FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Monday night into Tuesday on the ICON

Pub run dumps White stuff. Pity it's still at day 7, but getting somewhere..

Bank! Sorry for our South Eastern friends though. Anyway as we all know these charts are not to be relied on, they are just for fun

Not a bad GFS 18z. The Atlantic roars back in on Saturday week though.

Next week looks better with shallow lows meandering around a null-pressure expanse (not high, not low and isobars of 4hPa difference anything up to 500 miles apart!) I think the warm SSTs will create lots of shallow lows that will dump heavy slow-moving shower bands across us!

Somebody wake up Gonzo and tell him it's no longer a dream. Over to you Wolf for the details

Gonzo is only interested in easterlies

I have to admit, I can't hide in the shadows. The 18z is much better from both the operational and the ensembles. The operational has that low all the way down to France and precipitation is not even getting into the English Channel. That's one hell of a southerly correction and as WolfeEire says is well supported by its ensembles.

The ensemble mean is down as low as -8C for early next week and even -10C for some England locations. Clearly a more clean northerly feed.

Can't believe corrections like this still happening at day 4. Ridiculous but not the first time we've witnessed changes this close. Will it last to other runs or has the 18z overdosed too much tonight?

Scotland, Ireland, and northern England get decent snow, most of Wales and England don't. Probably a bit of disappointment with this run over on NetWeather.

night time temperatures over the snowfields

Cold for a fair few days.

As cold a GEFS ensembles set we have seen so far this winter which is all the more remarkable due to the GFS being the laggard for so long regarding this cold spell.

The Azores low sinks south due to the regression of the heights extending over Iberia allowing a more easterly track of the low i.e. not ENE toward southern Ireland and southern Britain before pulling away. That low may have brought frontal snow for some but its new trajectory has allowed for deeper cold to develop over Ireland. This is coupled with a resilient Greenland High pressure system keeping the Atlantic at bay a little longer.

Were this output to verify there would be some rare ice days in Ireland away from exposed coastal spots. The airflow by midweek is relatively unstable and slow moving which would produce snowfall. I firmly believe it will be a nowcast scenario regarding snowfall.

It turns less cold during Saturday into Sunday but it will feel raw in moderate Westerly winds with continued snowfall possible on high ground well inland. The latter is a long long way off however, so further changes will occur. All eyes on the overnight runs.

Surely tomorrow and Saturday we should know how cold it will likely be up to Wednesday/ Thursday. As regards snow that will always be much closer to the time. Regarding longativity of the cold probably won't know that until around next Tuesday imo.