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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #362
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558215#Comment_121558215

    It's a shorter more direct draw for the cold than 2018,more like 2010's and Jan 87 by the looks of it,if it happens, it would come with low dew points and very cold surface air from Scandinavia,its a bring it on for me ?

    One of the other pluses here is the shortcut more mainline route leaves less time for the Atlantic to cause mischief, let's RAMP



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    #363
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Untitled Image

    That ECM run is not an outlier but is at the coldest end of the range between the 7th and 10th of January. the GEM and GFS offers alot more scatter than the above from the ECM with no real trend other than things turning dryer. Alot to play for over the coming week in model watching.



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    #364
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,365 ✭✭✭esposito


    That control run in the latter stages (blue line) 😍

    Thats what we want



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    #365
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558713#Comment_121558713

    A little colder in 12z (top) compared to 00z. Mean has the high further north and west.

    tablejxv3.php.png
    tablejaa8.php.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #366
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    Speaking of control...



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    #367
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558768#Comment_121558768

    Dont forget the SSTs aswell. Snowmaker



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    #368
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    If we are to get any snow at some stage, getting a cold dry spell would be best beforehand. Dry out the ground a bit at least. A few harsh frosts would reduce the ground temperatures. I think a frosty spell followed by snow would be perfect in an ideal set up. I wouldn't mind even waiting that bit longer for snow if we had a frosty spell. Not to get ahead of myself but anything is better then the current muck.



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    #369
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558970#Comment_121558970

    I would suggest you'd lose all CONTROL of the car with that 🤣🤣



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    #370
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121559219#Comment_121559219

    :) You must have seen me driving that one time back in 2010:)

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121559162#Comment_121559162


    Get ahead of yourself Billcarson. It's New Years Day. Bazler's positivity has worked on me



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    #371
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,496 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121558387#Comment_121558387

    I'll keep an eye out on models anyway 😏 thanks nacho



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    #372
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Gfs brings high further north to deliver a slack easterly

    gfs-0-162.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #373
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Heights gone from Iberia.. then we have lift off, the high wants to go further north. GFS has joined the party. I hope the rest of the run won't be a letdown , but I dont think it will

    Untitled Image




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    #374
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well I was wrong the high sinks over us by the 11th but hopefully that's just a pre cursor to it eventually going north west a few days afterwards. It would fit with The UKMO texted forecast if it were to happen like that



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    #375
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    We could eventually get close to ice days under that high at this time of year, especially in places where any fog and frost linger. I am looking forward to my walks in some crisp weather rather than in grey skies and rain.



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    #376
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Really looking forward to this upcoming pattern change. Might do bit of hillwalking at the weekend. Good to lift the spirits.



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    #377
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Untitled Image

    Jaws Music.



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    #378
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Gfs pub run doing pub run things. Raging southwesterlies all but guaranteed now 😛

    gfs-0-324.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #379
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121559572#Comment_121559572

    The pub run was unlikely to celebrate New Years Day sober after been sober for many days over the Christmas, only now is it getting the party started.



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    #380
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's really trying to go for it but we still have a bit of a problem with those heights over Spain/Portugal

    Untitled Image

    The high is also starting to drift too close to the Canadian side.



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    #381
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The GFS is trolling us here, it risks going too far north west in the end. There is a real risk of south westerlies by default with that. Still it's just one run.



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    #382
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The 18z operational is an interesting run, however it is not a cold outlier, there are several members that do indeed go colder than what we see here on the operational run. The overall trend is for things to become much dryer if not completely dry and for each day to become slightly colder with temperatures barely above freezing between 7th and 9th of January, after that a big range of scatter between mild, average and cold.

    Untitled Image

    Definitely a shift towards cold on this compared to the 12z. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day of model watching from both the GFS and ECM.



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    #383
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121559919#Comment_121559919

    High pressure very much favoured for the 10 or so days after Friday

    tableqts5.php.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #384
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,401 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Fax chart looks promising with likely light coastal flurries in the east and hard frosts inland with little wind, would take that over the current windy wet stuff any day. Long way out still, one to watch.

    image.png


    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #385
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The GEFS mean is starting to look favourable for the high to go north and west and to establish a proper Greenland block with colder air impacting Ireland and Britain. ECM clusters are pretty much in unanimous agreement on blocking for mid January too. Looks like our weather will be much more settled and cooler from this weekend. Plenty of nighttime fog and frost and perhaps inversion in daytime to keep temps down. Thereafter as we head to the middle of the month, there is a wintry look to our weather based on the below ECM clusters and GEFS ensembles (showing ever colder members for the period). It's a long time since we had such interesting charts in mid winter.

    20240102_121812.jpg


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #386
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    some very interesting charts this morning. Just took a quick look at both the 00z and 6z and both of them send us into the freezer at some point. Definitely some severe frosts and possibly fog coming our way and an end is in sight to this miserable relentless Atlantic muck.



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    #387
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,702 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I'm looking to the shorter term myself. There is potential over the weekend for a colder easterly flow to develop that could be cold enough for some snow showers in the east and south and as the winds go more southeasterly the south coast would be more in the firing line early next week.

    It's not there yet and we need a bit more of a favourable evolution but we are not far away.



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    #388
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    havent seen a GFS chart this dry in a long time. Once we get today out of the way barely any measurable precipitation over the next 2 weeks apart from some light showers mostly in the form of sleet or snow.

    Untitled Image




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    #389
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Looking forward to the 12z runs later, hopefully some upgrades pushing that high pressure further north and west to get us firmly into an easterly flow at some point. Current charts suggest a definite cold spell on the way mostly dry but with very cold nights and chilly day time temperatures. Coldest from this weekend and possibly lasting until 16th or 17th of January. The positioning of the high is going to be crucial for us if we get some snow or not and how long this cold spell lasts. This cold spell will either be followed by the Atlantic trying to come back for the second half of January with a milder solution or a continuation of cold with more attacks from the north or north-east but that is a long way off.



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    #390
    snowgal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭snowgal


    Is this cold air coming in affecting all Europe? Was about to book a long wend away this wend coming, but of course any places now like Alicante etc look like temperatures plummeting there too.. as per username I’m not complaining if we get cold at all, can’t wait! But wanted a contrast away for a few days!



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    #391
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561971#Comment_121561971

    Will be turning much cooler in southern Spain. Temps will dip to low teens there within 6-7 days.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



This discussion has been closed.
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