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Cold spell - 14/15th January onward

  • 12-01-2024 2:55pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,307 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    A very cold spell of weather is expected from later Sunday through the following week up to Friday at least, with an anticipated return to less cold conditions next weekend.

    This thread enables us to discuss pre-120hrs and post-120hrs model output without diluting/separating the conversation in the other pre-existing threads.

    This spell of weather has been signalled by model output for the last 10 days + and, in fact, has been touted as a strong possibility by the UK Met Office the week leading up to Christmas. Significant anticipation had built up due to talk of a PV split and solid Greenland blocks. Expectations have subsequently been tempered by the present outlook of 5-6 days of very cold and relatively dry weather. This is not 2010 nor is it 2018 and expectations for same should be dropped. However, cold spells like this in January have been as rare as hen's teeth over the past decade and therefore, merits a thread of its own.

    As things stand (Friday afternoon pre 12z runs), the forecast slow moving and relatively unstable northerly airflow will likely bring snowfall across Ulster, west Connacht and Munster and perhaps further inland, while any troughs that pop up would widen the risk area. These finer details are days away from becoming clearer and can be discussed here.

    Daytime temperatures will hover around 2-4c in all but exposed coastal locations (slightly higher), and will invariably struggle to get above freezing in some locations due to a variety of, as yet, difficult to forecast conditions e.g. existing snow cover, freezing fog, inversion etc. Shaded spots away from the light northerly wind will likely to stay frozen throughout the period and untreated road surfaces will be tricky to negotiate.

    Met Éireann and @M.T. Cranium are suggesting a less cold solution and this thread is in no way set up as a challenge to their forecasts.

    Beyond next Friday, conditions are expected to become less cold as the Greenland High dissipates and a mobile, cold zonal Atlantic pattern takes over (based on current guidance this afternoon). This is a long way off and will be subject to change.

    I will continue to report what the models are saying for my part and I look forward to an interesting week of winter weather.

    Enjoy!

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 272 ✭✭littlema


    As posted on another thread.....tis cold out there. Temp steady all day at 2.1c under heavy cloud but with no wind thankfully.......and this supposed to be on the mild weekend!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,428 ✭✭✭pureza


    I'll weigh in the snow or no Snow debate

    I think anywhere that usually get Atlantic showers in a North or North westerly at any time of the year will see snow showers next week and I expect this thread to fill with snow reports from those areas

    LetterKenny will be a sweet spot as will Derry mainly because this is one of those flows that's not a transatlantic mixed northerly or northwesterly it's a true polar sourced air flow and travelling from where its come from and the route, it will have enough surface cold to keep the precipitation as snow

    Also adding places like Tubercurry to the sweet spots and any western fringes with northerly coastal exposure

    Areas like that should be able to peg snow balls and build snowmen no bother by next Friday in my opinion



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,286 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    The ICON just rolling out is underwhelming I think. -6 uppers are about as good as we do for all bar Monday (and at all down here!)..... No snow to speak of on precipitation charts either



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,307 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    UKMO updated long range mentioning renewed blocking and cold in the period from late January into February. Next weekend's expected less cold turn is backed up by the medium term element of the forecast.


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,683 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    The next chase. Lol the weather is trying to mess with our heads. Though one would imagine being an el nino winter Feb might deliver something good. So perhaps the next chase should bear more fruit if another chase does indeed transpire.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭CardinalJ


    Really feels like the UKMO stick their necks out more that Met E in these type of situations? Maybe I'm being overly simplistic.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,231 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The UK Met can be way more confident because they cover Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and eastern fringes of England where disruptive snow is likely at times where as for Ireland it's a much more marginal situation generally and our geography is very poor for northerlies.

    We have to rely on troughs/convergence lines/polar lows forming to give wintry precipitation and these can pop up at short notice so Met Eireann have to be cautious with very little in the way of precipitation showing currently on the models, this will hopefully change and surprise us later next week.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,649 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    You give us hope WolfEire, that's all you can do. And hope is wonderful. 🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,307 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The GFS 850s mean is about 1c-1.3c colder than the 0z mean from Wednesday morn through Friday. It is a tad less colder than the 00z on Tuesday afternoon and night as I explain below. An upgrade overall for cold.

    That mild sector (best visualised through the below 85s table) on Tuesday continues to show up on the GFS, UKMO and ICON 12z and is much more progressive in these op runs than the 00Z. It doesn't have much of a bearing on daytime temps (staying very low), but it's not as conducive for snow from any showers feeding into northern and western coasts. The greatest risk of snowfall continues to be Ulster and western counties.

