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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    I think a good portion, maybe 25%, of the part V properties should be used for essential workers who need to live in the area. This would have huge benefits for schools looking to hire new teachers for example, who would struggle to find a place to live in Dublin. It could be time limited (say 5 years), but would give them time living in subsidised accommodation to save up. It would also reduce pressure in PS negotiations since the money would be going precisely where it is needed, rather than say giving teachers who own a property in Terenure a raise just to help younger teachers who have nowhere to live.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    It's always fun when you see people using bold.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,830 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    The clue is in the name.


    I wasn't originally going to point out the irony that you said "I didn't see anyone whinge" and immediately started a standard whinge of having to pay income tax on income within the same sentence.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,830 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    The problem with doing temporary things which help people to "save up"etc. is that it ultimately only subsidizes and inflates prices higher. Similar to how the FTB grant (or whatever the equivalent is called) helps people save up by giving them their tax back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,586 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The councils arent entering into agreements with developers at the planning stage to build social homes.

    They are swooping on private projects when they are at completion stage.

    So homes the wider community believed will come up for rent or sale, never actually make it to market.

    The councils, if not building their own stock, should enter into procurement contracts with private builders at planning stage to build social homes and leave the private market to look after itself.

    That way, EVERYONE has a chance of getting a home, rather than just those on social welfare.

    Its ironic that when a private developer builds a new apartment block or housing estate, they have to allocate 20% for social housing.

    But when the councils scavange a new build development that was intended for the private market, they dont allocate ANY homes back to the private market.

    Where is the councils 20% contribution and commitment to mixed developments? (and its the potential private renters that are paying for the council to steal the homes from under their noses, ironically.)

    How many 20, 30 or 40 somethings are living with parents because they earn too much to qualify for social housing but not enough to rent in the ultra high end developments, which are the only ones that generally make it through to the private market without the councils stealing them for social housing.

    Those folks dont exist on any housing list and are roundly ignored by the govt.

    But exist they do and they are the folks leaving for Australia and Europe, taking their skills & tax commitments to ireland with them.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    It doesn't really matter whether they are entering into agreements at the planning stage or purchasing completed units though. In both cases, people who are against social housing can argue that resources are being diverted away from building housing for sale to, in their view, more worthy individual purchasers of property.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    It may be the case that councils should be building on land they own but it may also be the case that it makes more sense to sell that land to developers and with the money purchase land elsewhere to build on. It would very much depend on how much they can get for the land they own, how much land they can buy with the money and where the social need is for new council housing.

    On the other point, you may not like charitable housing trusts buying up properties but what you are really saying is that you are against social housing since, as I have argued earlier, it is impossible to have new social housing without impacting private buyers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    Both of those reasons, of course, add up to increased costs and delays for the tax payer. Which is why it makes sense for councils to purchase ready built units in most cases rather than employ brick layers, site managers and so on.

    The problem is more one of optics. When people see councils buying up finished or near-finished properties they think "I could have bought that" when in fact it may simply be the most efficient way of providing public housing given that all ways of producing new public housing divert resources away from providing for the private buyer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,830 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Not quite. By entering into agreements up front they should - if competent - be getting a better deal.

    They could potentially fund the development, or even if not, the developer should be able to get a reduced cost of financing because of the guaranteed sale reducing the lenders risk.

    A deal would also remove the market risk at the sale end for the developer. Less justification for compensation needed as a result.

    Certain expenses such as marketing and legal could be saved and most of this saving should accrue to the buyer if they do their deal competently



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    It would have the benefit of encouraging people to move into these essential areas, with shortages, like teachers, guards, nurses etc. We wouldn't have to increase all PS salaries, which would have a much higher cost. It would make it easier to hire people in higher cost areas. It would be people receiving subsidised housing who are arguably most deserving of it (this might be the main sticking point since normally we do inverse incentivisation here). The time limited part is really down to the fact that as salaries grow, they shouldn't expect to maintain subsidised housing. If they manage to save up some money during this time, great. The main cap on property price inflation is the amount people can borrow anyway



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  • Registered Users Posts: 995 ✭✭✭iColdFusion


    It does matter when the local council or AHB guys and gals turn up for the photo op grand opening of the estate to claim they have delivered social housing for Ireland - all they have delivered is one cheque and a bad deal for Irish taxpayers.

    The reality is if the council was involved at the start and building on their own land the units would be a social housing spec - modest and cost effective, when they jump in at the last minute to buy up houses they are buying much more expensive private market spec homes.


    I can back that up with Tuath just after buying up the full first phase of a development in Cork which includes 41 houses - these houses have large separate living rooms and kitchen/diner, master bedrooms have en-suites with walk in wardrobes, the main bathroom has a bath and a separate shower enclosure all in a prime location just outside Douglas - they are as far from just putting a roof over peoples head as you can get!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    I didn't crop anything, I grabbed the first chart on google for the last decade of Irish housing prices.

    "What goes up must come down" hasn't applied to investing in Irish property long term over the last 100 years. Its been a continual long term upward trend, as shown in Geuze's charts. An average price of £6,700 to €370,000 over 50 years.

    This is the closest on a quick Google to give you a comparison with other countries, that also accounts for the post-2008 price dip.

    Which shows even accounting for that 2008 dip if someone had owned the property for a few years beforehand they would still have made a profitable return on their investment. And even more so now after the increases over the last decade.

    And, again, this is only accounting for capital appreciation of the house. It doesn't account for the hundreds of thousands of euro of rental income over decades of ownership of a rental property.

