FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

I can semi read some of the models as they are put up and this thread has been brilliant in recent days. However with the way it was (is?) going I'll be screaming at the screen about what should be happening outside while my wife goes out with an umbrella and I wear ski goggles and crampons in the kitchen.

to my amateur eyes, this is generally turning into a damp squib for the duration of the spell. Last week was looking a lot more promising (as expected in FI) with the charts being in loo loo land. While the majority of charts still are, I feel as though yesterday's gfs has set some sort of trend with more of a milder theme. Personally im finished watching this spell. i hope im wrong, and ill hand you over to wolfeire who somehow seems to be controlling his patience :)

When you have no expectations you are generally less annoyed when things don’t turn out how you want them!

I’ve also lost interest in this chase. The juicy charts have been watered down too much and I’ve lost all faith unfortunately.

WolfEire, you have been brilliant with the analysis and fair play for constantly keeping us up to date.

Like some others in the east, I am biased and long for a proper easterly wind to blow in snow showers where I am. So if a Scandi high is in the offing I will get excited.

Generally when must posters on here get excited I don't and vica versa,we seem to share opposite experiences, last winter was great here in Donegal, I had a few snow days overall, the first time in a long time. 2018 Emma was such a bore fest here, no snow and the frost was useless as it was so dry with the easterly there was nothing to freeze here. A northerly will give good snow at my location the easterly can come then to keep it from melting..

A lot of people packing it in here but with such a big spread in the ensembles I'm still on the hunt. We all know it can turn right back around to what we want overnight. It's clearly quite a complex evolution and nobody including the models has a firm handle on what will happen from Monday onwards. More runs needed lol

The main models we use are still purely mathematical, physics equations based number crunchers.

AI (deep learning) models are an emerging tech and show great promise. You can view some of their output here https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets=%7B%22Product%20type%22%3A%5B%22Experimental%3A%20Machine%20learning%20models%22%5D%7D

But you don't need AI to tell you that unless models and ensembles are in very good agreement about a cold event, they usually trend milder as we move closer to the event.

Been lurking and reading the posts with interest here myself but always had the feeling that thugs were going to go pear shaped in the end. I’m old which to just about remember the 82 effect and remember it being great. Not old enough to renege if it was expected but many of the other score events I’ve experienced haven’t been nailed down behaved. I went to bed last hear in March 9 thinking we’d just about get a snag scattering of score only to wake up to a pasting. Like @WolfeIRE i was lucky to be in the right place at the right time. 2010 I was in Dublin so benefited from the sea streamers then. 2018 was a rare nailed kn event. Really ask I want is she sustained cold and nice clear days. I’m more short we might not even achieve that next week really.

it seems like we’re chasing ever diminishing odds really. If the planet is heating up as they are saying it seems like these true cold spells will become nite and nite marginal with each passing year. It’s kind of depressing rash when you think about it like that, especially as we are also a small landmass with a huge maritime influence at the best of Times

@WolfeEire

at this stage, if it literally only snowed in 1 spot in Ireland after all of the previous promising charts , i pray its in your back garden.

If anyone here deserves it, it is you.

Oh god, what have I done!!! 😂

Can we stick to the non-experimental models? There's enough clutter of different models already.

18z GFS op run much colder. Will take a look at ensembles to see if it verifies

South Nacho. I would bet my life on it knowing the gfs

I was watching yr for arklow and it had snow being dumped between 17 and 19th and then after lunch today no mention of snow. I felt so sad and down. I definitely need to take a break from reading all the posts. The highs and lows are so emotionally draining.