FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Last February we had little or no rain for the whole month.

It does happen.

MET EIREANN EXTENDED RANGE UPDATE,

Week 1 (Monday 08 January to Sunday 14 January)

 High pressure is expected to dominate our weather during week 1 of the forecast period. As a result, conditions are expected to be drier than average across the country. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average and possibly up to 4 degrees below average in some western and southwestern areas.

Week 2 (Monday 15 January to Sunday 21 January)

 Week 2 will likely see high pressure situated to the northwest and low pressure situated over the continent. As a result, precipitation amounts are signalled to be close to normal or slightly above along eastern coastal areas but elsewhere precipitation is expected to below average. Temperatures into week 2 are also signalled to remain below average.

Week 3 (Monday 22 January to Sunday 28 January)

 Looking ahead to week 3, confidence in the forecast begins to wane, however current indications suggest a signal for high pressure to exert influence. This again will generally lead to colder than average conditions mainly for the west and southwest. Precipitation amounts look like remaining below average or close to average in most areas, with slightly above average values in southern and eastern coastal counties.

Week 4 (Monday 29 January to Sunday 04 February)

 Looking ahead to week 4, uncertainty in the forecast increases once again. A weak signal for high pressure to persist is signalled. With temperatures likely to remain around average for the period. Drier than average conditions in most areas are also signalled.

What we don't want to see is a trend for the gfs members in increasing numbers to follow the op then have others models followed suit. We don't want the scatter to become a flip. A mid latitude block seems to be what the UKMO texted forecast has in mind, this would not be the worst outcome provided it's far enough away to allow a proper northerly in. It might not be the best outcome if it's really deep cold and a sustained cold spell you seek, but as long it's cold enough for it to snow and stick around for a bit most of us would be happy in the end

Yes, it seems fairly clear they don't envisage a Greenland high, but it does suggest we can get a northerly and perhaps a good one. I could be wrong but my reading of the Met Eireann long range is something smiliar, so again we could have an airmass that is bone dry for the majority or something a bit better. I think it's safe to say we will say goodbye to the puddles for a while in any case . Is there any poster out there who is going to miss them?

Just on the UKMO , the update for final week of January is rather interesting. It mentions possible snow events due to Atlantic incursions, the caveat being that might be just for the UK while we are the wrong side of marginal

In more recent times i would agree with you, but when I was younger we often had decent northerlies, granted they didn't last very long though. December 2000 and 2010 being the notable exception in terms of longetivity.

GEM remains right on track for a plunge of cold air from the northeast on Sunday week (9 days). It is a near perfect run synoptics wise. GFS is drastically different to the morning run, though it is an improvement on same re: cold. A low system impedes the development of the high. Might be one of those op runs that may not be well supported but that's 24 hours of the GFS producing some kind of a shortwave. In fact, GFS seems ratgher keen on a westerly-based negative NAO which makes it nigh on impossible to predict what outcome there will be. GEM below. All eyes on ECM

UKMO looks decent too

A west based NAO is usually bad for us if the jet isn't far enough south. I hope the GFS is not on to something with these recent runs introducing spoiler shortwaves, let's hope it's a bit of an outlier among its members

Going through the GEM perturbations and they are excellent up to next weekend but beyond 240hrs split into two camps, namely a fully restored Atlantic southwesterly or a screaming easterly. Beyond 120 hours is Disneyland at this stage but just an observation that a post middle of the month split is developing that wasn't there up to last night. Gfs is not much different post 240 hours to gem.

Lends itself to MTCs morning forecast

If ever a chart, left you scratching your head this is it . A stunning NH profile, but still it's a struggle to get the deep cold in for us.

The villain of the piece from December is seemingly back again to spoil things

I knew it wasn't a good sign when the scatter started to emerge. Sometimes an op run like the GFS can lead the way against the ensembles and then more ensembles start to trend wrong . I fear we could now see yet more ensembles flip to a milder outcome. Not a great start to the weekend, unfortunately.

Really dislike how the Alaskan heights are pulling those Greenland heights away which makes the -NAO west based. The GFS seen this and now the ECM too. What a load of rubbish. Roll on spring.

Issue with going by those verification stats is they are only relevant for the current point in time like the Kp index in chasing auroras. Can be a good guide depending on the circumstance but doesn't preclude quick changes in trend or flips that the poor performing model can witness.

I am fed up of winter. Genuinely lost any bit of interest I have had in it.

Why is it so bloody hard to get heights to stay over Greenland!!

Anyway, let's see what the ECM mean looks like.

Let's try keep the faith. There was always going to be wobbles after those perfect charts last two days. It's never ever plane sailing for deep cold and snow in this country.