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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #752
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Update on previous, ensembles similar to the 12z up to 168hrs on gfs but not as cold thereafter indicating the op run is on the colder side of the mean. The heights to our south are holding back the coldest air over Scotland and northeast Ulster.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #753
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    More hints in the 18z of another potential minor to major warming around final week of January.



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    #754
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581228#Comment_121581228

    A repeat of what happened in December with Iberian heights as the spoiler.



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    #755
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581259#Comment_121581259

    Yes, Nacho. Overall though, tomorrow's output will be very interesting and the trend right now is for battleground territory for next weekend. I will take that over mild muck that we are normally staring at in January. Also, Gonzo just extended winter by another month in his post so all is good 😛

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #756
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It does seem to be shaping up as per the UKMO texted forecast.

    Untitled Image

    It would be nice if the Arctic High here pushed the whole lot down on top of us. Who would be the first to blink then?



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    #757
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581268#Comment_121581268

    Yes another exciting 18 hours of analysis of charts that possibly will or wont happen...what an amazing and mad hobbie this is 😀.

    One way of looking at this is if all the outputs GEM, ECM UKMO etc were all looking fantastic a week out there would be only one direction they could go and thats downgrade. At least we have room now for upgrades and some charts are looking very good which hopefully will hold true. Looking forward to the next 2 to 3 days which will tell a story or two.



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    #758
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Surely in these scenarios fi I much closer then usual. Next weekend won't be sorted I reckon till Tuesday or Wednesday



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    #759
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581323#Comment_121581323

    It all boils down to the high settled over us right now and his it orientates later this week. A few degrees angle change has significant implications downstream. The 18z looks very wedgy which is a new development. Whether it's overegged Pacific Ridging or something else, the Greenland block just seems to evaporate. The deep cold forecast for North America of course is like a booster shot for the Atlantic to kick back into action normally so it also could be that.

    UKMO has been calling January for three weeks now. Its latest outlook is perfectly aligned to its own model. Met forecast is closest to its model of choice (ECM). A westerly -NAO. Atlantic has been signalled for the last two days so let's see what tomorrow does to that high.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #760
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581347#Comment_121581347

    Its a high wire act to firstly get a Greenland High ,never mind maintaining it. Either some background drivers like AAM causes the Pacific High to amplify too much, or cold in North America exerts too much pressure on the block and it collapses. Oh for the seamless countdown in February 2018 but back then we had the major ssw among other teleconnections working in our favour. I think blackbriar was right in what he said a few years back about them. As you say let's see what tomorrow brings.



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    #761
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121581370#Comment_121581370

    One crumb of comfort before tomorrow is the latest ENS for Tuesday week. Perhaps, we will see either the 00z or 12z ECM move toward such a solution. I just find it difficult to believe that weeks old blocking signals can vanish. If blocking is to disappear from subsequent output, then January 2024 is up there as one of the greatest winter weather fails. I am beginning to understand what it must feel like to follow the Mayo footballers.

    image.png.ac8a02ff109b16a593d06973730b3c2a.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #762
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The MOGREPS for Dublin is its coldest yet. The ECM appears to be the one model not fully on board a cold blast next weekend but it still brings in cold in stages and the 00z is better than the 12z. Gem has trended much colder and the 06z gfs mean is much improved on the 00z with better retrogression and the atlantic shortwave further south. I think that a cold blast from next Sunday remains firmly on track. I'll post more details soon.

    Latest Gfs and MOGREPS for Dublin below

    Screenshot_2024-01-07-11-34-58-927-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg


    mogreps850dublin.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #763
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    Take pert 12 from 06z


    Screenshot_20240107_122004_Chrome.jpg
    Screenshot_20240107_122131_Chrome.jpg
    Screenshot_20240107_122156_Chrome.jpg


    Post edited by sicknotexi on


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    #764
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It seems to me it's all trending to a battle ground scenario in deep fi or a return to milder conditions. Hopefully if it's the latter, it's only a brief interruption. A robust Greenland high looks unlikely now,but as some people say wedges can lead to sledges.



