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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    It does cover in the poll which seemingly the majority of people have no issue with a reduction in the major asset they will own their entire life.

    That alone calls into question the results of the poll. It is deluded to think the majority of people have no problem putting themselves into negative equity, especially if you have lived during and after the crash and the affect it had on people

    Whispers now for a while these polls have been infiltrated, this one would suggest that is the case.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,969 ✭✭✭✭blanch152




  • Registered Users Posts: 27,969 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    This is complete nonsense. As someone who has claimed to have studied economics, you must have missed an awful lot of classes if you don't know about public sector inefficiency.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭standardg60


    The majority of Irish people put the good of others over their own self-interest in polls.

    FTFY.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    If you're unable to put the good of others ahead of your own thats unfortunate, but its rather telling to blame the polls rather than admitting you're just in a selfish minority.

    SF, who's stated goal is this thread topic, are going to be by far the biggest political party in the state after the next election. So plenty of Irish homeowners will apparently vote selflessly too.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    The problem here is you want people to put the good of others ahead of your own, so people who own a property fall into negative equity

    Then the people who get these houses, will they do the same? not a chance in hell.

    "selfish minority" 😂

    Try doing an actual proper vote on that with real people and not some questionable poll and see what answers you get



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭standardg60


    It's well known that people when polled face to face are more likely to answer in the positive for fear of being judged by their questioner.

    As for your statement, i'd be careful what i'd wish for. Some people vote for the opposition for no other reason than to stick it to the man, i'd be of the opinion that a lot of those were horrified at how close SF came to power and will think again.

    Time will tell but i think their time has passed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    In last election the reports of a revolt vote turned out to be true, will the same people pick SF again just so they dont have to pick the other two? or could they go for a revolt vote and just vote independents?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,754 ✭✭✭standardg60


    Every Tom, Dick and Harry i'd have thought, especially anyone who murmurs about immigration.

    A further divide along the lines of left and right in the normal sense ie. Conservative-Nationalist/Socialist-Liberal, which is a problem for SF as most of their voters are actually right wing.

    Where that leaves us in terms of Government, who knows, but i think i'd prefer the status quo.

    Interesting times ahead.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,717 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Looks like waffle to me.

    And there's zero there incentivising construction either.

    More apprenticeships are offered now for it, engineering, accounting, public sector etc than construction, so your reference to a general apprentice policy amounts to nought.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,717 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Tell me, who's infiltrating the polling companies?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    A question what was the amount of decline you are talking about? The size of the decline will obviously impact a person's view.

    The current average house price in Dublin is about 430k to get it down to 300k. That's a 30% drop which is huge. If you want to get the average house price in Dublin down to 300k practically everyone who bought over the last feed year's and probably even further is going to forced into negative equity. That's a massive problem for 2 reasons

    1. For better or worse it's very hard for banks to repossess houses meaning a sharp decline in asset values means it will hard for mortgage holders to sell their way out of trouble. This will lead to the banks or the Central bank to tighten lending criteria making it harder for people to get a mortgage in the first place. Or more loans being sold off by banks to keep them solvent.

    2. Having a large number of people in negative equity is not exactly a way to keep voters happy as anyone who was around at the end of the 2000s knows.

    And look grand you say all above is rubbish you still have about a third of people who are opposed to their property values dropping at all. A lot of NIMBY campaigns have been built on far less people. You need to combine that with the fact that due the nature of the Irish voting system annoying a sizeable and very vocal part of your voter base will cost you 2nd/3rd preferences etc, transfers that are critical to politicians being elected. There are enough problems with NIMBYs as it is without giving them more ammunition.

    It's one thing a government selling houses for 300k/social housing and it's another thing completely a government causing a house price crash which what we are talking about is you want the average house price in Dublin to drop to 300k.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    You can doubt the polls as much as you want (which is odd and rather irrational, but however), instead feel free to have a look at the election odds with the bookies. They get these things right because when they don't it costs them large amounts of money. SF are absolutely locked in as going to be the largest party in Ireland after the next election according to their odds.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    I don't want to sound too harsh here, but... do you have reading difficulties? You've posted twice now apparently unable to read a fairly simple, short, article that answers the questions you're asking.

    The polls in question are literally, and clearly labeled, about the goal of reducing average Dublin house prices to €300k. Which 69% of Irish people are in favour of, including 63% of people even if it includes their own home value depreciating. Thats a substantial majority of the voters in our democracy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    It's a poll, not a vote. It's a small segment of the population and trying to claim it is a substantial majority of the voters in our democracy is total nonsense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,717 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Is Messi better than Ronaldo?

    No


    Is Messi better than Ronaldo?

    No, I couldn't say he is or not. I'm not really into football.


    That's a world of difference.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo




  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    So prices should never come down to protect the tiny minority of people who bought a vastly overpriced home between mid 2021 to the present.


