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USA 2024 presidential election

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    #242
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,072 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121597548#Comment_121597548

    Obvious caveats, the election is ten months away, polling is shaky, but right now Biden is not in a great place and even he would admit that.

    Its not merely due to evangelicals , heck they have always gone to the GOP, what's worrying Dem strategists is Trump and the GOP are building a working class coalition, and are beginning to make serious inroads with Black and Hispanic voters also.

    So yes chatter about Christian Nationalism I understand but the appeal of the GOP is so much more complex than that ATM.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/04/new-republican-party-working-class-coalition-00122822



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    #243
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,393 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Chris Christie is out.



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    #244
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121600850#Comment_121600850

    Should have gone weeks ago TBH.

    As laudable as it was for him to be the only one willing to actually challenge Trump directly, by hanging on all he was doing was splitting the "Not Trump" vote.



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    #245
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Christie never had a chance. Be amusing if Haley's close going in to SC primary, one she could theoretically win.



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    #246
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121601180#Comment_121601180

    She's currently almost 30 points behind Trump in her home State...

    Trump on 53% , Haley on 24% , RDS on 12%

    That's a LOT of ground to make up..



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    #247
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,631 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121601225#Comment_121601225

    With a little help from the USSC, it might be easy.



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    #248
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,297 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121601461#Comment_121601461

    If I was a betting man (I'm not) I'd say she'll be the VP choice (you know the choice Trump has made but refuse to share with anyone...) with the aim to become President in 2028 with Trump's blessing. Ticks both their goals; Trump get's the token female VP again and snubs Ron while she gets a foot in the door for 2028 when Trump can't run (assuming he does not die on the post).



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    #249
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121601487#Comment_121601487

    Dunno, that loony from Arizona is still out there (and out there).



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    #250
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121601487#Comment_121601487

    Not convinced on the VP thing.

    I don't think Trump wants anyone with their own aspirations or with a profile that might steal his limelight.

    He wants an utterly subservient lapdog as arm-candy.

    Haley will have her own ideas and will want to take credit for things as part of her planning for the future, Trump simply won't allow that.

    My money is still on Kristy Noem.



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    #251
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,076 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yeah I don't think he'll pick any of the people who ran against him. Noem is a good shout actually.



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    #252
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,072 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121602160#Comment_121602160

    A nobody from a safe red state where about 12 people live in? Maybe but unlikely.

    Trump will be tactical here and while Haley has slowly started landing blows she has far from nuked him.

    Its a deal that makes sense from both sides, Trump gets access to her donors and helps in the suburbs while been Trump's vp is her only path to the top slot.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121601225#Comment_121601225

    I think all the endorsements on the ground have gone to Trump also which is even more bleak for Haley.

    She could beat Ron for 2nd in Iowa, maybe nick NH but losing her home state is game over.

    I forgot also that Nevada is after NH where Haley has no presence so even if Trump loses NH he gets back the momentum quick enough to set him up for SC.



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    #253
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603154#Comment_121603154

    Unless Haley has big money donors that plan to sit out the election if she isn't involved , they don't really factor in.

    If he's the GOP nomination, he gets the GOP money.

    Trump wants what probably doesn't exist - A female VP candidate that helps him in the suburbs but that is absolutely not a threat to his limelight and who will not try and do anything other than exactly what he demands.

    Noem ticks all the boxes in terms of being an utterly empty skirt without any individual personality that might threaten Big Donny that also can be spun as having great "MAGA" credentials from her time as Governor.

    She won't do a whole lot for him in the 'burbs though.

    Haley can actually speak in coherent sentences (albeit bullsh!t) and as such is a threat to Donald so he won't want her.

    He wants Pence in a dress but even more supine and invertebrate - Haley isn't that.



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    #254
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603154#Comment_121603154

    She's eye-candy. All that TFG cares about.



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    #255
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,076 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The effect of a VP on the ticket is minimal. Moreso with Trump at the top of the ticket. The state they're from is irrelevant.

    As for 2028. He'll think that he'll somehow be able to run again - after all, this is a man who thought that he'd be able to stay in office after losing an election. As such he'll pick someone who poses absolutely no threat to him and who kisses his ass.

    By virtue of the fact that they ran against him and criticised him (mildly) both Hailey & De Santis will be out of the running.



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    #256
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,292 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604217#Comment_121604217

    The effect of a VP on the ticket is minimal. Moreso with Trump at the top of the ticket. The state they're from is irrelevant.

