FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

The 12z ICON is synoptically perfect because it has retrogression of the high to Greenland and draws in a northeasterly as early as next Saturday. One of the most impressive runs of the last week. It's cleaner in how it draws in colder air next weekend.

Yes, provided we are not looking on as England gets snow while we are on the wrong side of marginal. Maybe that's his fear with that update as they do mention rain in the south of England. If they are getting rain it's more likely we would too. In that case it's a disappointing update. I'd prefer a two week bone dry cold spell over cold rain.

Just for fun even though it’s 11 days out. Now if this was in a 72hr window I’d be very excited.

Apparently there is a difference between a low with polar origins and a true polar low. The latter can't be modelled in advance, they develop in the flow. So when I said that last night there was a polar low incoming it seems i was wrong.

Are we looking at 6pm approx for the 12Z ECM?

I associate them with Aidan Nulty. I am not sure if you know him , he was a forecaster for Met Eireann in the 80s and much of the 90s. Well anyway he was doing the forecast the times I remember us having polar lows. They can be fantastic as they can deliver heavy snow for several hours to the bulk of the country . In other scenarios some regions always miss out.

Gfs sets up that battleground scenario mentioned earlier.

Was there one in late December 2000? I am sure there were others I am forgetting,but they are rare enough events.

I don't know the Seamus Miller fellow. Maybe he was before my time. Wasn't there a Paddy McHugh around that era too?

850hpa is often around 1,500m above sea level.

That must be written by Gerry Murphy. You can expect that to change if the evening run shows the cold winning. I don't think they see the evening run much before we do.