    What a ludicrous notion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Prices will fluctuate of course but my post was a response to a poll.

    Who are the “tiny minority”? I suggest you google home ownership rates in Ireland



  • Registered Users Posts: 361 ✭✭Cheddar Bob


    Houses have only been ludicrously overpriced from about 2005 to 2009 and 2021 to the present.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,586 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Baloney.

    What people say and what people actually support, when it impacts them directly, are two different things.

    Over 70% of adults in this country own their own home.

    There is not a chance that the majority of them want to see their house value fall.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,586 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    That is a very different thing than forming a govt, when you dont have a majority support.

    FFG can easily lock SF out of govt again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 37,302 ✭✭✭✭the_syco


    How about we tell those that fund the building of new houses that they can only sell new houses that have been begun to be built from the start of the new year at €300,000?

    IMO, it's possible. Of course, all developments that were started will take an extra year or two to complete, as labour will be cut as the land & materials will already have been bought.

    Any future developments won't be on expensive land. Houses & gardens will be smaller, with developments being higher density. And no new developments within Dublin. The race to the bottom will be quick.


    And yes, read the above with heavy sarcasm. Because this won't happen. But it'd be the only way that new houses will be sold at 300k. As for existing houses, sell at what the seller wants to sell at. Unless you demand that they sell for 300k. Which would mean no-one will sell their house.



  • Registered Users Posts: 749 ✭✭✭GSBellew


    This assumes that the asset will appreciate over the course of the Mortgage to offset the loss on a rent of under the Mortgage payment.

    You are suggesting that a landlord should let someone live in a property for less than the Monthly cost of repayments gambling on a future return that may not materialise, that would not be a sound investment at all.

    We are 20 years in our house paying our mortgage, in that time prices went up, then way down to a little over a third of the purchase price and now back up to the purchase price or thereabouts, if there is another crash it'll be way down again, so if I was renting below cost to someone, paying over 50% in tax on the rental income I wouldn't be in a great spot at all, I'm not a landlord, but if I were I also would not be a charity either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    "according to the latest Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent opinion poll."

    Hardly a definitive source.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Depends on the house

    Some are, others are not. A blanket statement like that doesn't cover all area.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,845 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I remember the celebrations in the street when house prices fell as dramatically as Mary-Lou is suggesting in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.

    We were all absolutely delighted.

    I would absolutely guarantee that these people who suggest they'd be happy to see house prices drop to 300k have deluded themselves into thinking that such a drastic change in the market can happen without a drastic change to their own circumstances. They think it might only impact them a little bit.

    It is difficult to put stock in such a poll as I do not believe the people asked actually understood the question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,717 ✭✭✭MegamanBoo


    Were people that upset about house prices falling in those years?

    Or was it the unemployment and emigration?

    At the time I remember thinking it was a bit of a silver lining that house prices were falling, gave a bit of hope of being able to afford one some day.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,845 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The two go hand in hand. This is the point.

    People think that house prices can change so drastically, so quickly, without serious economic change involving unemployment and emigration. This is what I mean by people delude themselves into thinking house prices can drop to 300k while it only affects them a little bit.

    "House prices dropping to 300k is very likely to happen only if there are major negative economic events involving mass job losses, wage cuts and emigration? Do you support house prices falling to 300k in these circumstances?" is really what the question needs to be.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Well until you poll a few thousand adults in Ireland, and get a different result, its the best evidence of support levels for this policy that we have. Your own personal opinion isn't worth much as actual research.

    Have a look at Geuze's charts in this very thread. House prices in Ireland have consistently risen over the long term continually since the formation of the state. The price of an average Irish house was £6,700 in 1970, to €370,000 in 2023. Its impossible to not have achieved massive capital appreciation over a 25 or 30 year mortgage time frame unless you somehow destroyed your house or are some other extreme statistical outlier case.

    I'm not suggesting anything, I'm pointing out the financial realities of being a landlord in Ireland in the year 2024. Which is that its not required to have your rental income cover your mortgage to make a large, long term, financial profit. Anyone telling you otherwise is either lying, or very bad at maths.

    Anyone not planning on selling a house soon (ie, most home owners) aren't practically effected by a drop in house prices. What exact change in circumstances would a 20% home valuation drop have on the average home owner, who either owns their home mortgage free or has very little mortgage left?

    But plenty of said home owners are today being massively negatively effected day to day by the current high house prices - hundreds of thousands of people in their 20s and 30s living in their parents houses, local businesses unable to get workers, large MNCs unable to convince foreign staff to move to Ireland etc.

    The "I don't like the [widely respected organisation] poll results, I know better" response by posters in this thread is pretty hilarious. Anything to desperately avoid accepting you're out of touch with the majority of the population, and that most people in the country do infact want a sharp drop in housing prices.



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