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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #782
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The GEM mean is very very good

    gens-21-1-216.png
    gens-21-0-216.png

    And 7 days from now

    gens-21-1-174.png

    Meanwhile,....

    6CBA1BBB-E60A-40FA-B4E0-0F99EE8DAACC.png.43cccaf2c57bf41f59ec495cc787be19.png
    FA1938E6-F6CE-4768-B95A-15FF65155620.png.6edfe4ae9d81372971c9314c5a535d91.png
    c42262c0fd871649ee4fa4a58384f52a.jpg


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #783
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The 12z ensembles from both the GFS and GEM are starting to look more clear and the GFS is overall trending milder than this mornings output with less snow potential and a pullback on the colder runs and getting closer to the ECM ensembles in that regard. GFS still going for a cold spell but a rather short lived and messy affair.

    The GFS 12z upgrades a brief spell of Irish Sea streamer potential for this Tuesday. Something we may have to keep an eye on tomorrow.

    The GEM has overall trended colder yet again and is definitely going all in for a proper cold spell. Majority of GEM members between -7 and -11C for a few days. Come on GEM please be right.



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    #784
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM about half way through it's run and it looks like it may be trending towards the GEM! fingers crossed!

    Untitled Image




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    #785
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    ECM is looking very good. Get back on board Gonzo!

    ECM superb up to 144 and then the high tracks a little further east. A.slight correction on this and it aligns much closer to the UKMO and GEM. Perhaps a Monday 00z correction will see to that. Much better run so far than the 00z.

    ECM0-168.gif
    ECM0-192.gif
    ECM1-216 (1).gif


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #786
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121583936#Comment_121583936

    Yes a huge improvement on the morning run, as you say let's just hope it's delaying the real cold air arriving. GEM still the pick of the bunch. Gonzo might be back on board if the GFS tonight sides with the GEM.



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    #787
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭pureza


    It's not a big improvement if next week one is still looking at day 9 which I suspect we will be



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    #788
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Wedgy/slidey time by the end of the ECM. All in all, an intriguing shift from the morning run but that is two upgrades in a row from the ECM and no sign of a raging Atlantic. Up to day 7 it is closely aligned with the GEM and UKMO. It's very positive from a cold outlook perspective as we have entered that more reliable 7 day timeline.

    ECH1-240.gif
    ECH0-240.gif
    ECM1-240.gif


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #789
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121583981#Comment_121583981

    Well it’s day 7/8 on the latest ECM so… hopefully models converge on this proper cold solution now as we get closer. We are not looking at just day 10 fantasy anymore, and the differences between the models are appearing at just day 4-6. Still FI - but gaining momentum.



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    #790
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The Korean (KMA) not interested in a resurgent Atlantic. It has cold arriving from Sunday

    kma-1-174.png
    kma-1-192.png

    P

    kma-1-234.png
    kma-1-264.png
    kma-1-288.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #791
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584020#Comment_121584020

    How accurate is this model compared to the big three?



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    #792
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584022#Comment_121584022

    I don't know Nacho. However, it has been gung ho (is that Korean or Chinese?) on a cold spell from the 14th/15th since it came into range.


    For what it's worth, I have always liked the JMA at this range for cold. Just waiting on its output now. It was spot on for the beast and 2010 spells

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #793
    snowfan50
    Registered Users Posts: 14 ✭snowfan50


    Is it not true that the GEM always has a bias towards colder weather so you can only take its predictions with a pinch of salt.



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    #794
    snowfan50
    Registered Users Posts: 14 ✭snowfan50


    Also in 2018 I think the Icon performed the best when we got that last big cold spell.



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    #795
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584112#Comment_121584112

    I know its MTCs favoured model. Gem was not interested in next weekends potential cold until yesterday's 0z. It was showing much milder solutions when other models were going for cold. Either way, I just don't know which model is best for what anymore which is why I look at them all and try and form some kind of a consensus. I have seen those model performance charts that evaluate the main models at short, medium and long range and there is no decipherable pattern to them. If forecasting was a perfect science or if there was a perfect model, we would all be on the hunt for a different hobby.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #796
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584033#Comment_121584033

    JMA presents a 4 day battle between an Atlantic low and colder air sinking south. The former eventually sinks south. A 3-4 day mess for some, a complete snowfest for others

    J168-7.gif
    J204-7.gif
    J240-7.gif
    J264-7.gif


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #797
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584150#Comment_121584150

    Holy moly. A 4 day blizzard for some. I know that's not what you are saying, but one can dream. I would love to experience a red warning for snow. I know there was one back in 2018 but I was out of the country then. What I wouldn't give to experience a 2 - 3 day blizzard.



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    #798
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    I fear in that scenario I'd get 4 days of sleet and an hour of snow as the front retreats south while lads up the country are getting buried (thanks to Cork and Kerry cooling down the front sufficiently for ye). Bastards...



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    #799
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584042#Comment_121584042

    Aye but the location of Ireland, always a bridesmaid never a bride has the form horse for the usefull cold to continue heading into Europe and onto either Athens again or I suspect this time not much further west than Paris or Cardiff

    We'll see by this time next week of course where or how far out the cold is modeled



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    #800
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584169#Comment_121584169

    Best snow event of my lifetime. I have the most amazing video of the snow approaching from a nearby mountain. It was a wall of snow sweeping toward my house. The kids and I stood outside and waited for it to hit. We had drifting snowing within two hours. It's for moments like that I look forward to observing winter weather prospects, moreso than summer. What's rare is wonderful. That's why I am very keen on next Sunday and Monday. It is very rare that we see these charts for the middle of January.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #801
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584214#Comment_121584214

    2018 was mad altogether will never see it again. The low just stalled off the east coast and dumped snow for a good 36 hours non stop. Was class. I remember MTC the day before saying it would be like 1947 with internet. Maybe not quite at that depth of cold but amazing none the less.



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    #802
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584214#Comment_121584214

    That's an awesome memory to have for you all. Fair play. As you say if we were guaranteed such weather every year it probably wouldn't mean as much.



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    #803
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,980 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Storm Emma snowfall was truly epic here in the East. We had great snow here in Dublin but I remember the photos and videos from Kildare in particular were absolutely sensational. It looked like an alpine ski resort. Those types of weather events and November / December 2010 are just so memorable to experience. Just walking out and about in that type of snowfall is just magic



This discussion has been closed.
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