Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Options
1…3233353738…64

Comments

  • Options
    #1022
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121593961#Comment_121593961

    Yes, it's why I would expect to see the GFS backtracking, if not it's a huge win for the GFS if it's right. The thing is it wouldn't take much for the ECM or UKMO charts to go pear shaped, but as we have said the UKMO texted forecast has been steadfast about a snowy battleground cold spell happening



  • Options
    #1023
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    This is what happens when people post FI snow charts in the model thread 😭

    Ps thanks for dropping in Jerry. Our regards to everyone in Nenagh.

    Screenshot_2024-01-09-20-33-41-743-edit_com.twitter.android.jpg


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Options
    #1024
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,958 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Interesting charts and similar in ways introducing areas of LP in off the Atlantic up against the colder airmass but the GFS introduces milder systems pushing in over the country ( and wetter ) much sooner than the ECM, the ECM at the end of the run showing an inch perfect system for a white out blizzard like storm.....the beast from the SW ( must come up with a better name ). One run though, could be gone by the morning but meteorologically speaking it would be an incredible weather event to witness , monitor and record if it came off like this notwithstanding the fact it could cause much disruption and discomfort to a lot of people.

    Couldn't tell you if we are going to get snow next week but I think the ECM has been fairly consistent in showing decent potential,GFS flashes of it but gone off the boil somewhat.

    ecmwf_z500_mslp_eu_fh168-240.gif


    ecmwf_T850_eu_fh168-240.gif


    gfs_z500_mslp_eu_fh168-240.gif


    gfs_T850_eu_fh168-240.gif




  • Options
    #1025
    BullBauld
    Registered Users Posts: 814 ✭✭✭BullBauld


    Carlow Weather just now says the snowy end to ECM was an outlier and unlikely....what to believe.



  • Options
    #1026
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    ECMWF ensembles. Op run colder than the mean from Wednesday through Friday. The mean itself is fairly steady at minus 5 850s. Long way to go yet.

    graphe0_00_87_18___.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1027
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594057#Comment_121594057

    Was basing that correctly off the ensembles precipitation output which did not strongly back significant precipitation.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Options
    #1028
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,753 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594057#Comment_121594057

    I think the control has it further south, which is the more likely outcome. Put it this way I doubt the lads and lassies in Met Eireann are putting much stock in that run. These systems usually end up further south in the end . So Villian is probably right



  • Options
    #1029
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594039#Comment_121594039

    I'm famous.



  • Options
    #1030
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594010#Comment_121594010

    A couple of miles further north and that could be us down here too! Any battleground scenario will be particularly "all duck or no dinner" for us near the south coast. We may see wet snow while there are drifts further north or a system could just stall over us. Have seen both happen. I think 10 January 2010 was one such (happy) example...



  • Options
    #1031
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,341 ✭✭✭pureza


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121593877#Comment_121593877

    Prior to this period we've been entering, as discussed in the ukmo deep dive,El Nino has been causing the jet stream to track more south that usual and that in mind its very believable with these new developing synoptics that most if not all of Ireland will remain on the cold side of any incoming Atlantic low's as they cross the southern half of the country at worst (most North) and slide into GB,by then on day 4 of a freezing or near freezing surface easterly/Northeasterly flow,that's what I'm expecting to happen and if I'm right,we could all be in for something very epic in the heart of winter,exciting?



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1032
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121593965#Comment_121593965

    Yes that would be perfect. Personally for example I'd rather even just 2 inches of snow hanging around for a week or so rather then 6 inches that is washed away after a day or two.



  • Options
    #1033
    SpitfireIV
    Registered Users Posts: 4,504 ✭✭✭SpitfireIV


    Screenshot_20240109-211428-557.png

    About as far as the Met office went this evening....'Next week'.



  • Options
    #1034
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    A few questions as to whether next week is shaping up like Emma. The answer is no, Emma was preceded by Easterly winds with uppers down to minus 15 for about 4 days. Severe cold was well established and then of course coastal streamers dumped several cms across the South before Emma even arrived. We may never see an event like Emma again.

    Next week however does also contain some deep cold but it's coming from the North and at present its not getting time to settle in more so for the South



  • Options
    #1035
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,047 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594226#Comment_121594226

    THE BBC DONT USE THE UK MET OFFICE MODEL ANYMORE.

    The use some other low resoulution trash.



  • Options
    #1036
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,595 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594226#Comment_121594226

    The BBC don't use Met Office data.

