FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

A fairly impressive 850s Mean low of minus 9.3c for Dublin on Monday evening. Belfast drops to an average minus 9.8c. That warm sector on the control run much more pronounced than the mean once again.

By the way, very disheartening to read some of the very personalised comments here this morning. No member has the right to name call or denegrade the contributions of others. Stick to the analysis of models. It makes the thread a nightmare to follow.

Back to the actual analysis now .. we don't often get means like this a week out in January for a cold spell that will commence proper in two days. Roll on some actual winter weather.

On this, today's temperatures at midday are a good gauge for how cold it may get during the daytime next week, never mind the nighttime. We currently have 850s of close to +5c over most of the country and we are getting the below temps with blanket cloud cover and light winds thrown into the mix. Valentia the only spot with clearing skies and, despite traditionally being one of the mildest spots in the country, is maxing at 4c. For the reasons you outlined above and with a drier air source, embedded cold, very low 850s (the mean is 9.3c on Monday eve in Dublin and colder further north) and calmer conditions, daytime temperatures very well may struggle to rise above freezing away from exposed coastal locations (particularly in the SW, S and SE) on one or more days next week.

The GFS control run just gone was at the milder end of the members for the week after next. There are a number of much colder members still showing so a colder solution should not be completely discounted. A return to a less cold, zonal pattern remains strongly favoured as of now.

The last two runs 00Z and 06Z were rather disappointing overall when compared to last night's 18z GFS/ We don't get the sub -5c 850hPa's established for very long, the Atlantic is bring brought forward by 15 hours on the ECM.

If this trend in the models continues through the weekend, the cold spell is a bust, and with the trends I'm seeing (barring an odd drunk 18Z GFS) this is going to be a massive flop for Ireland and apart from a some frontal snow later next week for the UK, it will end there quickly too.

There is a growing theme for the Atlantic to roar, and I mean roar loudly back into life with winds from the SW blasting Ireland by next Friday evening. The angle of attack is brutal too, this cold is going to be brushed aside very easily.

The only hope we have is that the models are overplaying the destruction of the Greenland High - as the UK Met Office have been hinting at, which in fairness their 00Z model is supporting.

But I think we're clutching at straws, for now.

Indeed, I agree. It's most likely to be dry for most - a few wintry showers on favoured coastal counties looks to be what is on offer in regards to precipitation. I'd agree with your temperature profile too, the ground is sufficiently cold enough to allow sub -5c nights in again favoured sheltered areas. As regards frontal snow - I don't see much prospect, perhaps Cavan, Monaghan and NI, but the UK would be more likely to see it - and even at that it won't last long outside Scotland.

I’m very new to looking at weather charts and following these discussions. Many thanks to the experts on here who give up so much time to explain trends so well. Really is a rollercoaster with more lows than highs it seems. But it seems strange how the models seems to improve as each day goes on (if it’s cold you’re after) with nearly every day culminating in an ‘epic’ 18z GFS pub run before the hangover inevitably kicks in for the 00z and 06z before things improve yet again. Anyway, onwards and upwards. No doubt some better charts this afternoon as the Friday beers kick in. Hope everyone sees at least a dusting of Sneachta next week!

Jesus some people in here would suck the life out of you altogether. Just because it isn't 2010 or a storm Emma doesn't mean it isn't enjoyable to follow.

Also someone said these charts are typical or normal in January, since when?

Snow could pop up anywhere next week it's still 4,5,6 days away and who cares if it's only a dusting.

Was about to post the same. I think most of us like the tradition of the Amphibian formerly known as Darkman doing so - if he thinks the time is right?🙏

Speak for yourself, I'm here since 2006 and I still love it 😁

That's absolutely fascinating, I wonder is this a somewhat unique setup recently?, could lead to interesting outcomes hopefully here!

🐸

It’s definitely thread time, deep cold lands within +72hrs… Where are you Frog ?

Snow chances bound to pop up during the week, flow looks relatively unstable to me at times.

For what it’s worth, I am not convinced we go back to a normal zonal pattern after this, a relative warm up perhaps yes, but the polar field is in disarray for the foreseeable and I have no idea what’s going on in the strat, but it doesn’t look conducive to a strong PV.

Looks like Cold zonal after this week with some high pressure wedges at times with some greater potential in early Feb- as others have alluded to already. Depending on how things play out we could hold on to the colder air for far longer than models are currently showing.

FI is +96hrs at the moment really.

Go on, go on, go on ,GO ON

Well if the poster Tamara can be believed, the models maybe too progressive about a return to zonal due to the unique set up, but you have to say across the ensembles they have been fairly resolute about it. Also the EC46 has remained steadfast about the last week of January having a more westerly influence. Anyway I don't want to become that person who looks for the breakdown while there is heavy snow outside- or at least the possibility of some snow. With that in mind I am looking forward to the event thread!