inflationary one. The second part of salary increases is the "promotion" one. For most people, it would be assumed that they increase their salary in real terms over their career due to the "promotion" aspect. If that multiple is 15X (which I think wouldn't be too unusual) then I think it is fair to say that your equity was not built up purely off the back of your own efforts. What has happened is that your property wealth has increase faster than you were able to increase your own income. That is not a good situation because it means that that target - for someone trying to get on the ladder - is moving away from them faster than they can move towards it. It's not only moving faster than inflation, it is moving faster than inflation + improvements or investments in yourself.

Wealth in society is generated by labour, innovation, and efficiency gains. But it is people who generate that wealth. Property just sits there. If you look at the macro level and it is the case that increases on wealth are disproportionately accruing to the owners of property then you have a situation where those who were wealthy to begin with, are increasing their wealth passively off the backs of the actual wealth generators.

(People can also increase personal wealth through windfall or inheritance etc. I'm stripping them out for the sake of the above)

I got my data from the CSO and the decline has been gradual.

If you're saying that home ownership has collapsed in the last 5 years alone then I'd love to see it.

What I'm saying regarding college is that people didn't need a college degree to earn a living. People got decent jobs with leaving certs, FAS courses and trades. Someone could leave school at 17 in 2000 with a leaving cert, have 5 years work experience and a few promotions under them and be in a position to buy a house.

The same person today would need a degree or a trade plus a few years work experience to even get near a salary to afford a house. Therefore the age a person purchases a house in 2022 is much later than someone 20 years ago.

Even if there was actually a cliff-face fall off in terms of new people entering, what you would be seeing is the people who did buy being gradually aged out and into a higher bracket.

We issued Circa 150k non eea work permits over the last 9 years. (See bellow) Add on top eu immigration and Irish returning and assuming all would be classified as FTB’s it definitely has a big bearing on the stats.

2023 - 23k

2022 - 40k

2021 - 16k

2020 - 16k

2019 - 16k

2018 - 13k

2017 - 11k

2016 - 9k

2015 - 7k

source: https://enterprise.gov.ie/en/what-we-do/workplace-and-skills/employment-permits/statistics/

some harsh lesson learned by our friends across the irish sea.plenty of this kind of person in ireland too and they a lot of sympathy in the media aswell. sorry if your mortgage repayments went up. thats the risk!

less sympathy for this kind of idiot landlord in 2024 please.

Any sympathy for the tenants getting eviction notices when these landlords are forced to sell? Because that is ultimately the result of all this.

The supply part of 'supply and demand' requires profit, nobody will offer a product or service at a loss. Private sector landlords are offering a service, they are not charity.

You hear alot about personal responsibility on here

How many opportunities where there to lock down liw interest rates for the long term over the last 3 to 4 years. If your entering/in a leveraged business, please educate yourself on the basics

Just because his mortgage has gone up is no reason to raise the rent…. He made the investment it didn’t pay off like he expected. How is that different to buying shares or investing in a fund that didn’t perform.

When shares are falling, investors sell.

If LLs sell, that is bad for the rental market.

You think the RTB has bias towards society believing LLs are leaving the market?

Why do you think they would do that, and what benefit to they gain from it?

You do understand the idea of investing is to max profit. If your costs go up and your income remains the same then profit reduces.

All rational business people max income in a normal market. However this particular market is far from normal.

Agreed...I think some may be deciding not to max income and minimise risk ....risk in the form of tenants that can overhold for ridiculous periods of times with little comeback for the landlord.