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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,033 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    In an ideal world buildings built as residential in desirable areas would remain as such, and the businesses operating in them would take the empty space in large office buildings.

    Of course we do not live in a country where the state is all powerful (thank god), so instead we should incentivise it.

    Commercial rates should be much higher on ex residential per sqm and lower on a purpose built office block (per sqm) to encourage businesses to relocate to office blocks if the space is available. When rate demands are set every year the % vacancy of office/commercial in the area and residential demand in the area should skew rates up or down for businesses operating out of ex-residential properties.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,488 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    I get that logic but in the example given it’s talking about moving businesses from premises on the Main Street in Limerick to a vacant soviet building. It’s like saying forget about any long term city development plan and convert Arnotts on O’connels street to residential for social housing and let tax payer pick up the bill.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,479 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Not entirely true. First off even college students get jobs at 16-17 so technically they enter the workforce then and they will have broken service

    However we are moving to a 40 year system over the next ten years where 40 is total and you pension is the number of of years contributing

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,650 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    The modern state pension can be traced back to Otto Von Bismark. When first instituted, the age at which one could apply was 70, and this was at a time when few people lived to see such an age. Thus, only a tiny fraction of Prussians ever lived to see a pension. Today, the average person can reasonably expect to live into their 80s, even if they are not in good health. Ergo, a pension age in the 60s is anachronistic.

    The above is bad enough, but it's compounded by falling birth rates in Western countries and inflation. Simply saving for retirement is not enough. Pension funds need to constantly invest their funds in order to have enough wealth to pay out a reasonably pension in the future. This is why we have investment funds hoovering up farm land, housing and other such resources. Thus, in addition to having to deal with inflation in the here and now, younger people need to compete with these funds to secure resources.

    We can go on and on about this, but it can be summarised by calling the pension system an upside down triangle. Funding the massive welfare and pension systems with an aging population is bleeding the West white, and the measures that the state takes to address this are ruinous. Simply put, we do not live on an infinite planet, and this reality is really starting to bite.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,600 ✭✭✭Villa05



    2 good articles, the evolution of public private "partnership" under FFG and it's enormous taxpayer cost



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,448 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    They already have a reason to stay. But young people see an opportunity to travel/experience new countries and lifestyles, and they take it.

    It is a stretch to claim they are moving due to housing, it may be a consideration, but it is by no means the only one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,600 ✭✭✭Villa05


    It's a simple point, if we are incapable of building much needed infrastructure we have no business Demolishing perfectly usable buildings.

    Just for example. A grinds and 2nd level private school occupy the former Limerick county Council offices, they could easily be accommodated in Sarsfield house and there current accommodation would be much easier to convert to residential

    Example2

    Create a financial/legal centre where all the services you need to buy a home are on one floor of Sarsfield house. Would this be beneficial to consumers and service providers?

    Creating more accommodation options in the city centre transforms it into a living city with all businesses benefitting from the potential spike in population.

    I don't know where you got point 3 from my posts


    Or maybe we continue as we are and let buildings crumble or the take back control crowd can burn everything down and save us a few bob on demolition costs



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,488 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Point 3 comes from the fact that the majority of Limerick’s residents would not buy these converted properties because they would cost twice what a new house in the suburbs would cost…most expensive land in Limerick, working with listed buildings in a city centre. By default it would be a housing body or government that would only have the finances to buy just like a lot of new apartment blocks up and down the country. That is unless you expect the builders to carry out the work and sell at a loss.



  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭fartooreasonable


    Housing seems to be by far the biggest reason but it also is a contributor to other reasons. Oft cited is things like friends moving over, lack of employment opportunities and lack of lifestyle all of which housing will play a major part in.

    Housing isn't just the biggest reason, it's the reason for the other factors.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,600 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The listed building system does not work if its a detterent. The only way to save these structures is to use common sense and modern materials. Would modern windows on a Georgian home spell disaster or is it better to let them fall into dereliction

    I'm aware of one owner who's contemplating converting from commercial to residential as one would get far more in income. can't be the only one

    Some operate as free museums to satisfy the die hards



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,600 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Heard Lorcan sirr on the newspaper panel saying that in Oz you can offset education debt against income tax, could be a big draw



  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭fartooreasonable


    Rental income against income tax too. Was in a economics explained video recently.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,479 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Ya but you pay for not only third level but for primary and post primary as well.

