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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #842
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584952#Comment_121584952

    Ah yeah. Like you say It can only downgrade, but christ almighty I wish it wouldn't. That runs reminds me of 2010.



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    #843
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121584960#Comment_121584960

    You can be almost guaranteed that the op is one of the coldest members but I would hope to see less milder members in the ensembles. The most notable aspect of this run is the fact that blocking is reinforced so the model most be picking up signals from somewhere. We are usually at the point of downgrades 7 days out so you would hope the 18z and subsequent 0z ensembles continue a trend.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #844
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    *botched gif*



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    #845
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The 18z pub run is not a cold outlier. It's towards the colder end of the range but several other members that do go colder compared to the operational so there is more scope for both upgrades and downgrades.



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    #846
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585108#Comment_121585108

    Pleasantly surprised to see that. More notably, there are some sub -10 850s cropping up which is always my barometer for cold spell likelihood. A colder ensembles overall.

    Screenshot_2024-01-07-23-38-51-380-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #847
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Beginning to feed into met.ie...

    Screenshot_20240108_000419_Samsung Internet.jpg




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    #848
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 24,037 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I must get out warmer socks for when it drops from 0C to -0C.



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    #849
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585174#Comment_121585174

    Reminiscent of when they told us any snow would fall in the Irish sea mountains.



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    #850
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Not much has changed overnight in terms of cold prospects other than the manner in which it happens. Safe to say all models favour a colder blast of weather from Sunday or Monday and it's now more likely than not as we enter a more reliable timeframe. Some of the solutions for how we get there are a bit mad though.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #851
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Been travelling the last 24 hours back from summertime South Africa, was cut off from the internet (probably for my own good 😂) so I couldn’t look at weather charts during that time.

    well worth the wait though! Thank you Wolfie for all the chart updates and photos 🫡.

    Seasonal 3C today & the pilot said “3C max today at Dublin airport with a light easterly breeze” … don’t think I’ve heard a forecast like that in January for quite some time ☺️



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    #852
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Taking the good with the bad. Here is the bad. The JMA, which I like personally, is Atlantic zonal hell.

    animvym4.gif

    JMA......

    DagK3qEW4AAZhBR.jpg


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #853
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    image.png

    Better looking ECMWF ensembles this morning but still plenty of bland options there. Interesting week ahead and great to see mainly dry outlook either way



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    #854
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121585705#Comment_121585705

    06Z GFS is very good.Keeps the cold going through next week. A very unstable airflow by midweek so more wintry looking. Atlantic influence kept much further south and west

    gfs-0-222.png

    Still going for the following Saturday

    gfsnh-1-288.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #855
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    GEFS mean is excellent. I am counting at least 7 members going colder than the op run from Sunday. Ens will be colder than 00z

    Just 6 days out now.

    mean.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #856
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    There's some beauts within the ensembles

    this would not be too shabby for this day next week. Some lucky kids might miss a week of school if something like this came to pass

    image.png




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    #857
    waterwelly
    Registered Users Posts: 2,232 ✭✭✭waterwelly


    It's slowly creeping into the reliable timeframe.



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    #858
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    For me, the evening runs on Wednesday represent the moment we can afford to have some form of certainty about any upcoming cold spell. Between now and then, you would be looking for the various model output to align to cold. The window for wobbles is closing. You also would need to start seeing some minus 10 850s start to appear in the ensembles for it to be a noteworthy cold spell. Regarding specifics re: sleet/snow etc, it is a fools errand to be looking at any guidance around that right now, particularly snow charts.

    There is still support for our weather to turn milder and more unsettled so let's see how things pan out.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #859
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://giphy.com/gifs/hold-holding-the-line-qjSxTWJxqH4YDuIrOs
    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586195#Comment_121586195


    It will be interesting to see if we get a Scandi high later on towards the back end of the month. I am hoping for a battleground situation when the Altantic inevitably tries to break through. A stalling front that dumps snow for 24 hours would be nice. But before all that let's hope we do get a potent Arctic outbreak not the diluted crap we have been accustomed to.



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    #860
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    My main worry about the upcoming spell is the fact that it looks primarily a northerly so that could mean many of us won't see a single flake unless we get a properly unstable northerly somehow with polar lows tracking north to south intact across the country. Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and coastal eastern England are likely to do really well out of this cold spell as they have lots of north facing coasts. Fingers crossed if it's a northerly that it's an unstable one and not another dry one, otherwise this could be mainly a UK event in terms of snow.

    I would be far more excited about the upcoming cold spell if it had an easterly component to it which we really need for snow but sadly it doesn't like it's going to have an easterly or north-easterly.



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    #861
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586481#Comment_121586481

    Yes, that's my fear too.

    The Met Eireann update isn't all that inspiring- some showers coming down from the north next weekend with temperatures of 4- 7 c. Granted it's nearly a week away and the landing date for something more noteworthy was always around the 15th. Let's see what happens.



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    #862
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586521#Comment_121586521

    That’s just Met Éireann being (rightly) conservative and careful at this point. If charts are showing similar by Wednesday evening/thurs morning, expect a notably different tone.

    Im not worried about this being dry for the east coast anyway as currently showing on the models, there is a North Easterly tilt at times on most runs I have seen. Similarly NW coasts would likely see something too at different times.


    Also - several runs have shown an awful lot of low pressure at times, and with the PV lobe sinking into Scandi there is a very decent risk of local features popping up at short range.



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    #863
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586521#Comment_121586521

    That was always my thoughts, it may still swing NE. Still early days.



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    #864
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586560#Comment_121586560

    Let's hope the whole lot comes down on top of us ala 2010:)



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    #865
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Hold your whist lads. Scatter central still from Sunday. Rain from SW is getting jealous of your snow from NE talk.

    Getting there, but not there yet.

    graphe3_10000_86_19___.png

    By the way, don't think Met Eireann are too far wrong for Saturday at least

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #866
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭bazlers


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586623#Comment_121586623

    Sush ive a container of Sleighs to get rid of!



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    #867
    circadian
    Registered Users Posts: 6,950 ✭✭✭circadian


    I'm dying to tell the kids, they've been asking for snow for ages but I can't trust it until we're out of FI.



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    #868
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Oh this could still go horribly wrong, that is the reason it is in the FI thread. We need to get the cold into <120 charts or at least much better agreement on the ensembles. One positive is the outlook for later in month shows potential for another chance of cold.



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    #869
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    That's more like it. A decent northerly incoming with that you'd imagine.

    Let's hope the op run tonight reflects this.



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    #870
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    ECMWF control run for 6z is pretty much as you were for Sunday with incoming cold

    gens-0-0-144.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #871
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,365 ✭✭✭esposito


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121586810#Comment_121586810

    Exactly. Do NOT tell your kids. If the trend is still there 3 days/ 72 hours to go then maybe tell them. With Ireland it’s never straightforward for snow. I’m not telling any family or friends until then and if they ask me before that I’ll say it’s all still very uncertain.



This discussion has been closed.
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