FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

I don't really think they have moved towards the gfs. More they have changed a little. Every model was saying the same thing last week . Some wobbled a bit (ecm) others not much. But the gfs has thrown every thing at us over the last 4 days or so. It might be right about elements of how next week work out but I nearly put that down to luck at this stage

If memory serves me correct, you got a great snowfall in your location in Clare the last time we had snow. It was quite localised and lasted a while too. When was that exactly?

Anything I see on X is for a notable snow event next week? UKMO seems to be really digging in!

Well it does the most daily runs so there is bound to be variation, but despite the variation it looks like it maybe right about the waning of heights over Greenland and us relying more so on wedges of heights. However there is still a possibility that it swings back to the morning run on future output.

Even with this current run there is a chance of a snow event or two, but like WolfEeire said it will be a nowcast, as it so often is, to determine what areas get snow from any frontal event next week.

UKMO mixing in more Atlantic influence too. All very finely balanced.

(3) 10 Day Trend 10/01/2024 – Could we see snow next week - Met Office Weather Forecast - YouTube

Very interesting if a little 'bullish' forecast.

I really hope we aren't starting to p**s against the wind with this. Once the signs started a few days ago that the Atlantic would likely start to effect things I have been fearing only getting some type of watered down cold spell.

It's always a bad sign when you see progged heights over Greenland begin to wane.

The ECM has unfortunately followed the GFS with having the system go too far north, initially it looked like the cold would filter back south but we end up with the worst outcome. A snow to rain is a poor showing if that's what we end up with

I hope it's a massive outlier, but that's two poor runs now. And the GFS ensembles have trended the wrong way. If we don't see a upgrade in the next 24 hours. I would expect to see a change in the UKMO text outlook for next week. Hopefully not in the longer term outlook, though.

I would argue we've not taken any steps forward for a large number of days now. Once we seen that GFS and ECM wobble late last week, that was the writing on the wall for me with regards to this spell. Too much marginality, I don't like these setups and there is a bit of personal bias here being that I live quite literally within 2km from my closest coast so it takes a lot for me to get snow without going to chase it elsewhere.

Fair play and dos to anyone analysing the models regularly on this, especially WolfeEire. However, I can't get any excitement out of any of it personally until we see a nice Griceland to Scandi high drawing in an airmass from the Urals at day 4 and that is not going to happen so I'm sitting this one out and whatever happens, happens.

I've been wrong before and that's not to say I am right - March 2023 surprised me for example and I enjoyed that period though we don't talk about the rest of the month.

But you are not that far from the Wicklow Mountains. So you perhaps can still get your snow fix next week. You had some fantastic pictures from up there last year.

I want to ask you a question: Why do models seem to continually prog a Greenland high only for the signal to wane closer to the time. I ask because model technology has improved over the years, but we still see this time again. Is it because they can't factor in Shortwaves that might develop to scupper them. That doesn't seem a plausible explanation, though .

No doubt I will be off to Wicklow, it's a tradition of mine at this point! Even did it for the joke of a spell in late Nov/early Dec 2023 and got some slight snow there but not a lot.

It's purely an overreaction to background signals I believe. New data is inputted into their supercomputers and the models run away with the idea to an extreme extent initially and as more data comes in, this extreme signal wanes to something more realistic. Models still have their biases to remember when viewing and considering them however especially at an extended lead time such as the GEM being known to overamplify. The ECM used to be known for this too, who remembers its phantom easterly days in years like 2016-17? Not sure that problem exists as much anymore. The GFS still has inherent problems with blowing up depressions in strange fashions.

It’s a serious rollercoaster that has my mind boggled!!