FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

We'll need a few masses between now and then

Brilliant charts. Wer definitely going to see a pattern change and some frost. What else who knows? Even 1 snowy day would do.

I've been looking at this one myself and wow I was only 9 at the time ,gonzo was on that so he must be on this since boards started

Yeah basically beautiful charts,always no closer than 7 days,brought everyone down the garden path to nothing materialising

Nice. Let's hope its not a repeat of January 2007 then

In fairness though it mirrors what the UKMO long range has been saying; A cold UK High at first, before possibly something more interesting in the days afterwards. What I noticed too is their wording was more bullish about this happening than they normally would be. Also the ensembles across the suites seem to be rock solid behind this evolution, which should give us a bit more confidence that it might just happen.

Met Eireann 4 week update favours high pressure to be in our vicinity for the entire period. UKMO has been calling for a colder than average January since the week leading up to Christmas. There is little to suggest, other than our collective Boards.ie PTSD of previous winters, that these long range forecasts are incorrect.

The excitement reminds me of being a child before Christmas. Let's hope it happens

Calm and dry is the big thing here. Just hoping that this is a clear high pressure, and not a cloudy, foggy affair that tends to blight the south in Februarys. There is nothing worse than damp, cold, cloudy, foggy conditions with a cutting easterly.

Different evolutions being shown on the gfs 00z, 06z and ecm 00z where there is more mixing of lows from either the north or west that are not conducive to long lasting cold!

On the front of it there appears to be a wobble alright but the ensembles are pretty much still the same as last evening in terms of keeping the Atlantic at bay.

The only exception from last night is the output isn't as resolute about that northeasterly plunge around the 13th and favours the high being a little more persistent. The other change is the inclusion of colder 850s (some very cold) toward the end of the run.

Any increase in 850hpa temps midweek next week will not be reflected as much on the ground due to inversion. That GFS mild run was a rogue outlier. 2M temps here suggest well below temps through to the 19th. Little precipitation.

Historically you would have to favour UK'S Met office over Met Eireann musings. Back in 2010 the UK met were all over that cold spell!!

At the end of the day no one really knows what will eventually happen with the HP yet. I just want to get it in, get some dry cold frosty weather and then see where we go from there......

We have seen it often enough in the past where we have a HP and it eventually sinks but hopefully it won't.

GFS/UKMO 12z looking fairly cold so far in to next week. A cold continental feed over the country. Some wintry showers on east and south facing coasts. A noticeable change in the feel of our weather from this weekend. How it evolves from there (probably some form of retrogression of high pressure toward Greenland perhaps opening the cold floodgates later) and whether this is the start of a long colder stretch for January up for grabs.

If the ECM op this evening were to show something similar, Gerry Murphy will definitely be spotted at Dublin Airport:)