    All that graphic is the raw output from the ECM 0z this morning.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • Options
    #1037
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,175 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594170#Comment_121594170

    Very rarely these Atlantic lows ever work out for Cork county anyway. Honestly have no clue what will happen next week apart from it being cold. Precipitation at that range anyway is just fantasy.



  • Options
    #1038
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Remember the big snow of 1982, all came about from similar battleground scenario. High risk Greatest reward.


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/the-big-snow-of-1982-when-ireland-came-to-a-standstill-1.3406256


    https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=8&month=1&year=1982&hour=0&type=era&map=0&type=era&region=&mode=0
    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image




  • Options
    #1039
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Tonights ECM was wonderful and if it verified it would be red level snow alert time, however there is probably a less than 1% chance of it verifying like that in the perfect position. Let's say that chart was due to happen 48 hours from now and not a week away there would still be a high chance that small shifts in placements north or south would have a huge difference. Shift the cold/warm barrier north by 70 miles or so and many of us would be into cold rain territory rather than snow. Shift it north by 100 to 150 miles and most if not all of Ireland would be rain. Shift the system south by 100 miles and probably only the south would get snow from it. Shift it further south again and Ireland would remain high and dry with a snowfest still possible over many southern, central and south-eastern parts of England and we would be looking on in serious envy. Shift it further south and we have a channel low with mostly France getting a pasting.

    The only thing I am 100% certain is that tonights ECM will be used extensively over the coming few days to drive home the idea that we are in for a world ending snow bomb by the rag media with words twisted that Met Eireann and the UK Met Office have forecast this exact set up to happen.



  • Options
    #1040
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,047 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594458#Comment_121594458

    the only thing im certain about is shift the time on 50 years and will all be dead.



  • Options
    #1041
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,183 ✭✭✭pad199207


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594501#Comment_121594501

    Post of the day 🙄



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #1042
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,877 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    One thing I have noticed about all the ensembles this evening from all the models is that the trend is to extend the cold spell. Up to yesterday it looked like it would be coming to an end around January 20th, this evening most of the models are now keeping it colder than average until January 23th. We are potentially looking at a week long cold spell of various intensities depending on which model or run you look at.

    ECM has a bit more scatter compared to the 6z but overall most members have us stuck between -6 and -9C for about 4 days and after that temperatures gradually recovering very slowly.

    GFS has us mostly between -3 and -9 over the course of a whole week, so much scatter.

    GEM mostly between -6 and -10C until January 20th followed by a rise in temperatures after that.



  • Options
    #1043
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Pub run definitely keeping up to soberness, not buying into it at all. While there is a general sense of encouragement from ECM, UKMO, etc. The GFS will need to be closely watched. Let’s hope it does not become a trend.



  • Options
    #1044
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,047 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594543#Comment_121594543
    Untitled Image

    18Z TOP COMPARED TO 12Z BOTTOM

    The gfs usually does climb downs in subtle stages.


    Untitled Image




  • Options
    #1045
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121594615#Comment_121594615

    A definite improvement. I was emphisizing more on the early stages. Nearly every gfs run over the last 36 hours has had some sort of different evolution. Can’t buy into it at all..



  • Options
    #1046
    WolfeEire
    Registered Users Posts: 920 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    GFS op has edged closer to the UKMO and ECMWF and even introduces its own potential snow event or two.

    The run brings cold in much earlier on Sunday and into Tuesday. While the Greenland high becomes a mess early doors, we have an Atlantic system bringing rain, sleet and snow (almost exclusively snow on higher ground) for the southern half of Ireland by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It retreats southeast on Wednesday before a further plunge of cold from the north. Another slider type event is indicated for the south on Friday morning on this run.

    I am not discounting the GFS portrayal of the Greenland high collapsing as it has some support from some of the lesser known/referred models. Other than that it does seem more a more chaotic and messier affair than that portrayed by the UKMO and ECMWF however. Comparison with ECM below.

    We await the GEFS to see if that provides any clues as to what the model is thinking, unless it fires out more scattered diagrammes like it has been doing.

    ecm.GIF
    gfs.png


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Options
    #1047
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,183 ✭✭✭pad199207


    GFS saving itself tonight. I’ve never known a weather model watching period like it.



  • Options
    #1048
    InAtFullBack
    Registered Users Posts: 562 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    image.png

    Ooh - whats this now?



This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement