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Global warming

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Please explain what that cycle actually is. Nothing happens without a driver so what drives the natural heating and cooling you suggest accounts for the current warming trend. Be specific - what is the actual mechanism.

    Climate scientists actually have a mechanism to explain current warming - whats yours and where is your evidence. Please share your knowledge with us poor fools.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    are you for real?

    It’s exactly what their promoting. You havent a clue lad.

    No doubt your a just stop oil type



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Hamsterchops


    Not sure I want to engage after the sentence "Please share your knowledge with us poor fools". . . .

    Always listened to what the late great and much loved David Bellamy had to say on the subject, acknowledging (that there is a man-made component to global warming) but that the % is unknown and unquantifiable, due to all the moving parts in our ecosystem, from sun spots to El Niño to volcanic activity, to deforestation to changes in ocean currents, the jet stream, not forgetting carbon dioxide emissions (created by us).

    Bellamy would never capitulate to the BBC narrative that we alone were responsible for climate change ... so they let him go, & he was effectively CANCELLED.


    BELLAMY QUOTE

    .... I am a scientist and I have to ­follow the directions of science but when I see that the truth is being covered up I have to voice my ­opinions.

    According to official data, in every year since 1998 world temperatures have been getting colder, and in 2002 Arctic ice actually increased. Why, then, do we not hear about that?

    The sad fact is that since I said I didn’t believe human beings caused global warming I’ve not been allowed to make a TV programme.

    My absence has been noticed, because wherever I go I meet people who say: “I grew up with you on the television, where are you now?”

    It was in 1996 that I criticised wind farms while appearing on Blue Peter and I also had an article published in which I described global warming as poppycock.

    The truth is, I didn’t think wind farms were an effective means of alternative energy so I said so. Back then, at the BBC you had to toe the line and I wasn’t doing that.

    At that point I was still making loads of television programmes and I was enjoying it greatly. Then I suddenly found I was sending in ideas for TV shows and they weren’t getting taken up. I’ve asked around about why I’ve been ignored but I found that people didn’t get back to me.

    At the beginning of this year there was a BBC show with four experts saying: “This is going to be the end of all the ice in the Arctic,” and hypothesising that it was going to be the hottest summer ever. Was it hell! It was very cold and very wet and now we’ve seen evidence that the glaciers in Alaska have started growing rapidly – and they’ve not grown for a long time.

    I’ve seen evidence, which I believe, that says there has not been a rise in global temperature since 1998, despite the increase in carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere. This makes me think the global warmers are telling lies – carbon dioxide is not the driver.

    The idiot fringe have accused me of being like a Holocaust denier, which is ludicrous. Climate change is all about cycles, it’s a natural thing and has always happened. When the Romans lived in Britain they were growing very good red grapes and making wine on the borders of Scotland. It was evidently a lot warmer.

    If you were sitting next to me 10,000 years ago we’d be under ice. So thank God for global warming for ending that ice age; we wouldn’t be here otherwise".


    Article in Full

    https://www.express.co.uk/expressyourself/69623/BBC-shunned-me-for-denying-climate-change



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    So you don't have an account for why global mean temperatures have been rising for over a century. Its simple really - you just have to show that there has been a secular trend upwards in one of your proposed drivers over that period and demonstrate a causal relationships with that trend and you have made your case. Every one of the mechanisms you list has been studied to death by climate scientists looking for such a trend and they have never found one. Knock yourself out and show us where they failed.

    Bellamy used one bit of short term data to convince you it is all a grand conspiracy against you. Bellamy hadn't been in the media for at least decade before he went full crank and developed a persecution complex.

    So I ask again - what specific natural cycles has caused recent global warming. I repeat since you seem to have missed it first time - be specific and stop the hand waving.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    It is not what Savorys is promoting, which is an intensive system of land management with specific proposed outcomes.

    What the paper is discussing is a situation where an evolved ecosystem has one of its key components removed and so it shows a market decline from its peak biodiversity. Ecologists have know for at least a century that regular small scale ecological disruption (grazing in this case) promotes increased biodiversity. Climax ecosystems without regular disruption are less diverse than systems which experience disruptions. This is why in Africa elephants are critical components of savanna because they knock down trees and stop the savanna evolving towards a less diverse climax forest.