    It all virtually free in Ireland

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,448 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    You have claimed to work in the health sector, as do I, in fact all my family do. We know a considerable number of health sector staff who have gone to Australia, Doctors, nurses etc, not one, not one of them said it was due to housing. It is career opportunities, working conditions, and yes, they just want to go there and live in the sunshine.

    As I have said, housing may be a consideration, but people traveled abroad to work for a variety of reasons, it’s rarely just one.

    But I suppose it suits your narrative, so you no doubt are not for turning.

    By the way, I am all for young people travelling abroad to experience other working environments, I did it myself, as have my kids, better to go abroad then to stay here and whinge about how unfair life is.

    Post edited by Dav010 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭fartooreasonable


    I can speak anecdotally for myself and my colleagues but when we graduated we all did intern year and a good number left and about 50% came back. The rest stayed out there, I've cousins did that and stayed.

    The difference is now I'm more senior as are my colleagues and there are still people moving out and housing is a major factor in it. The reasons are pretty identical you have people like me who don't have houses and want to go because it's just hard to get something worth it and youve people who have houses and either can't trade up with a family or own properties one which the mortgage amount doesn't match the quality of life they expect. That adds into seeing our colleagues out there living a better lifestyle for more money and with more tax breaks.

    At present we are seeing nurses living in Spain 3 weeks and doing a 1 week of work in the national maternity hospital. Increasing numbers of GPs are now locums and rural areas increasingly cannot get doctors. The HSE cannot recruit for about 2000 consultant positions and almost every about to start intern in the SWAH cancelled their FY2 at the last minute to work in Sligo because the pay was better (that causes major safety issues there for the HSC in NI). This contrasts against what people are expecting from their medical services in having efficient safe service yet housing in most positions seems to be a major contributor to prevent it.

    I'm not saying there isn't other reasons but housing is there as both a massive reason and a massive contributor to other reasons for why people young and old are leaving and the longer we let this continue the less competitive and less attractive Ireland will be for talent and investment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,448 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    I’m 20 years ahead of you, and a considerable number of my class also went to the US/UK/Canada/Australia, some came back, some didn’t, twas ever thus. My wife is an A&E Dr, and quite a few staff have left, and I’ve been to quite a few going away parties, but none of them were because of housing. They all went because they want something different, and actually want to do it now before they are tied down to a mortgage.

    You can’t just make sweeping statements that housing is the main reason health staff are leaving, for some it may be, but they have a qualification which allows them to work virtually anywhere in the world with guaranteed employment, so they are taking an opportunity. There are major issues in the HSE, just as there are in the Uk (daughter a Dr there), and other countries, few countries are perfect. If a hospital Dr/nurse can work less hours, have better work supports, a better work life balance, better opportunities for advancement, and live in the sunshine, buying a house is not the most important consideration for a twenty something. Now I can’t speak for other professions or sectors, but you can cut the bolony that buying a house is the most important consideration for healthcare workers going to Oz, it just isn’t.



  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭fartooreasonable


    Well firstly it isn’t 2003 anymore, the economics and demographics of those in healthcare are substantially different. We now have a substantial number of graduate entry medics who pay 30k per year and direct entry pay more per year than I paid for my entire med school stay. The price of rent near universities are now so expensive that my niece’s school (in NI) is now coaching them on not going to Dublin and encouraging students to apply for Oxford, Cambridge and other prestigious universities as it is cheaper, and the dropout rate is lower because of this. The wage in real world terms for NCHDs has also dropped with the wage disparity being atrocious between here and other English-speaking nations.

    In your post you make the point that things haven’t changed in the last 20 years, and you state that “buying a house is not the most important consideration for a twenty something” yet those are contrary statements. 20 years ago, the rates of home ownership for people in their 20s were greater than now so if things haven’t changed there must be a large number of 20somethings out there wanting a house and not seeing it possible in this market. Excluding medics from this when debt has increased, and wage value has decreased in the intervening 20 years this doesn’t really make sense.  

    Of course, other factors will play a part in emigration like workplace conditions but to discount housing doesn’t make sense. Medics get paid less proportional, are more in debt and emigration is now easier with a faster route to home ownership and a better lifestyle to boot.