    Aside from the above, the 12z GEFS mean is colder than the 00z from Wednesday through Friday.


    Wednesday and Wednesday night temps below. That is based on the op run. All very much subject to change.

    All show a breakdown on Saturday as anticipated with the 'dismantling' of the Greenland High and an intense low spilling out of Newfoundland. Interestingly, the GFS has a more an easterly tilt to the jetstream rather than the ENE tilt of the 00z so it doesn't get quite as mild as @VILLIAN has alluded to as a possibility in the 120+ thread. The jetstream shifts more southward as the GFS op run goes on into that week leaving us in a very mobile and somewhat cold zonal pattern.

    By the beginning of the following week we are in a relatively cold and raging zonal pattern.

    Finally, the GEM was a milder op run than the 00z. I will post the ens when they are out to see where the op lies.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,231 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Not much snow away from Scotland on that GFS run with Atlantic air mixing too much, temperatures across the north-west look too marginal for snow so snow restricted to the hills of Donegal on this one.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,304 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    BRING ON THE SNOW!!!

    🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️ 🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️🌨️



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,534 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It would be sort of funny if the cold zonal period-assuming the GFS is even correct- gives us more snow overall. Was it in 2018 that heavy snow showers pushed well inland from a cold westerly that was returning arctic air sourced from Greenland? Granted in that scenario you aren't going to have powdery snow or snow that stays on the ground for days, but you could get a temporary half decent covering in that scenario.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,231 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    That was my once in a lifetime where I actually got 6 to 8cm of lying snow from a north-westerly. How it worked for me was I got extremely lucky, the winds were much stronger than usual and I benefited from the shortest possible wind landtrack between Sligo Bay and Meath. Normally the winds are either sourced from the north or Donegal or NW Mayo/Galway with longer land tracks. I'm putting my luck down to the shortest possible landtrack combined with very strong winds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,307 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The GEM ensembles mean for 850hpas (explanation of what 850s are here) largely mirrors the 12z GEFS and is colder than the 00z from Sunday eve to Tuesday morn and Wednesday morn to Friday morn. It is a little more progressive with the slow warm up Friday PM on though. That mild sector is again cropping up. It is unlikely to have much of a bearing on surface temps but does make any shower activity on Tuesday PM into early Wed more marginal for snowfall.

    In terms of precipitation you will notice the difference in totals between Letterkenny and Dublin. These charts are based on this run and will change.


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 765 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    Another disappointing 12Z GFS run, if it's snowfall you're looking for.

    Atlantic is still indicated as roaring back but now shifted from late Friday to Saturday afternoon - the only positive I can see in this run.

    Tuesday's mild sector will probably be enough to turn any patchy precip to freezing rain.

    After that it's cold and dry until the Atlantic steam rolls the cold away.

    Not getting excited about a three-day spell of -5c nights and 2c to 3c days - which is just a regular colder than average winter's day for Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,141 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Northern Ireland already in a warning for snow on Monday hopefully donegal, sligo ,Mayo, Leitrim cavan and monaghan being added



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,287 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    The obsession with the breakdown is so frustrating, just enjoy the bloody weather next week and let's see where we're at Mon / Tue when it comes to any breakdown.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,344 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Showers streaming down on the Northerly wind but many places dry . Id expect a snow/ice warning from Met Eireann for Sligo Donegal etc




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭esposito


    Good luck to those in the north, northwest and west next week. Really hope you get a few cm of snow.

    It is quite disappointing that the rest of Ireland probably won’t see any snow based on the current output. Subject to change of course.

    I just hope the Atlantic onslaught does not last too long when it comes back next weekend. Seeing the purples to our northwest on the afternoon models is rather depressing.

    UKMO outlook does give us hope for February.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 412 ✭✭Reversal


    Or the repeated insistance on saying Monday to Saturday is only 3 days :D



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 155 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    @Dazler97 Carrick always looks well when it's white 😉



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,141 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    It absolutely does 💯 hopefully we get a cm of snow ❄️ that's all I'm asking lol



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,353 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Donegal is probably the only county in the Republic that will get snow until later next week. Too dry in that Northerly set up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,867 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Alan Carlow weather posted this at 5pm ish




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    There's always a surprise snowfall area I find in these events. Precipitation making it to somewhere you wouldn't normally expect from the wind source. Especially with low pressure and instability. The usual northern and north western areas will do well. But at some stage something might head a little further south than forecast.

