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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #512
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,175 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568994#Comment_121568994

    Much colder next week and mainly dry was his forecast.Beyond that is just guesswork.



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    #513
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,958 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The colder drier trend taking firm hold now, thankfully will give a chance for the land to dry out.

    xx_model-en-328-0_modusa_2024010400_240_949_157.png
    xx_model-en-328-0_modez_2024010400_240_949_157.png




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    #514
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,183 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Dry out and Ice Over 🙈



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    #515
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,401 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Fax chart for T+120 is a thing of beauty to behold, deep freezer dry...but its always T+120, i'll start believing it when it starts moving closer.

    image.png


    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #516
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    A not insignificant warming is underway over the Arctic resulting in a weak polar vortex in the heart of winter with potential for another attack on the PV in mid to late January. The NAO stays in negative territory for the foreseeable. Model output universally backs a much colder spell from the weekend after next. I never underestimate the potential for potential cold weather in this corner of the world to collapse as we get closer, but the signals strongly favour a fairly decent cold spell.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #517
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Gfs 06z (low Res run) is remarkable for next weekend into the following week.

    animpeh1.gif
    animvfk3.gif


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #518
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569604#Comment_121569604

    It would be nice to see the time scale getting closer than further away.

    Spectacular to look at though.



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    #519
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,175 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Yes great runs which is what this thread is for post 120. We all know though how quick it can go pear shaped for Ireland anyway.



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    #520
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569635#Comment_121569635

    The middle of the month was always the one to watch. Looking cold till then and all the models currently pointing at about the 15th for the real cold/snow Looking great so far



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    #521
    odyboody
    Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭odyboody


    It all looks great unfortunately its all the (T120+ onwards) that keeps getting updated.

    It would be nice to see something appearing in the (up to t120) thread.



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    #522
    almostthere12
    Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭almostthere12


    P6 from the GEFS 06z is a thing of beauty and is the coldest of the ens:

    image.png




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    #523
    tiegan
    Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭tiegan


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569675#Comment_121569675

    Well I won't get too excited until we get a dedicated thread which will mean game on!!!!!



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    #524
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Will cross post this in the T<120 thread, but isn't the GFS 6z a bit of a downgrade for this weekend/ early next week? I thought we might be looking at some streamers by Monday but as per the below charts the GFS (which, God knows, predicts snow a lot when there is no chance) its just rain falling....

    040124 for Monday 080124 850 hpa.gif
    040124 for Monday 080124 precipitation.gif
    040124 for Monday 080124 snow.gif




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    #525
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568994#Comment_121568994

    MTC is supreme at identifying medium term weather prospects. His reading of the situation in today's forecast up to next week is spot on and anything beyond that is probably best left in threads like this for us to discuss. He also doesn't have the same luxury of getting things wrong as I and many more often do without the consequences of being quoted by media. Invariably, the Atlantic wins out in our neck of the woods so a milder solution is still possible. Our chances of a real cold blast of weather around mid month are, however, much higher than normal and what makes it extra unusual is that such cold would land in mid winter. Interesting times.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #526
    almostthere12
    Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭almostthere12


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570036#Comment_121570036

    GEM with -8 uppers gives us a bit alright but usually that is a lot more conservative than the GFS with snow!!


    image.png




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    #527
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Some very nice charts this morning but sadly the good stuff is so far away deep in FI. The dry and cold weather will be most welcome over the coming week or more but in reality most of us here want the good stuff, the white gold and that is in pure fantasy land right now, so I'm going to keep my feet on the ground for now until we get to a much more reliable time frame. I suspect the following week is going to be full of scares and delights.

    P6 from the GEFS 06z posted earlier is what I want, it's direct hit perfection but there is almost a 0% chance of things working out exactly like that with over 10 days to go.

    Post edited by Gonzo on


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    #528
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,046 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ireland has had over 200 blizzards in the past decade at +300hrs

    Few if any ever materialise. Will this one? It most likely will be moderated a lot but will the moderated version still be cold enough for snow. I've been stung too often to even raise an eyebrow at these fantasy charts. Sure any of us can colour a chart blue and say it will snow. You don't need to spend billions on incorrect computer models that invariably get it wrong.

    Unless this chart is for tomorrow I can't be convinced. Sorry.



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    #529
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Have no mistake for the South and Southeast coast there is potential early next week. You would imagine minus 8 uppers would be enough to kick off some light snow showers....its all down to the 850s really they must be lower than minus 6 minimum



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    #530
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570427#Comment_121570427

    That is very true we probably have had well over 100 blizzards in FI over the past decade and only 1 happened. Another way of looking at it is for the current FI modeling we still have about 40 model runs to go before we get to the wintry stuff which is 11/12 days away. What can possibly go wrong in over 40 model runs!



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    #531
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,016 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571003#Comment_121571003

    When you put it that way, its all grand ! 😂



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    #532
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    Up she goes.


    And then...

    Untitled Image

    Go on Pauldry and Gonzo jump on board you know you want to:)



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    #533
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    At the risk of contradicting what I just said, I do have slight concerns about that low to the south west. It could be a snowmaker or bring about an abrupt halt to the cold spell on future runs. It's fine margins.



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    #534
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,702 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The foundations for the medium term are in place on the 12zs so far. Could be something special brewing.



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    #535
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571417#Comment_121571417

    Yeah it's a wait and see,it all depends on how much Denmark air has drifted in,as that will be almost as cold as the 850 air



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    #536
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571417#Comment_121571417

    Yes I'd rather it just stayed out of the way. Im not a gambler so I'm not into high risk / high reward. Whenever we get cold spells I like the Atlantic weather to stay well away. Wouldn't worry about it yet though , get the cold in first.



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    #537
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571545#Comment_121571545

    Well if its a sign of things to come,today's weather fronts are an English Channel slider, only affecting the south of England,so maybe the Atlantic is already getting the message ?



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    #538
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571659#Comment_121571659

    It's the North East winds I want.. they really deliver the goods..



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    #539
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 24,037 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571672#Comment_121571672

    Not on their own. The sea remains warmer than average, we need to see those upper temps established and a nice long fetch of air mass from far in the East.

    After that, the winds can be anywhere from NW to S, as we saw with Storm Emma, which was a mild and moist Atlantic system being squeezed up and over a deep freeze SE airflow.



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    #540
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571417#Comment_121571417

    The GEFS ens mean keeps those lows well to our south. I checked the perturbations and 3 of the 32 have a similar low as seen on the Op run.

    The mean very much favours retrogression and a Greenland block and sets up next weekend's (into the following week) sweep of cold from the northeast. It's a colder run (mean temps) than the morning run re: next weekend into the following week. The models have been very bulliush about this. It's a long time since we have seen such charts.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #541
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571672#Comment_121571672

    Then ideally we have an Atlantic attack which stalls giving rise to a three day blizzard before a stonking northerly with -12 upper air set in afterwards bringing further heavy snow courtesy of a polar low or three. No half measures here!



This discussion has been closed.
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