FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

The UKMO fax charts if correct would produce a good northerly. Also features can pop up if the air pressure is not too high. It's far too early to determine if there will be snow and what amounts. Let's focus on getting the cold in first, which almost looks like a done deal at this stage

What I don't like is that all models now have taken steps towards the GFS in terms of the less 'clean" northerly flow. At this stage all models show the cold airflow from the north just about reaching us Monday the 15th, before the upper flow turns westerly and we end up with a cool airmass but not cold after 24 hours.

After this, it is signalled that the low approaching from the SW could slide east and drag the really cold air back in, but this is all the way out at day 8/9 again.

The GFS was out on its own with the complications in getting the arctic airmass south due to to the PV lobe over scandi extending towards Iceland and southern GL. But at the moment it looks it has been correct with this theme for some days, despite all the other models going against it.

Meanwhile Aperge has this.

One thing it seems consistent about from the last couple of runs is possible height rises to the north east in deep fi. I don't have the stamina for another chase if this one goes belly up with a rain to snow event, but still there is lots to be positive about like you say .

Would not say the GFS was right. It was throwing out mild charts for a period there up to and including the weekend. Some of its output verges on the downright batty. I think its more of a case if it and the UKMO/ECM converging. ECM by far the more consistent of the lot bar one wobble on Saturday morning last. Each model has their own failings at times.

It has been trending cold for next week for the bones 10 days and nothing much has changed other than we are heading into the reliable period and the cold is holding. It looks like we have a decent and potentially disruptive cold snap/spell on our doorstep. There is a risk of slider snowfall events or the lows may stay south of us leaving us in what looks like, at times, a rather unstable airflow. Such a setup has not been seen in January for at least a decade. And I don't remember the last time the UK Met Office was so bullish about extended cold in mid winter.

its a complte head F**K,

it would drive you out of your mind.

And what do you think about the weather

I have no doubt that the risk exists but it will probably be a nowcast for snowfall, as it usually is @nacho libre.

I have only started to really enjoy weather watching in the last year or two when I decided to ditch getting drawn on a particular set/op run. The GFS in particular is a disaster for jumping to different conclusions run to run. Ensembles are the way to go. For what it's worth, in the 15 years or more I am looking at them I really don't think they have advanced a huge degree with medium to long term output. It's the 1-5 day range where they have improved greatly. That's why we should really start nailing down the finer details from here on in. I think the general trend is set.