    Anyone who tries to tell you being a landlord isn't profitable is lying. Its incredibly profitable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    But this is just a general complaint about the perceived unfairness of social housing. The same argument could be made if councils directly employed workers to build houses. You would still get resources pulled away from those seeking to purchase their own homes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    However if councils enter into agreements up front with developers there's still the risk of cost overruns etc. which usually gets passed on to the council. We've seen plenty of examples of this. The developer learns how to game the system. It is true that the risk is reduced for the builder but additional risk is then borne by the council.

    But I think the larger point is that resources are still diverted away from developers building for private purchasers and the same people complaining about councils buying direct from builders will complain about councils contracting builders to build social housing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,586 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It does matter, because if the council entered into agreements upfront with developers, the private developments would be safe guarded and the net result would be more homes delivered, for everyone.

    The Councils arent doing their due dilligence up front and entering contracts with developers often enough (there are some LDA schemes where they do this - so its not the case that it never happens)

    If private developers build 10,000 homes and the councils schedule just 1,000 and then rent 2,000 of the 10,000 private developments to hit their targets at the last minute, the net result is 11,000 new homes. 3,000 for social housing.

    If the councils entered into contract to deliver the 3,000 social homes up front, the 10,000 private homes are not diverted to social upon completion.

    Net result is 13,000 new homes instead of 11,000 and 3,000 social homes are still delivered.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    @BlueSkyDreams wrote: "If private developers build 10,000 homes and the councils schedule just 1,000 and then rent 2,000 of the 10,000 private developments to hit their targets at the last minute, the net result is 11,000 new homes. 3,000 for social housing.

    If the councils entered into contract to deliver the 3,000 social homes up front, the 10,000 private homes are not diverted to social upon completion."

    Your arithmetic is wrong I'm afraid. In the second scenario, if the councils contract the builder to build 3,000 social homes, then the builder will build fewer homes for private purchase as some of the builders resources will indeed diverted towards fulfilling the councils contract.

    You can't get around it unfortunately.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,969 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    At the end of the day, you are correct in one way - without increasing capacity to build houses, we are stuck with the current level of housebuilding.

    There are a number of obstacles to that, one is the logjam at Phase 2 training caused by poor management in ETBs, another is development finance by the banks, a further one is the mess of the planning system due to incompetence in the local authorities and ABP, one of the biggest is Dublin City Council and their councillors who object to their own plans and a final one is the proclivity of local representatives, particularly SF and the small left-wing parties to object to every single private development.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    Essentially increasing capacity is all the government need to work on. Identifying bottlenecks and removing them. But I think governments prefer gestures and photo opportunities with Potemkin style developments that benefit small numbers of people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,969 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Many of the bottlenecks are out of their control, and I suspect that some agencies (opposition parties in charge at local government) are actively trying to stop the government's plans from working.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    And then, of course, you have ordinary people (some of whom are on this thread) who simply don't want prices to fall.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    It was galling to hear Leo come out with his guff about the poor people stuck in negative equity if prices fell to 300k.


    That has been the housing market since the 60s when common folk could afford to buy them.


    People who bought in the 70s wished they had waited til 1985.


    People who bought in 2004 breathed a sigh of relief they didn't hold off til 2006.


    There's average earners who bought in 2012 for 90k that have already paid off the mortgage on a home that's now worth 250k.


    And so on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Owning shares is also incredibly profitable, if you sell at the right time. Paper profit is just that until you sell.

    Again the obvious question is, why isn't everyone a landlord if its incredibly profitable? Is there some mysterious barrier to entry, like, I dunno, the fact that there is a tremendous upfront cost?



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Bottlenecks such as Sinn Fein objecting to planning for thousands of homes?

    Maybe we should let SF into gov and then they can object to themselves and the circle will be complete.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    It is in the interest of the government to resolve the housing crisis.

    It is not in the interest of every other party and independent. It is better for them if it continues and gets worse. Their worst nightmare is for the government to be seen to be resolving the housing crisis and reducing the homeless.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    If we end up with a SF government, hopefully the new opposition parties (FF and FG) will realise that the electorate want parties to play politics rather than solve issues. Objecting, blocking and complaining would therefore be what the electorate want, so they should play the same game.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    That is what I expect to happen. Why wouldn't they?

    If FF/FG/Greens get kicked out it will be in their own interest to slow down/block etc every development similar to what Sinn Fein has done. Then they can sit back and complain the government is not fixing the problem.

    It's a vicious circle



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its not just paper profit from the captial appreciation as a landlord, you have a yearly rental income of tens of thousands of euros on top. A far, far higher yearly return on investment than almost any stock pays in dividend. And with no highly taxed deemed disposal afer 8 years to deal with as you have when holding an ETF.

    The very obvious answer to that question is to become a landlord you need substantial available capital to begin with (at the very least a sizeable deposit, and an income high enough that a bank willing to give you a second or third mortgage). Most of the country isn't wealthy enough to become a landlord, its not that they don't want to be.

    Theres a reason huge numbers of financially successful Irish people own multiple properties in this country. Every single person I know, once they've had enough money to have the option, has bought additional properties to rent out. Because its so profitable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    Well it will have been shown as a winning strategy that has been rewarded by the electorate, so why not?

    On the other hand, it's quite possible that the new SF government will get so bogged down with Gaza resolutions that there will be very little time for anything else 😃

    Can someone explain the relevance of the Gaza conflict to Wexford CC? I am at a bit of a loss as to the connection.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,717 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    I think increasing capacity is essential.

    It's shocking they haven't really tried any measures to attract existing workers, or school leavers, or tried to import workers (bit late now).

    I would think that to get to the required level of construction workers in the state in the longer-term we will have to move to the state directly employing such workers.

    The private market just isn't attractive enough for various reasons, not least the memories people have of the last construction crash where loads of construction workers were forced to emigrate.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    You have 10s of thousands in tax, mortgage repayments, upkeep on the property also.



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