FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Looking pretty positive at this stage. Just not in the range to iron our some of the finer details. I think a cold snap is almost nailed - it's the extent and severity we are looking at now.

Would like it to be more than a snap…

‘Spell’ hopefully if those heights maintain over Greenland.

To be honest I feel exactly the same about a north easterly. The thing is though if we do manage to get a decent high into Greenland , winds may swing around to the north-east eventually. Also later in the month there are signs of a scandi high. Given the long range outlook i think you would be very unlucky over the next few weeks not to see some snow.

UK Met not backing away from a continuation of a blocking pattern and cold weather in their 12.30PM long range update, irrespective of what we are seeing in ensembles. They didn't update the paragraph about next week. i presume they feel it's the same outlook as was provided yesterday.

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

Separately, the GEFS finally is showing some 850s at -10c or less in greater numbers which bodes very well for deeper cold next week. I am always suspect of the scale of any impending cold spell that doesn't feature them.

A big uptick in colder members for next week overall with the 06z top and 00z bottom

It will be interesting to see the UKMO update today. I don't think a return to milder weather is certain at this stage. Those ensembles could easily flip to extending the cold, I am not saying they will. In any case even if they are right a return to milder weather is likely to be brief.

The UKMO long range remains bullish about colder weather overall. Of course that could change for the worst, but hopefully not!

S

Certainly all roughly on the same page Wolfe. Would be fantasic if a Scandi High developed there after.

Great informative posts from all. Exciting week of charts.

Has anyone read Tamaras post just on Netweather forum? She seems excited so that says alot : )

Careful you'll be accused of wishing hardship on others with that. This stick is never used against people who wish for heatwaves in the summer though.

The few words I can understand. If she is excited it's telling as she is not a snow lover by any means. I suppose its the overall synoptics that excite her

She certainly knows her stuff and gets it right alot of the time, but as we all know getting it right on the broader scale doesn't mean it always works out as we want at the micro level for us.

She took the words right out of my mouth

I'll be the same if it's an easterly as we down here in the northwest won't get snow so feeling is mutual

It’s kind of ironic because depending on your locality, the charts will twist and turn in your favour and then away from your favour, for example the original northerly would give people in the NW good showers, but I’ll be high and dry here in SCD on the east coast, so I’m banking on a NE/E to deliver snow, yet when I bank on that, your locality will be high and dry, it’s a real head scratcher on who gets something and who doesn’t.

Whats even more interesting about this spell is that it’s genuinely anyone’s game, typically the east coast would be the highest chance but looking at the Synoptics, you and I have a very equal 50/50 chance on seeing snow, and not seeing snow.

too far away at this stage to worry about that though, for all we know PPN could be more intense or weaker than forecasted, or a polar low could develop (lol that’s a lottery winner right there) or some small kink in the isobars to give a disturbance of precipitation

Truly a fascinating time for model watching ❤️

What sort of temperatures are we looking at, -10 on weather stations?

It's the UK met office 5 day forecast I'll be watching with interest as the Time frame shortens. They have been spot on with little details of cloud cover etc with their graphics. Yesterday they had today's little showers of rain in the forecast. Met eireann appear to hold back often now casting these details even when severe weather is imminent. That's my opinion anyway.

Great posting by the way Wolf.

Thanks @Robwindstorm

Icon 12z

In short, it shows very cold conditions from Sunday eve through to the end of the run (180hrs). That warm sector that showed up overnight is still there so less cold for 12-18 hours Monday into Monday night. No frontal battleground scenario but lots of kinks in those isobars suggesting plenty of snow showers (850s would support snow down to sea level).