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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #392
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561463#Comment_121561463

    A recent ec46 had a brief return of the Atlantic after mid January, but a blocking signal overall till mid February. As we know these are notoriously fickle. We could well get Atlantic driven weather to see out winter after this cold spell. The UKMO text forecast mentions briefly milder weather is possible too, it would be nice if just for once the cold was extended- preferably with Atlantic fronts stalling over us and giving us a lot of snow before retreating. Unfortunately Carlsberg don't do the perfect peak winter cold spell, but if they did...



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    #393
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121561971#Comment_121561971

    It's probably going to affect Europe even more than it will do for us with the core of the cold likely to be on the north-east to south-west alignment through the continent of Europe and eastern Spain will definitely feel the affect of this with night time temperatures possibly getting close to freezing even near the coast and daytime temperatures not much higher than 10 or 11C. Inland Spain likely to go subzero.

    Untitled Image




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    #394
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562048#Comment_121562048

    I reckon the Atlantic will make it's return once this cold dry spell is over but it's possible we could get a notable cold spell at some stage in February. If February ends up being a cold month then March could possibly follow. A mild February is usually followed by a mild March and same can be true for cold Februarys leading to cold Marches. We have a long way to go with this winter yet.



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    #395
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    Let's hope the ECM has similar output this evening.



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    #396
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Looking medium term, the GEM and ECM are throwing up similar charts. Greenland to Svalbard heights and incoming frigid airmass.

    gfs-0-264.png
    gem-0-240.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #397
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS 12z starting to look very interesting!

    Untitled Image

    There is actually a chance we could end up with a noteworthy cold spell before months end. I just hope we can get unstable conditions with some snow would be nice!



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    #398
    piplip87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,124 ✭✭✭piplip87


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562248#Comment_121562248

    Ah we've book a long weekend in Málaga next weekend looking like won't be sunshine and shorts.



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    #399
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    Get in!



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    #400
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I think overall the models support high pressure from this weekend with a better chance of maybe getting some snow mid January but the positioning of that high and where it goes is critical. The only problem i'm still seeing in the models is those heights over Spain/Portugal never truly go.



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    #401
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,284 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562620#Comment_121562620

    It’ll happen Gonzo!! They’ll go away!! Have the faith!!! ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️



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    #402
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    I dont think anyone really wants a cold March (Maybe first week max)



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    #403
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The signals are very strong for an extended period of cold and settled weather initially with some potential for wintry weather from the 12th onward. I am struggling to remember the last time we saw such signals in January. We have ensembles strongly favouring the high regressing NW with Greenland blocking into the middle of the month, a strongly negative NAO and AO.

    The GEFS mean is as cold as you normally get on this side of the world for 13 days out

    gens-31-0-312.png

    A lengthy dry, cold spell would do people (and the ground) the world of good though I am cogniscant of those who are struggling to heat their homes. Either way, we will stick to weather talk here.

    Ps... cue the ECM ripping up the trend in 3, 2 , 1 ....

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #404
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Todays GFS 12z is not an outlier, not even close, it's broadly in the middle range so the cold looks very much supported.



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    #405
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562786#Comment_121562786

    The only worry you could have with the ecm for Ireland is shifting the cold further east witch it has a tendency to do closer to reliable time frame.



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    #406
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562829#Comment_121562829

    Entirely possible but there would need to be a whole host of pattern changes downstream for it do so. Output has been quite solid in recent days regarding the high regressing north and west. That said, the betting man's pick will always be the Atlantic when it comes to wagering on Ireland's weather.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #407
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562829#Comment_121562829

    I would be more concerned with the high going too far north west. In any case we are going to get some cold settled days at the very least . Its exciting to have this potential in the heart of winter even if it does go pear shaped in terms of getting some snow. When was the last time we had a proper cold spell in January.

    Post edited by nacho libre on


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    #408
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562840#Comment_121562840

    About time yous got the cold,

    Current chats would give where i live down to -25 at night-16 day time.

    Coldest I've experienced was -21 since I've moved to Eastern Poland.



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    #409
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562870#Comment_121562870

    We have a year round spring sadly. To live in a country with actual seasons would be lovely. My bet right now would be a period (from this weekend) of dry and settled weather with night time frosts with fog persisting in some locations throughout the day, thereby keeping temps low. Wintry weather prospects rest on the period beyond day 10.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #410
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562865#Comment_121562865

    January 2010 I'd hazard a guess at would be last January cold I remember in Ireland.

    Over shadowed by what came later that year



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    #411
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    I would go back to 1987.

    2010 was near all over by 26th of Dec.



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    #412
    Sammy2012
    Registered Users Posts: 1,242 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562905#Comment_121562905

    January 2010 was very cold. It snowed here on new years eve and there was snow around for approx 10 days.



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    #413
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    You could be 💯 i could be thinking January 2011. Memory going getting old..

    We better get back on track or mods will have our scalps!



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    #414
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,365 ✭✭✭esposito


    ECM 12Z is telling us a lot of patience is required if we want a fall of snow. High pressure galore. Let's see where the op lies when the mean/ensembles are out.

    Loving the evolution of the GFS 12Z



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    #415
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121563014#Comment_121563014

    A drying period in order for 3ft of snow to settle comfortably.



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    #416
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,365 ✭✭✭esposito


    Indeed bazlers. Let's keep this positivity going!



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    #417
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Il give it another week espoito and it will have worn fairly thin by then im sure! : ) At least there is plenty of scope in the charts this January for cold incursions we are in with a shout anyhow. Id love to see everyone getting a nice fall of snow with a few frost days.



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    #418
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,594 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121563004#Comment_121563004

    You are thinking that but even so January 2011 was still cold. People seem to forget just how cold it actually was for parts of Ireland. It wasn't snowy but it was frosty cold with the second half being well below average with some very cold nights. Galway had as much as 22 air frosts that month. We had some fantastic crisp sunny days to go along.

    February 2011 on the other hand was a very mild, Atlantic driven write off.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #419
    SpitfireIV
    Registered Users Posts: 4,504 ✭✭✭SpitfireIV


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121563042#Comment_121563042

    DublinLive headline tomorrow;

    'Weather expert predicts three foot snow deluge over entire country as beast from the east set to make a return'


    😂



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    #420
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,496 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562870#Comment_121562870

    Coldest I've experienced was -24c in Canadian Rockies, but it was a dry cold so didn't feel as bad as -24c would in Ireland which is a moist cold



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    #421
    InAtFullBack
    Registered Users Posts: 562 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121562865#Comment_121562865

    January 2021? There was snow on the ground for a few days, a bare cm or so but it was lovely. Overnight lows got down to around -8c or -9c in parts.



This discussion has been closed.
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