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    #765
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121582387#Comment_121582387

    I think the general trend this morning is slightly better in terms of building the GL block, looks like a stronger signal than yesterday. Or at least it's not trending in the wrong direction anymore.

    Amplification seems disappear pretty soon but as long as it happens first is the main thing. Who knows what will happen after that.



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    #766
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    GEM and GFS both turning colder for next weekend.

    Write a subtitle(1).jpg

    Met Eireann has now dropped any mention of next weekend in its online forecast. We should get an update in the evening. Yesterday's forecast was based on the Saturday 00z ECM and was reflective of what it was showing. This eve we will probably get a 'turning colder with temps 3-6c and overnight frosts' update based on today's 00z ECM.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #767
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Only the ICON but beggars can't be choosers. Il take it.

    image.png

    Straight Northerly very cold my own preference would be NE.



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    #768
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Excellent 12z ICON and an upgrade on the 00z. Much better angle on the sinking colder airmass on Sunday (7 days away!). Decent Greenland block in place. The Atlantic low also is much flatter. The cold also arrives 12 hours earlier than the 00z.


    icon-1-174.png
    iconnh-0-174.png
    iconnh-1-174.png
    icon-1-180.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #769
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,702 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    12z ICON is a clean enough evolution. I'd bank this at day 6.

    Untitled Image




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    #770
    almostthere12
    Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭almostthere12


    Anyone know which are the better models when it comes to Greenland blocking verifying?

    Gem, Icon and ukmo getting way further into Greenland with that high in comparison to the current gfs run and of course the ecm.



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    #771
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,183 ✭✭✭pad199207


    GEM and ICON are a bit of me this evening, GFS perhaps not handling the potential setup well



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    #772
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Genuinely don't know what to make of the GFS as it demolishes the block quite early. Not discounting it but I am fairly certain it is a rogue Op run.


    The GEM, which likewise could be a rogue run, is incredibly cold with significant potential for a lengthier cold spell. Two upgrades in a row for the Canadian which had never really bought in to next Sunday's cold outbreak.

    gemnh-1-210.png
    gemnh-0-210.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #773
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GEM certainly looks good to great for cold and potentially snowy weather, the GFS 12z is not looking great, a bit more like the recent ECMs but until all the GFS runs complete we will look at the 12z operational and see how it compares to the overall trend which still looks messy.

    As for the long range model they are all trending mild for the final 7 to 9 days of January and opening week of February with hints of things becoming colder again in February so a return to mild may not last much longer than 1 to 2 weeks. If the CFS is anything to go by February could have the most noteworthy cold spells of this winter.



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    #774
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121583132#Comment_121583132

    In fairness, the GFS does go cold by day 8 into 9 and it could be quite wintry. The cold just gets here in a complete different fashion tot be icon and gem. In fact, the GFS may have just taken a step toward the ECM. Gfs loves the FI cold but regularly backs off once you hit day 7 territory. Awaiting the UKMO 168 now as the 140 is like the icon and GEM

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #775
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    UKMO decent too. Very close to the GEM

    ukmo-1-168.png
    ukmo-0-168.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #776
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GEM is easily the best I've seen modeled, if only the GFS and ECM followed this.

    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image

    I would feel much more confident if all models were modeling the above.

    The KMA is different again and much more of a battleground scenario.

    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image

    The Atlantic tries to make a move but is clearly struggling and this could have alot of wintry potential.

    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image




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    #777
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS 12z still rolling out, it looked like it was going in a milder direction but looks like cold is winning the battle as we go further on.

    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image

    If we can try and get an improvement to the ECM 12z maybe I might jump back onboard but so far I find todays models an improvement over yesterday.



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    #778
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121583257#Comment_121583257

    Yes indeed only trouble is the Day 10 charts are now being rolled out for Day 14!! Lol we can't get tomorrow right at the moment. Ukmo and gem very good



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    #779
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM has wobbled for 2 days now, what will the the 12z bring, we should know within the next hour. I really hope the ECM swings back towards the GEM and UKMO but probably it won't.



This discussion has been closed.
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