Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2023/2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Entering a more unsettled spell of weather from later Tuesday, strong frontal winds and heavy rain on Weds, quite windy in the SW and along coastal areas, blustery overland. Models beggining to show a storm on Thursday, a few of them brining very strong winds into Ireland but not all in agreement yet on track or strength so a bit to go yet but leaning towards very strong winds and heavy rain with high totals showing up especially in the SW, S, SE higher ground in the E, parts of the W.

Edit: copied and moved post from wrong thread 😴

More models looking windy to very windy to stormy on Sunday, fast moving, goes past or through relatively quick. A bit to go yet to see if it holds its track and intensity but one to watch.

UKMO in steroids theses days, usually turns down the dial closer to the event.

ECM 12OZ throwing in a stormy Saturday now, small and very fast moving systems, track is everything.

Very fast jet and Isobars tightening over Ireland increasingly so from Weds giving a breezy to blustery day more so towards evening and getting increasingly windy through Thursday countrywide, quite strong in coastal counties especially Northern, all associated with a Storm with a very large Wind Field which is set to form and move down past the the NW of Scotland , through the North sea and into Northern Europe. Looks like it could be named, could bring very strong winds to the UK and into the likes of Holland , Denmark and Germany.

Quite wet on Thursday, becoming increasingly cooler, chance of some wintry showers towards Fri in Northern counties, may not last long though as the weather could switch milder again.

Very big seas off Atlantic coasts with strong onshore breezes associated with now named Storm Pia . Prolonged strong winds over land from later Weds through much of Thurs. Rain not a huge issue but probably a good runoff from higher terrain in the W, NW and N and a few inland elevated areas.

Relatively mild at around 10 or 11C during Thurs.

Some very big rainfall totals for the 24hrs into Weds afternoon and a lot of it will have fallen overnight into early morning so spot flooding a risk.

More counties could be added to the rainfall warnings. Becoming breezy to windy across the country later Tues into Weds, quite windy along W, NW, N, NE and later into the SW, S, SE and E coastal areas.

Weds evening set to become very windy or even stormy in the SW or W or both and along S, SE, W coasts and very strong winds overland into Thurs and only slowly moderating , remaining blustery in the Northern half of the country into the evening/ night . Would expect warnings, mostly yellow and possibly close to Orange in the SW or W or both.

After the frontal rains go through on Weds turning more convective in nature with hail and thunderstorms possible especially along Atlantic counties as we are under a very cold upper pool, some moving inland and squally in nature. Some sleet showers also in the mix. A lot of vorticity and shear in the atmosphere... wonder will we hear of any funnels or Tornadoes.

Turning cooler then of late and more so given the windchill effect. A much rougher passage of weather then of late with strong winds, high rainfall and cold temperatures.

Very high sea states, want to keep an eye on those high tides on Weds and Thurs ( Spring tides ) along the Atlantic Seaboard, especially Thurs with all the run off from the heavy rain into Weds especially around the SW, S coasts.

A bit to go yet with Saturdays system. Deepening on approach but so far keeping the strongest winds to coastal areas in the W, SW, S, SE and blustery overland. Very wet again along the W and SW and could see some wintry falls in the NW, N and on elevated ground in the W and maybe a few more spots.

The large system on Saturday showing different tracks on the main models but currently does not look to produce storm force winds on land, not as tight isobars, looks worse than what it will probably produce. Relatively slow moving but the position of the center crossing the country keeps the strongest winds offshore. Windy certainly around the coastal areas may warrant yellow warnings, maybe orange sea area warnings.

Some models showing the initial front to cross the country early Saturday as brining heavy rain and blustery conditions. A lot of rain to come between here and Sunday with Atlantic coastal counties getting the most.

Parameters present for Thunderstorm activity on Saturday following the front in the more unstable airmass but mostly around the coasts over water, CAPE is not huge but plenty of LLS and DLS with decent Lapse rates at times, will see if a few migrate further inland. A lot of Vorticity in the system and very cold uppers all aiding convection. Perhaps more opportunities for Tornadoes but as ever relatively low chance, squally showers with downdraughts and hail showers possible, sleety on higher ground.

Wintry further North Fri into Saturday. Could be a fair dump of wet sleet to snow on Saturday in the NW, N and high ground in the W perhaps as the front meets the colder airmass. Still windy on Sunday with showers mainly along Atlantic coastal areas. Looks a lot drier and calmer for Bank Holiday Monday at present.

Quite windy in the SW tomorrow. Plenty of showers and rain along the coasts, a few hail showers too possible

Hp becoming dominant, slack airs, very low levels of precipitation, fog over the weekend especially Sunday morning and again possibly Sun night. Widespread frosts becoming a feature and getting colder as the days go on, low temperatures during the day, freezing early at night especially from Sunday could see freezing before or just after dark from Monday. Good sunshine levels Fri, Sat and for a good part of the country on Sunday , foggy conditions might be slow to clear and lift in parts of the Southern half of the country. GFS is a bit less cold as the week goes on but remains frosty at night, ECM keeps it very cold and sees some days struggling to get up a few degrees in places with widespread hard frosts.