    None of this is proof of Savorys claimed benefits - benefits which real ecologists have looked for in his system and failed to find. Lets be clear here - the claim we are interested in here is that the Savory system can offset human climate change emissions and reverse anthropogenic climate change. So no one here is arguing against maintaining bio-diverse extensive grazing systems (the opposite of global ranching and feed lot agriculture). What people are disputing is the range of miraculous benefits claimed for by a particular extreme form of cattle ranching.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,536 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    you're quoting david bellamy? ah here.

    for a start, his background is botany. would be like asking your dishwasher repair engineer 'here, can you fix my car while you're here?'



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    So we agree then that livestock Managed properly are absolutely key in solving Global warming & biodiversity loss.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    No we are not in agreement at all. Livestock management has only secondary potential in addressing climate change, and that mainly involves reducing stocking rates and changing to extensive farming.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    No I am following the science unlike yourself.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    Id suggest you get a second opinion on that science. Because I’m following common sense.

    You just said you no that grazing animals are good for biodiversity, then you say we need to reduce them.

    I think you are a bit confused.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    You are trying to create a straw man argument here, I have never claimed that removal of grazers is the best thing for maximizing biodiversity so to say that what I propose is anti-biodiversity is simply misrepresentation of what I have said. I think your confusion proceeds from the fact that you have no scientific training or broad understanding of ecological principles. You have bought into the Savory messiah complex and thats the only round peg you have for every hole.

    The maximum biodiversity is achieved where stocking rates are at a low level but consistent level. Intensive stocking produces reduced biodiversity because their is no chance for species progression before each disturbance event (grazing).

    In the case of what Savory is trying to emulate he proposes repeated intensive grazing events. How this differs from a natural grassland system is that the grazing regime he is trying to emulate is migratory - which means the disturbance event he is attempting to copy are once a year. If he truly wants to copy this - then stocking rates would have to reduce because the rotation would have to cover 52 weeks of the year. That is not what he is proposing though is it - what he is proposing is return grazing every few months - which is nothing like the natural system. Savory's system has to much disturbance which means it will tend to reduce system biodiversity not increase it.

    What a few studies have shown is that the Savory system can help soil microbial biodiversity - a small element of overall biodiversity - but those same studies show that Restorative Grazing can also reduce plant and animal biodiversity.

    These are basic ecological principles.

    Extensive farming has been shown, in an Irish context, to preserve biodiversity at it maximum level - and that involves light grazing and outwintering - the complete opposite of the Savory system. Take a look at the Burren LIFE project to see how biodiversity maximization is really achieved in an Irish context.

    As for any claims that Savorys system sequesters more carbon and so addresses climate change - show me the scientific evidence to support his wild claim. You wont, just as you didn't when you made this wild claim before - why ? because it has not been proven in any scientifically verifiable fashion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    well that’s a low blow, and having a scientific background in ecology isn’t the be all & end all. This isn’t a knowledge problem.

    Because in the past 100 years education, science & technology has increased exponentially yet biodiversity has plummeted.

    It’s a management & decision making problem. That’s what the Savorys system is all about. A Decision making framework.


    can i ask ya this, What does more damage

    100 cows on an acre for 1 day & the land gets rested for 100 days

    or

    1 cow on 100 acres for 100 days no rest.

    And as for the Irish context, we get year round humidity. The concept of rest (conservation ) will work really well in Ireland for biodiversity.

    When your trying to fix desertification in Arizona or Texas or Mexico etc, You have to have intense grazing To break the hard capped ground, flatten the grass to cover the soil (mulch) and high levels of dung, urine which contain the bacteria that kick start the processes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    100 cows on one acres for one day will undoubtedly do more long term damage. However here's the kicker, in order to reduce the emissions of cattle razing in Ireland under the Savory system - stocking rates would need to reduce by 2 1/2 times. That is not even straying into the territory of actually removing atmospheric CO2 - thats just reducing emissions.

