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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #872
    almostthere12
    Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭almostthere12


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587289#Comment_121587289

    ICON 12z is very similar to that:

    image.png




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    #873
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Icon 12z has a better angle on the approach of that colder airmass with minus 8 850s over us by Sunday evening. Could do with high being a tad further west mind you.

    icon-0-156.png
    icon-1-150.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #874
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    That Icon w ould leave us high and dry with a snowfest for usual places in the UK. This event could easily not produce a single flake for us so I wouldn't be talking this cold spell up yet to friends or family. In about 3 days time we should know if we're in for an actual event or just another lame duck like early December.



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    #875
    piplip87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,124 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Cold and dry is plenty for me at this stage would love some sneachta but as long as it's not raining. The ice this morning was something else though.



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    #876
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 24,037 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Indeed. Whatever dries the land out at this stage is the best weather for everyone.



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    #877
    White Clover
    Registered Users Posts: 4,619 ✭✭✭White Clover


    No need for snow, it just disrupts most people’s everyday lives. Cold and dry is all we need.



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    #878
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587593#Comment_121587593

    It's increasingly looking like a North and Northwest event which will make many members here happy

    Sometimes those events can also impact the Midlands and Dublin

    They don't excite me at all as we would be high and dry down here in the Southeast for sure



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    #879
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587711#Comment_121587711

    Or a Northeaster that has a nice long stretch ;)



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    #880
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Untitled Image

    It's looks a bit messy beforehand,could be snow from a frontal attack or just cold rain. Fine Margins.



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    #881
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587711#Comment_121587711

    Just out of curiousity, have you ever had snow from a polar low?



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    #882
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587742#Comment_121587742

    In the good old 1980's yes,once only that I can remember

    But in 99% of cases,hard frosts and clear skies

    Snow showers that come here rarely from the NW last about 5 or 10 mins here in between 4 to 5 hrs of sun

    The only decent snow here has been frontal events and northeasterly's off the Irish sea



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    #883
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    This GFS run is knife edge stuff, I don't like it overall because 9 times out of 10 it goes wrong for us. We could end up with the cold feed cut off , turn milder, and be watching on as parts of England are buried in snow



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    #884
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,702 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Everybody remain calm 😆



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    #885
    circadian
    Registered Users Posts: 6,950 ✭✭✭circadian


    Here comes the Kermit hype train!



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    #886
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Not really liking todays modeling at all I have to say. The GFS 12z is a bit unusual and probably an outlier in it's own way. Models clearly struggling with the high pressure on one side and the potential return of the Atlantic on the other side.



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    #887
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    image.png.109d3a0ff555da03d7dee5bea157e11d.png

    That would turn alot of the country white. True Gonzo. But the models keep finding a way to cold and snowy (for some) . Normally they wobble and slowly go back to zonal, this time they keep defaulting cold. It probably shows they just can't fully handle the current setup.



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    #888
    torres9kop
    Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587857#Comment_121587857

    I dont like ur negativity. But I enjoy reading ur posts :)



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    #889
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users Posts: 9,238 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587821#Comment_121587821

    Kermit, Do you believe? 🌨️

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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    #890
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121587998#Comment_121587998

    He is right about the GFS though, it's a high risk - high reward situation. On that run we get the reward but on the next run it could show the low to the south west cutting off the cold air and us going milder. As regards the other models, a northerly isn't great for his location, unless it's very unstable.



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    #891
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588051#Comment_121588051

    A northerly isn't great for most of Ireland unless it is unstable. Donegal and perhaps some north-western coastal areas of Mayo may still ok from a northerly as long as pressure isn't too high or Atlantic mixing is kept at bay.



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    #892
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588061#Comment_121588061

    Well, yes if they are not unstable it won't be of much use to those further south or east, but a half decent one will deliver to much of the north and North west. We used to get those a lot when I was growing up, but as we know well they are rare now.



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    #893
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Very poor runs this afternoon. GEM operational has wobbled with too much Atlantic mixing and so has the JMA and to some extent the KMA. What we are looking at on most of the models is a brief battleground scenario but the mild overall is coming in quicker and Atlantic mixing involved which is never a good thing for us as we are usually on the wrong side of marginal.

    Having said that I haven't seen any of the ensembles yet so there is a chance that the overall ensembles are better.



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    #894
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The GFS control is a massive outlier. I think things are trending the way the UKMO text forecast said they would: cold with some snow showers around at first , but then systems approaching from the south west. I am not confident we won't end up going mild in such a scenario. I hope I am wrong, but I fear it being wet rather white here if this is the direction of travel.



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    #895
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    As for the GFS operational Atlantic comes back big time with long fetch mild southwesterlies and loads of low pressure back up over Canada which will fire up the Atlantic for us once again. Prior to this the cold spell doesn't come to much with heights over Southern Europe just refusing to go away and we don't tap into proper cold for any decent length of time because the heights over southern Europe are preventing it.

    Untitled Image


    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image

    Tomorrow will probably be the day we know were we are going and if there is going to be a cold spell at all. The ECM is about to roll out let's see what that says but my interest in this spell is starting to wane quickly now we need serious upgrades tomorrow.



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    #896
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,047 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    I see the doom merchants are out in force tonight.


    minus 5 tonight, really looking foward to this settled cold/dry spell,

    snow showers would be an added bonus.



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    #897
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,626 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588307#Comment_121588307

    This really is a roller-coaster for you Gonzo. You have threatened to get off a few times now,but a bit later are sucked back in again🤣



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    #898
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    And the man who looks at tonight's ECM is very, very content indeed! It's showtime....



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    #899
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Awesome charts this evening.

    Look at this cold from Ecm, 216hrs. Very unstable air, Widespread snow

    image.png




This discussion has been closed.
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