FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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The 18z GFS op run isn't without support and will rest somewhere in the middle of just north of the middle of the pack. The overall mean is a tad milder than the 12z I think but we may see a wider spread beyond 240hrs. The fact that is post 666 in the thread is not a good sign.
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Red flag hoisted. The milder members on various models have some credence with the NAO aiming toward positive territory around the 18th or so. Very much in keeping with MTCs closing line in his morning forecast.
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An interesting approach on the GFS. Building an upper Greenland High from the north more so than from the south (although they will meet). This is not shared with other models as of yet. This should mean colder air ejected from the most northern latitudes further south.
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A decent mean from the GEFS
Gem mean not so good with a lot of members showing a stronger Atlantic influence.
There does appear to be a trend toward a milder Atlantic influence on our weather as we move beyond the middle of the month on the ensembles.
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
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ECM op run is mixed for cold prospects and gets into trouble around day 6. Picks up by day 8-9 or so. Contrast below. It does bring the cold in the last two frames.
Op run overview: A really good gfs and gem, good icon and ukmo, and average ecm overnight.
Ens overview: Gefs ensembles and UKMO are excellent, but gem is average. ECM won't be out until 8am or so and will clarify the mid run wobble regarding heights.
That deep cold over North America in a week's time might serve to fire some life back into the Atlantic. MTCs forecast invokes some confidence that the signal is somewhat weak regarding this milder push or a westerly -NAO.
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
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We need both the ECM and GEM much more confident to be confident ourselves of a cold outbreak developing in 10 to 14 days time. Until we get rid of the scatter I do not feel confident.
A huge range of scatter from 5 days time onwards. This will end up either going mild to very mild or cold to extremely cold.
Not as much scatter with the GEM compared to the ECM but still too many mild members for comfort.
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Whatever about the GFS, I think the ECM is not convincing (yet). Be interested to see what the 06ECMWF ens do shortly.
A relatively quick return to a milder zonal pattern in about 11-12 days also has been cropping up on most model output since Thursday evening. Nao does return to neutral status by then, according to the Index forecast. That too can alter of course
Ant y strat warmings could produce a vastly different outcome to the above too so we may not get model consistency anytime soon.
Edit update: 06z ecm tidies up the 00z heights mess over Greenland. 12z ecm should bring about a smoother transition to that colder airmass later next weekend unless some other fly drops into the ointment.
Additional edit. UKMO long range has updated. We are moving to Defcon 2 for the Atlantic 😫
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
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