    What I do feel on a personal level is wrong is the number of people telling us that economic and social issues such as brain drain of skilled workers abroad is “normal and expected” and that nothing should be done to counter it. Be the underlying reasons housing or conditions the idea that we don’t listen and change nothing is shortsighted and decreasing the competitiveness of the country. Ireland is not immune to market forces and no exceptionalism exists to prevent the good economic fortunes of the last decades reversing if it takes its eyes off the ball.

    Finally in your post before this you stated I am weaving a narrative yet are you not doing the same thing here claiming this is not an issue? You also stated that “You have claimed to work in the health sector” in a dismissive tone yet neither of us have proved we work in the health sector at all. You claim to be 20 years senior to me so is it not possible that we have different viewpoints from our interactions and experiences in the past? Do you not think that I may have slightly better hold on the trends and views of those in their 20s and 30s considering that I am one of them. This alongside your comments the previous week expanding on something I didn’t say imply you aren’t truly listening to what I am saying and projecting what you think I am saying which isn’t conducive to debate and understanding the ‘otherside’.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Apply now. Get all your ducks in a row. Clear any potential obstacles.

    Once you have approval on your current salary it’s a relatively easy process to increase the loan amount for a higher salary.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭DataDude


    There are levels of AIP.

    Theres the one where you enter your details online and they say immediately

    ‘we’d be willing to lend you €x’ which is worthless other than to provide estate agents for viewings.

    You can progress further than that to have a more ‘real’ approval which will require submitting detailed financial information. You can do this part without having a specific property lined up. This is the bit I suggest you start working through as it can be time consuming for them to carry out their checks/ask questions etc.

    Once you get a payrise you’ll just supplement everything they’ve reviewed with a letter from employer with pay rise.

    But yes, they won’t issue the formal ‘letter of offer’ and loan pack until you’re sale agreed as far as I’m aware.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,675 ✭✭✭CorkRed93




     85 per cent of the homes in a Dublin housing estate, which were advertised on the open market for individual buyers, have been acquired by a London-based investment fund, the Business Post has learnt.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,128 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,600 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Looks like more than an average salary 3175 per month to rent. No wonder they can't fill teacher vacancies. You'd be heading to the airport as quickly as possible with your qualifications

    Progress



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,675 ✭✭✭CorkRed93


    its fine im told. young people always leave and come back



  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭fartooreasonable


    Can't wait to hear how I'm actually the problem and everything is ok.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,202 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Starting salary for a nurse in Dublin in 2024 is 33k a year, or about 2300e a month net. For a job that requires years of education, and very difficult (and for the functioning of the Irish state/its people essential) work. And obviously isn't WFH suitable. Similar story for teachers and gardai. Can anyone here imagine trying to rent in Dublin on that wage these days?

    The nurses union has been screaming out the housing is the #1 issue for its members in Dublin for ages now, but our government has been ignoring them. Principals in schools in Dublin are all saying the same thing about trying to find young staff, they can't recruit anyone who'd need to move to Dublin because the starting salary just won't cover rent.

    You'd think a very obvious first step of say increasing starting salary by 5k across the board (which wouldn't impact higher earning/more senior staff, just the junior ones starting off - so would cost the state very little comparatively) would/should be done instantly. But no sign of that yet for some reason...



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,594 ✭✭✭newmember2




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,675 ✭✭✭CorkRed93




  • Registered Users Posts: 615 ✭✭✭J_1980


    These houses were for sale to individual buyers and couldn’t sell them. Then sold at a discount. At 550k these are basically construction costs + vat + tiny bit land value and no more than 50k profit.

    for most double income earners they were fairly affordable (mean salary *2). What are irish house buyers actually waiting for? Getting a blackrock semiD for 350k????? How can anyone be sich a deluded rentpig and not buy at these prices.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,033 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    These houses were for sale to individual buyers and couldn’t sell them

    Where is your proof of this?

    That the fund got a discount was likely due to them bulk buying than in response to demand.

    As for the strawman about people waiting to buy 350k house in BlackRock (said noone, ever) - complete BS.

    And a 550k home is not affordable for a couple on mean Irish salary (mean is around 47k). To afford a 550k house requires 55k deposit and a combined salary over 110k, probably more to pass the stress tests.



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