    The reason why biodiversity has declined whilst knowledge has increased is because that knowledge has been ignored in the face of a drive to intensify production. Ireland has seen a massive biodiversity decline in lock step with its agricultural intensification since the 1970's. Reduce stocking rates and return methods to those of the 1970's and we would see a significant improvement in biodiversity. Thats not going to happen - but adopting regenerative grazing would not produce the results that a return to traditional Irish agricultural practices would.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    And about the soil carbon sequestration argument. Do you really need me to show proof to you that soil stores carbon? Everybody knows it.

    And it’s bullshit anyway because you’ll get different results from different farms all over the world.

    And land managed properly, it certainly stores more carbon than deserts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    The Topic is Global Warming.

    Deserts are global, deserts are extremely hot for the most part. And 60% + of the worlds land is desert or rapidly turning to desert.

    The only hope of restoring these land’s to help store carbon, water & habitat etc is properly managed Livestock



  • Registered Users Posts: 558 ✭✭✭Gussoe


    FAKE NEWS.

    60+% of the land surface is not desert.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    I need you to show me that the claims that Savory made for his system are true regarding carbon sequestation. Lets remind everyone here - he claimed that his methods could reverse climate change by massively increasing soil carbon sequestation. Thats what I want you to demonstrate.


    ... and again you show a very poor understanding of the science - soils only sequester carbon until they become saturated, typically after 30-50years, and then they become carbon neutral. Once carbon neutral they can both absorb and emit carbon on a year by year basis depending on management and climate. Intensive agriculture has turned almost all agricultural land into net emitters of carbon. Any system of management capable of reversing this trend if it is less intensive. This is why it is necessary for the Savory system to reduce stocking rates before it starts to reduce its agricultural emission - and then only until it reaches its new equilibrium state. It cannot solve climate change.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    If 60% of the planets deserts was managed Holistically under the Savory Institute, thats billions of acres of land that is now storing carbon. Even if it only stored a little bit. It’s still a lot.

    By your measurements say soil stores 50 year’s carbon. That’s 50 years of billions of acres around the world storing carbon & we wouldnt be releasing it either, through tillage, fire, over rest etc

    However much or whatever number you’re looking for i can’t give it to you, it will be different everywhere for everyone.

    And if soils stopped storing carbon after 50 years we wouldn’t be great today, absolutely nonsense.

    Yes intensive Agriculture has caused alot of problem’s, but this isn’t intense.

    The Africa centre for holistic management is running somewhere between 500 - 1000 head of livestock on an area of about 10 thousand hectare’s.

    That’s About 1 animal per 10 - 20 hectares. That’s not very intensive.

    There’s farmer’s in Ireland stocked at 3 animals per acre.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    Even if it’s only 40% it’s a huge huge problem.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Climate change is the primary driver of desertification - you cannot reverse this with grazing. Soil degradation through agriculture is only a secondary cause of desertification, agricultural productivity declines from stable rates as water starved land becomes less productive.

    Savorys system applied to a savanna in drought will destroy that savanna -even if it doesn't in a normal year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭Carlito Brigantes Tale


    Lovely fire roaring at the moment on this horrible cold damp day. Greens won't be taking that from me




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    I am actually in favour of restorative agriculture - its bound to be a massive improvement on the intensive rangelots it replaces.

    What I am totally against is people making wild and unsupported claims about its potential to restore biodiversity, reverse deserification and halt climate change.


    Such people discredit restorative agriculture.

    The primary benefit of restorative agriculture appropriately applied is in its less intensive nature - ie fewer grazers not more.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    Your wrong, because 1 cow will over graze the entire place.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    desertification is caused by over resting land in seasonal rainfall environment’s.

    the Savory institute is famous for turning deserts or land desertifying into grasslands.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog


    My house had the oil on for an hour this morning and is still lovely and toasty - thats what comes of applying Green principles to insulating a house.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,119 ✭✭✭Shoog




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit




  • Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭Carlito Brigantes Tale


    House is well insulated just love a proper fire.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,676 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    Can you prove that? Can you provide proof that it doesn’t support enough biodiversity, reverse desertification & help with global warming in seasonal rainfall environment’s.



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