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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #332
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM and GEM certainly looking cold but the GFS continues to throw out mild operational runs. Now will the ECM/GEM keep the cold theme going over the next few days, will the GFS join the party for cross model agreement and if it does will the GEM and ECM then back off back to a mild solution.... We've been let down with busts and wobbles so many times we are immune to it at this stage.



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    #333
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121550768#Comment_121550768

    With chances of a SSW all but gone, we are looking at a stretched polar vortex again (just like pre Christmas). The Atlantic won out that time. The latest NAO Index update would suggest that the Atlantic may bounce back after a brief lull in the next ten days. All to play for if you're looking for colder weather at some point over the next two weeks but the odds are currently pitted against anything overly wintry or prolonged at this point. A break from the incessant rain and wind would be be welcomed though.

    nao.gefs.sprd2.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #334
    InAtFullBack
    Registered Users Posts: 562 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    image.png

    A screamer of a chart from the JMA!



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    #335
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Just 17 days away...

    gfs-1-384.png
    gfs-0-384-1.png




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    #336
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The UKMO is the pick of the bunch of afternoon output re: a colder outlook. The GEM and GFS have the high planted squarely over Ireland by around the below timestamp. The former would be a more unstable airflow and presents further opportunities beyond the 240hrs window, while the latter would deliver frosty nights and much needed dry weather. Either way, the Atlantic is taking a hike for a while which is wonderful!

    ukmo-0-168.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #337
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yes, indeed the drying out period can't come soon enough. There are floods in places that usually don't flood around here .

    It just a pity we have to wait another week for it. If we can't have snow, I would be happy for an extended period of settled weather.



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    #338
    Brendan offaly
    Registered Users Posts: 86 ✭✭Brendan offaly


    Its to dry out from this Thursday onwards according to Yr weather.



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    #339
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    In fairness as much as I want to see a snowfest, I know were not going to get that over the next 2 weeks but the dry weather will do nicely for walking and getting outside but the land urgently needs it. Just like others have said I have seen waterlogging where i've never seen it before and if this pattern were to continue for several more months we would be in severe trouble.

    A week of high pressure in January isn't going to do a whole lot to fix the saturated land, we need several weeks if not a couple of months of dryer than average conditions to dry out the land to a reasonable state.



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    #340
    torres9kop
    Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    They will probably announce another hosepipe ban with all the dry weather next week ;)



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    #341
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    GCxGZgPWUAAsIux.jpg

    The ICON has shifted that high further north allowing an easterly flow.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #342
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121556952#Comment_121556952

    You'd be surprised what a solid week of hard frost could do to allieviate the water logged ground . I think there is a chance of snow if the UK Met Office forecast is correct but that could change if the NAO goes positive. Without a ssw it's probably more likely any high over us will sink rather than go north west



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    #343
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    UKMO, GFS and GEM have the high smack bang over us.

    gem-0-150.png
    gfs-0-150.png
    UW144-21.GIF


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #344
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557645#Comment_121557645

    And then... the carrot is dangled by GEM

    Untitled Image




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    #345
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557716#Comment_121557716

    For 7am Monday, there is plenty of much colder outcomes suggested in the GEFS members with variations in the placement/evolution of the high

    a.jpg
    b.jpg


    A colder run than the 06z (top). Preferably, you would like to be seeing a few more much colder members.

    graphe_ens3iow3.php.gif
    graphe_ens3wsl6.php.gif

    Chances of a much colder airflow by the end of this weekend currently stand at about 25% based on the 850s. It will take another 2 days or so for the exact positioning of the high to be determined. Tomorrow's low system will have a bearing on the final outcome.

    tablevax0.php.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #346
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557826#Comment_121557826

    The most anemic for cold shall be the chosen one! Sorry glass half full for 24, glass half full for 24...



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    #347
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557899#Comment_121557899
    giphy.gif

    😕😧

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #348
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    Up she goes.....

    Only 15 days away.... what could possibly go wrong:)



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    #349
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557947#Comment_121557947

    Ah Nacho "Glass half full for 24" more positivity and it will happen! : )



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    #350
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,594 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121557947#Comment_121557947

    Like bluearmy puts it on NW, this looks identical to what the lower stratosphere charts are indicating with their placements of the troughs and ridges. The vortices placed exactly the same. You can see how the Siberian lobe is much bigger than the North American one again as per the stratospheric charts shown but the latter still looks a bit close for a proper Greenland block.

    image.png


    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #351
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558059#Comment_121558059

    Yes, that's my fear. The GFS charts looks too good to be true. We could still do well out of a mid latitude block. I just think without a SSW it will be hard to maintain any blocking. Although a Mid Atlantic high could actually be what leads to a SSW later on



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    #352
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The evening ECM shifts the high further north and west allowing for a colder eastnortheasterly/easterly airflow over Ireland by the end of the coming weekend and into next week. Game on.

    ECM0-168.GIF
    ECM1-168.GIF
    1.GIF
    2.GIF


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #353
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Awesome ecm, minus 10s by next weekend in 850s!!! Bitterly cold if it were to come off as above..



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    #354
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,009 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    For whatever it's worth, it's interesting to note that the stratospheric polar vortex also split without reversing in December 2022 (and December 2010 but please don't get carried away!) so it's definitely a trend we'd like to see provided the split gives enough room for next week's high pressure to move northwards/northwestwards to open the floodgates. It would be a shame to get nothing considering how supportive background signals are. An example I like to use which typifies our luck is January 2022, where we had background drivers conducive to Greenland blocking but the polar vortex was hostile towards these signals, causing the high to become stuck over us for a prolonged period.



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    #355
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    Aside from snow showers for those in the east of the country,

    If this does come off as shown, then the pattern could sustain for a while too



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    #356
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558258#Comment_121558258

    Interesting you mention 2010. The other day a friend of mine in Canada was showing me pictures from her city of the snowless ground. She said it has been a very warm winter by their standards over there. This was what it was like back in December 2010 there too. I am not saying we are going to get a repeat of that now, but I wonder is there a connection between warmer weather there and colder weather here.



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    #357
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,496 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558287#Comment_121558287

    I'm going to book a hotel in Dublin if an easterly happens I live in Leitrim and we probably would only get hard frosts I'm gonna keep an eye on this as things unfold



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    #358
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558372#Comment_121558372

    Good idea. If we manage to get a Greenland High you won't have to do that though:)



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    #359
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558215#Comment_121558215

    As someone said previously with those 850s and a tight gradient and relatively high SSTs = serious convection pushing showers deep inland which = serious accumulations! Along long way to go but going to remain glass half full! (Until bubble gets burst : ( )



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    #360
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Untitled Image

    A fairly decent ECM run this evening, we get close to being in the freezer but don't quiet manage to pull it off and we go high and dry relatively quickly but certainly a cold ecm overall. That high pressure wouldn't take much adjustment to bring in a proper long fetch feed of easterlies in a properly unstable flow which would turn the Irish sea into a snow machine. For that we would need the high on this particular run to be a bit further west and north so that the long fetch easterly with it's unstable setup doens't pass to our south and east.



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    #361
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,365 ✭✭✭esposito


    What are the ECM ensembles like? Please tell me the op run isn't an outlier.

    Edit: Just checked, the mean looks good.



This discussion has been closed.
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