FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

The GFS continuing to throw up wild scenarios that evolve substantially with each run.

There's lessons even the most passive model observers know from ALL warm summer or cold winter spells, when models struggle to reach consensus they immediately try pulling the Atlantic back into play.

Its a bit like setting a computer to default settings, let’s see how this afternoons runs roll out.

I'm liking ECMWF ensembles today, less mild options up to Friday, mainly dry down South but that change, as many always say, get the cold in first and I'll happily take cold frosty and dry weather over mild muck

I ordered a couple of sledges for the kids yesterday and then I checked here to see the Atlantic coming back and mild weather being discussed! I may have jinxed it for ye all

Im not being overly reactive.

It's more like the slow train .....

to snow-wheresville!

Loooonnng time lurker like so many others on here. Thanks to all for your ongoing insights, fascinating stuff!

Following these last 2 weeks in particular is like an abusive relationship, I just can't stay away 😢 😂

Hoping for snow 🌨

A greater number of colder (and some very cold) 850hpa showing up amongst the GEFS members in the 06z run compared to the 00z run. A 5-7 day cold spell is currently indicated by the model. Again, I am hesitant to speculate about snowfall potential (of which there is some) until closer to the time. It's important to get the cold in and assess 2-3 snow potential from model output this weekend as we get closer to the event.

For those who do not know, hPA stands for hecto Pascal which is a unit to measure air pressure. The 850 hPa temperature or '850s' you see us reference here is the temperature at about 1500m/5000ft. It is a much better guide for assessing potential cold spells as it is not affected by ground topography or sea temperatures which can influence ground level air temps. 850s of -5c or lower are generally regarded as conducive, along with a host of other factors, including precipitation, dew temps etc, for snowfall. Occasionally, especially in mid-winter, the -5c bar is negated by other factors like evaporative cooling, lapse rates etc. More here - https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2056524447/why-we-use-850hpa-temperature-charts

Bbc 24 forecasters who's service is provided by meteogroup are now expecting the system next week to head into France

The 3 magpies also mean you will be having a baby girl soon. Congrats.

Well the longer the cold is in place the greater the GB snow cover and the lower their surface air will be if we get pleasured with an Easterly or northeasterly and thats the missing ingredient vs other notable Snowy spells

Both the UKMO and meteogroup have an occlusion heading into Scotland Tuesday or Wednesday with a mild sector that cuts off the cold for a while prior to anything coming up from tge southwest

It's better then that the adores low goes into France as it won't be cold enough for many more people yet

Icon looking good so far..

potentially a north easterly evolving day 6?

The 12z is rolling out, not great.

Turns even worse:

The UKMO is a very Snowy scene for next Thursday in Ulster and the west and maybe Midlands in a returning artic northwesterly

It also looks like it woukd progress to an artic northeasterly plastering everyone else as the low in the north sea drops further

There's more in this chase yet folks

It would be very nice if the ECM followed the UKMO it would give you a bit more confidence that the GFS is off on one. Tonight's ECM could be crucial. This is my first time ever saying that.