FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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That could easily give a spell of light snow along the South Coast on Tuesday!! In fact as there is model agreement of minus 8s skirting the South I think it's more than likely. Watch the ppn charts pick it up once uppers remain as they are. PS, just relevant to Cork 😆
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The 12z ensembles are interesting from both the GFS and GEM. Both have upgraded the cold potential with less in the way of milder runs so less scatter to deal with. Both operational runs are not outliers as there are colder members.
Looks largely dry until January 15th and after that we have a wetter trend but given how cold it looks on this ensemble graph most of that would be snow if this verified. An outside chance of some light snow flurries especially around the 8th to 10th of January in the short term.
Not as much scatter on the GEM compared to previous days as many of the milder runs after January 15th have now been eliminated.
The mild upper air temperatures between 10th and 14th of January are mostly due to high pressure but with inversion most likely it won't be mild here on the surface.
The CFS is also now going for cold weather and looking at the extended we stay mostly cool or cold until February 26th with only brief milder interludes lasting not much more than a day or two.
The NAO/AO are set to remain negative, although there is a trend back towards neutral on the NAO while the AO is set to remain firmly negative with some of the scatter going to record breaking levels of negativity.
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Latest ECM update is looking good.
The next 7 days as we know will be high pressure dominated for us.
Week 2 is when we expect the high to move further north and west with perhaps lower pressure over us bringing in wintry showers or possibly snow at times.
Large pinches of salt from here.
Final week of January sees a Scandinavian/Siberian high type scenario.
1st week of February the high moves east to west and sets up back over Greenland.
Weeks 5 and 6 have weak signals been so far out but they still show a Greenland high in place.
I find it hard to believe we could end up with the final 7 weeks of winter properly dominated by northern blocking with both Greenland and Scandi highs in play at all times. I'm sure the Atlantic will try and get it's foot in the door at some point.
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Gfs holding firm with retrogression to Greenland and a northeasterner incoming on Sunday week.
Deep cold is fully over Ireland by the Monday. Quite the setup with heights extending from Newfoundland to Siberia. Polar air is spilling down to lower latitudes. Remarkable consistency across all models now. Maybe...
Bonkers setup in midwinter with a juggernaut of a snowmaker approaching out of Iceland
Getting that cold in next weekend is the key but it's a long way off yet. The difference in output compared to the 12z (below). Gfs is trying to grapple with all that is going on up north. Trend is your friend etc
Another plus for cold potential is the distinct lack of heights over Iberia or the mid continent allowing colder air from the north to flood south with greater ease
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Less favourable 850s are negated by previous deeper cold and the time of year. The wraparound on that system would produce snow either way.
Cold keeps going. This will be as big as a bust as I can remember if it all goes Pete tong.
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The mean remains intact irrespective of what this op run has shown at least. This is for Saturday week
The label suggests most members are backing an impending much colder intrusion from our north
Of the models that go out to 240 hours, here is what they are showing
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Ensembles heading in the right direction if you're looking for colder weather with fewer milder members. Daytime 2m temps in low single figures beyond the weekend.
In the below chart, it will worth keeping an eye out for colder 850s and whether they start popping up in future runs for the 13th-15th period.
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