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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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    #902
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588508#Comment_121588508

    Back to day 9 again..



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    #903
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM definitely the best run for today.

    Untitled Image




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    #904
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588518#Comment_121588518

    Yeah.. a pain.. but I don't ever remember a good cold spell arriving on time



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    #905
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588539#Comment_121588539

    The cold is incredible really! Can we count it down now. At least its day 9 now not day 10



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    #906
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    ECM delays and then delivers big time! This a great rollercoaster and isn’t it great to have some charts to follow with a chase?

    booms and people writing it off, all part of the chase :D



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    #907
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588548#Comment_121588548

    Yeah it's a bit annoying. Milder weather is rarely pushed back. Let's just hope we reel that fantastic ECM run in now without any more wobbles.



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    #908
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's been crazy model watching recently and chaotic as the models are clearly struggling. Every day we have one model which says no and it's a different model most days. ECM backed out of the cold spell for a few days while the GFS and GEM were really going for it and now we have the ECM back but the GFS and GEM not looking great, I wonder what will tomorrow bring?

    The main problem I'm seeing right now is those heights over southern Europe refusing to get lost and too much energy starting to develop over the Canadian side so heights getting to Greenland and staying there is going to be under pressure and the cold coming down from the north will also be under pressure by the heights from the south.



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    #909
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588548#Comment_121588548

    Did Nov 2009 not arrive a day or 2 sooner than originally flagged by the models?



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    #910
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 24,037 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588682#Comment_121588682

    My son, unless you see Gerry Murphy being forced to utter the word 'schleet', there is no snow coming.

    Joanna has always been a bit of a snow bunny, but the circumspect approach is the right one.



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    #911
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,175 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588553#Comment_121588553

    You think by now you'd have learned not to rely on day 9 charts! I am as optimistic as anyone but lets wait until it gets within 120 anyway!



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    #912
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    IMG_1597.png

    ECMWF ensembles a big improvement, OP much milder than most in the 15th to 17th window a lot of support for cold there. Getting closer…



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    #913
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    My only concern with the ECM is we seem to be relying on the Arctic High somewhat. They rarely do us any favours. The op going mild briefly is because of that trough or shortwave but it helps to bring in the cold. It looks like Northern England and Scotland get snow from it .

    Post edited by nacho libre on


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    #914
    compsys
    Registered Users Posts: 1,078 ✭✭✭compsys


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588565#Comment_121588565

    Yes and No. The charts are nice to look at but I just feel there will be so much disappointment if nothing materialises.

    Anyway, the relatively dry and sunny weather over the past few days has been nice.

    If the snow doesn't come I hope it'll be cool, dry and sunny at least or else mild. I'm on the coast in Dublin. The worst is when it's 4º or 5º, slightly too mild for snow, but with cloud and rain endlessly coming in from the sea. The pitts.



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    #915
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The overall majority of the ECM members get to the cold quicker than the operational run which gets there almost 2 days later than most.

    Untitled Image

    As for the GFS the very mild run at the end is an outlier.

    Untitled Image

    Another week of mostly dry conditions to come and then becoming more unsettled with wintry potential.

    Untitled Image


    The GEM overall shortens the cold spell with the operational a bit of a mild outlier. Despite some not great charts today the cold spell is still on for now but hopefully we will see a more consistent output from tomorow as the cold spell begins to come into a more reliable time frame.



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    #916
    Robwindstorm
    Registered Users Posts: 322 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121588535#Comment_121588535

    Brilliant, was just thinking of the donkey and the dangling carrot myself as regards Gonzo and the Wolf. Their perseverance on this T120 plus thread is amazing and deserves a blizzard in the end. So let's all follow the yellow brick road.



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    #917
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,284 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589346#Comment_121589346

    Agree! We need a blizzard! It’s been 6 years



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    #918
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Icon 18z goes up to 120 hrs and is in good shape to bring in cold from the north/north northeast. Improved look to heights around Greenland too while the high has backed a little west from us.


    icon-0-123.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #919
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    GFS 18Z

    In she/he comes on Sunday night in Monday morn. The low to our SW a tiny bit flatter and not as far north on this run which should allow for a cleaner push of the colder airmass.

    gfs-0-150.png
    gfs-1-150.png

    We end up in a slack easterly by Monday night which would produce a bit of Irish Sea streamer activity


    gfs-0-180.png
    gfs-1-180.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #920
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I prefer the ECM output but its fraught with risk as I mentioned earlier



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    #921
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Heading to slider low territory by 204hrs. Not keen on the slight solution of heights over Greenland

    gfs-0-204.png

    Less blocking ultimately leads to a gradual breakdown. On to the ensembles

    gfs-0-246.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #922
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    That pub run is very sober tonight with not much more than 24 hours of cold in it before the Atlantic has it's way.



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    #923
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121589720#Comment_121589720

    How that Greenland block is swallowed up in a couple of frames suggests to me that this op run might not be reflective of the mean. We will soon see. Op provides about three days of cold followed by a slow rise in temps

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #924
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It's getting tiring. It's disappointing how quickly the heights drain away. I hope it is as an outlier as that run would be a huge anti climax if it came to fruition. If the ECM tomorrow morning is poor I am packing it in for a while- well at least until the next good run. Haha



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    #925
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    gfsnh-1-300.png

    We truly must have done bad by the weather gods in the past as we are cursed. Cold to the left of us, cold to the right, here we are stuck in the middle with mild.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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    #926
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,047 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    AH THE CLASSIC OLD GREEN FINGER OF SLIME



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    #927
    booferking
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭booferking


    More run needed lol



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    #928
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    The 2nd half of Jan curse. I suppose it has to be broken at some stage. Maybe this yr Maybe not......its that bloody 2nd half of Jan enigma over the last 40 odd yrs that would have me most worried about this potential cold spell.

    I say it every winter. Beware the 2nd half of Jan if you want a proper cold spell during that period.



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    #929
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Hopefully the GFS op run is a huge outlier

    Untitled Image




This discussion has been closed.
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