    Well precisely. When a candidate behaves and speaks like the Presidency is or should be that of an absolute monarch, the "vice president" role means nothing. Mike Pence was a useful tool to get and keep the evangelicals on side - now the mask the off, the pretence is gone. I don't know who'd be mad enough to take the VP role - but from Trump's PoV I can't imagine what strategic value it might bring this time.



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    #257
    Flaneur OBrien
    Registered Users Posts: 3,682 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604322#Comment_121604322

    Mad enough you say? I think I know the perfect foil.


    maga-az-race-278470704.jpg




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    #258
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121605055#Comment_121605055

    Too mouthy and too interested in her own Media profile - Trump wants a "Stepford wife" as a VP.

    They are there to be seen and not heard and on the rare occasions they are to be heard it will only be to tell everyone how utterly awesome Donald is.



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    #259
    Flaneur OBrien
    Registered Users Posts: 3,682 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121605201#Comment_121605201

    You want to look at previous winners of "The Apprentice" to gauge what he's looking for.



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    #260
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,295 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121605055#Comment_121605055

    Her defamation case looks set to go to trial after a second judge threw out her request to quash the charges. Trump is too smart to want anything to do with that imo.



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    #261
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,072 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121604217#Comment_121604217

    Pence definitely helped with the God squad in 2016 so it can be a bonus if got right sometimes.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121603447#Comment_121603447

    Don't want to lower the tone but Haley is attractive. On Haley people are ignoring while she has somewhat begin to politely ding Trump she has spent an absolute fortune in attacking RDS and sinking him in Iowa thus doing Trump a favor which he will be very aware off. Ron was always struggling but the money she has spent on burying him is remarkable especially considering she has spent sfa attacking the front runner.

    On looks, I have money on Stefnik but she may struggle because she is someone people might think is not that attractive. I don't think she is ugly especially compared to the gargoyles we see in politics, but Trump is a pig so that will probably sink her unfortunately.



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    #262
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,072 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121605643#Comment_121605643

    She is running for senate also so that also rules it out.

    That's an issue for November for such a key battleground state, having such polarising candidates in Lake and Trump on same ticket is such a high risk, because while Arizona is still a Conservative state its most certainly not a MAGA state.



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    #263
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609606#Comment_121609606

    Pence was essentially a zombie who delivered Evangelical votes, and had zero visibility while VP. Trump won't want anything that distracts from the attention on him. Stefanik's way too political and likely too east coast. Noem seems sufficiently zombie and photogenic to make the cut plus has some anti-mask anti-vacc "credibility" that would help with keeping the MAGAts in line. Thing is, there's some salacious gossip about her and that brute Corey Lewandowski were doing the dirty while she was married to someone else and despite being all family values .

    "He's definitely banging her."

    https://nypost.com/2023/09/15/kristi-noem-corey-lewandowski-affair-shakes-up-trump-running-mate-stakes/




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    #264
    Lucien_Sarti
    Registered Users Posts: 66 ✭✭Lucien_Sarti


    Since 1868 (or arguably a few elections earlier, with party name changes) the Republicans & Democrats have between them won 100% of elections held.

    What a simply splendid record for their backers! </sarc>

    Both parties donors come from the same pool of benevolent, generous oligarchs; and in all cases the candidate with the largest election fund has won (maybe the alternate party has won before with the 2nd largest fund, I’m not sure).

    What I’m seeing on social media, very few voters under 35 are buying the 3rd party is a wasted vote canard any longer. No need to say they’d laugh at the suggestion of voting R or D.

    Ross Perot got almost 20 million votes 18.9% in 1992. So if there is even a little co-ordination, I think West or Stein, for example, could win the vote.  

    If things are judged to be slipping from the 100% track record later in the year, I would not rule out oligarch party (D & R) subterfuge or dirty tricks.



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    #265
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121615995#Comment_121615995

    There's not a snowballs chance in hell of a 3rd party candidate winning anything.

    Ross Perot got 19.7M votes you say?

    How many Electoral college votes did he win?

    ZERO.

    Not saying that's right , not at all, but the way the Electoral college is structured a 3rd party candidate simply hasn't got a hope.

    All Perot did was bleed away votes from the incumbent (Bush) and hand Clinton an easy win.

    All ANY 3rd party candidate will do is takes votes away from one or other of the main candidates.

    Perot was right leaning so most of his votes were ones that would have been expected to go to Bush.

    3rd Party candidates are spoilers, nothing more nothing less.

    Yes, that's a massive failing of the Electoral system but absent a root and branch restructuring of how they vote for President that's all they will ever be.



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    #266
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,515 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ah yes, that bastion of voter turnout that is the under 35s.

    Anyway, there is literally zero chance of West or Stein even winning a single electoral vote.



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    #267
    Lucien_Sarti
    Registered Users Posts: 66 ✭✭Lucien_Sarti


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121617797#Comment_121617797

    I’d put it that the electoral college is working as designed. Not unlike the senate, It was set up as a further (geographic) obstacle to democracy - since the slave owning founding fathers knew democracy and capitalism are mutually exclusive. Even in the 1790s the gatekeepers to information (& thus winning elections) were the wealthy newspaper owners. Any one non-conformist newspaper owner or pamphlet distributor could be drowned out geographically by the cartel and thus have no impact on the result.

    As for 3rd party being spoilers: Yes that system worked well, until now where potentially the entire participating electorate has access to seeing thousands of fellow USians expressing disgust for the entire electoral regime. I think Obamas fraudulent PR in 2008, (in hindsight, fool me once ….) & Biden funding genocide in 4k in Gaza are the final straw for the ancien régime – one can hope.

    The younger age groups, that I see on social media, are saying that legacy media only influences or engages boomers or older nowadays. In other words, legacy media has no power or effect on the under 35s (maybe upto under 50s) – it may as well not exist as far as they’re concerned. This is a fast change, it could manifest in this election or the next.

    If any of the 80 or 90 million who don’t vote (I mean those who make that decision because they see the presidential elections as basically a sham run by the oligarchy, not the 18 million racially disenfranchised by states) see a momentum for real change they might reregister and also vote 3rd party. Overall, I am suggesting this charade of a system is on its last legs.



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    #268
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,442 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121618515#Comment_121618515

    Never said the EC wasn't "working as designed" , it absolutely is but that design ensures that a 3rd party candidate hasn't a snowballs chance in hell of getting elected.

    Let's accept your hypothesis and the roughly one third of US adults currently not registered to vote all decide to do so and can their votes for a 3rd party candidate.

    The demographic reality is that the overwhelming majority of those "new voters" will be split across perhaps 6 States (CA , TX , FL , NY , PA , IL)

    Only 2 of those States are really swing states , - Even the addition of ~10M 3rd party votes in California for example wouldn't alter the result , same in Texas , NY and Florida.

    And even in those swing states , 25/30% more voters all voting for a 3rd party likely won't be enough to actually win - Remember winning only requires a plurality of the vote , not a majority.

    IF it were a National Popular vote , then a 3rd party candidate absolutely has a shot in an "American Spring" style scenario with a popular rising of the Under 30 voting block.

    But it isn't , so they don't.

    No matter how broken the Electoral college process is and it IS broken, until it is changed it will continue to deliver a Democrat or a Republican to the White House for ever more.

    And given what legislative hoop would be required to be jumped through to change it (and Turkeys don't vote for Christmas) , it's never getting changed.



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    #269
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,072 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2



    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121617994#Comment_121617994

    This is probably one of the most interesting groups to keep an eye on 2024.

    Biden and Trump will likely retain about 90% or so of their voters from 2020 so both guys need to ensure they hold their various constituencies and right now Biden's numbers with younger people are concerning. Their are numerous caveats, ages away , small polling size etc.

    Trump doesn't need to win this voting bloc but if they don't come out like they did in 2020 then Biden is in all sorts of trouble.

    Israel, climate change, the economic climate and the fact he was never young peoples choice in 2020, heck Clinton wasn't in 2016 makes it very interesting.

    Vox who are a safe space for Dems did a reasonable article on it the other day.

    https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election



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    #270
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,515 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121619144#Comment_121619144

    Yes, it's a concern/problem. Mind you I have seen polls with a plurality of support for Trump among U30s and I just struggle mightily to believe that is true.

    I still think there is a large element of "out of sight, out of mind" with Trump. He has mostly been doing his own rallies to his die-hards with no real coverage. Skipping the Republican primary just keeps him out of the limelight even more. His name is mentioned obviously, but it's not quite the same. Eventually all his talk of dictatorships and his complete incoherency will become more apparent.



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    #271
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,292 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121619144#Comment_121619144

    Trump doesn't need to win this voting bloc but if they don't come out like they did in 2020 then Biden is in all sorts of trouble.

    Israel, climate change, the economic climate and the fact he was never young peoples choice in 2020, heck Clinton wasn't in 2016 makes it very interesting.

    If wandering centrists and left wing Americans can't hold their nose again to keep a man (and movement) openly touting authoritarianism, then there's no hope for the American Experiment.

    2020 was to boot out the man, 2024 is to keep him out. The stakes are pretty clear and if that can't get the young, PoC and liberal out to vote, I don't know what will.

    Post edited by pixelburp on


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