    In early December 2010, different synoptics, i remember a lot of us watched the radar in amazement as a fall of snow began to appear over Tipperary, and it snowed heavily for a few hours. Others will give the meteorological explanation, but it was in no way forecast. It could have been a pocket of warmer air hitting cold already over snowfields already in Tipperary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    North Midlands are always well placed for a bit of a surprise, be it from the North, North West, long fetch Westerlies, the East. Often Westmeath down as far South as Tullamore receives more snowfall than expected.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,389 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Cork Snow shield will be up!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Yes because it's not a raging easterly some posters can't wait to downplay this upcoming cold spell and wish it away as quickly as possible. Most winters we struggle to get frost,let alone snow. We are in for a week of hard frosts and very low day time temperatures,a rarity these days imo. Let's just enjoy the dry crisp weather and see what happens after that. Its so much better than the mild muck we are so used to,I can safely say the majority hated that so why not just enjoy the next week🤷‍♂️



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Do u mind me asking what part of tipp that happened? because in my area I didn't see one flake of snow in Dec 10.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,450 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    That UK met office outlook can change as well. Let's face it outside of 5 days forecasts are very less certain. Yes they can see trends but specifics for Ireland or the UK are very difficult to tie down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    I can't be definite. My guess is north. Give me a few hours and I'll dig out the thread. The first week of December 2010.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 765 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    12 ECM rolling out.

    Massive 'mild' sector on Tuesday afternoon.

    Orientation of the cold flow is more NW'ly than Northerly on Thursday:




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,936 ✭✭✭CrowdedHouse


    Anyone saying it's snowing 'here' should be banned for the duration 😁

    Seven Worlds will Collide



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    No need to,probably was North tipp,Wasn't South anyway. Tipp is a long county



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,875 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I must say I'd be more in line with Met É at the moment. If history teaches us anything its that the modification experienced on our island is usually underestimated.

    I expect it to be raw, but with only mountain snows and a cold drizzle below 300m when there is precip present.

    Overall I hope it will be bright with some sparkling low sunshine, and that the air will be dry and the land will continue to dry out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,307 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    JMA bitterly cold by midweek with northeasterly winds and plenty of disturbances in that airmass. That milder sector in the second half of Tuesday also showing up.

    I'll await the ECMWF ensembles before commenting on the 12z. I suspect it will produce a cold mean.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Woohoo!! the forgotten county won’t be left behind this time, 🥳🥳 I can’t hide my excitement ❄️❄️❄️☃️.

    Hoping a bit of ninja snow spreads further south for more of ye!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Snowing ,without pics to prove it should be a life ban..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 188 ✭✭Condor24


    I wouldn't get over excited by this one. I'm not saying there won't be snow from this, for some favoured spots, and it will be cold for a couple of days, but if we're looking for holy grail cold and snow, which most of us are, we ain't getting it next week. We're gleefully licking up crumbs when it's the full apple pie we want. Onward to February, I'll leave on on optimistic note, some long rangers are saying we're going see a very cold month there.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,641 ✭✭✭✭antodeco


    Like a life ban just on boards or everything? I'd go with the second one myself



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 784 ✭✭✭bazlers


    I just dont see a zonal onslaught ensuing next weekend into early next, just an anemic attempt to try brush aside the colder air.

    Infact if all the background noise is even 60% correct and with an entrenched cold pool in Scandinavia, an Iceland/Scandinavian anticyclone would be more my thinking to develop around last days of January into February.

    I am expecting great weather model watching from mid next week...in my opinion.

    ( if you take anyones advice on a boards forum and not from Met Eireann you are off your tiny minds!)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,141 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    I followed that thread minute by minute when I was 13 those were the days



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,141 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Cold weather advisory set to expire tomorrow I'm sure they will give an extension to it till Tuesday anyway



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,081 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    For sure and that's the reason I never take any snow forecast >24 hours seriously (unless it's frontal). From experience, all other falls here have been either not forecast at all or only spotted a few hours out. I suppose it's because most significant falls are from troughs, streamers or polar lows.

    So if I do see snow forecast more than a day ahead, I expect it to be either dry or raining, as that's what's occurred 9 times out 10 here previously.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 549 ✭✭✭tiegan


    I am in South Tipp, Fethard, and we got the snow then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,307 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    ECMWF ensembles overall not as cold as the 00z but colder than yesterday's 12z. The 850 mean for Monday evening is minus 8.8c which is no 'mean' feat. That mild sector on Tuesday evening and night is a 'right pain'. There is a lot of spread in the ensembles (about 13c) from Tuesday evening so it could be said that this period and beyond then is somewhat FI territory.


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Suppose I would be more southwest,anyway this has gone totally off topic



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,534 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yeah that mild sector is a pain because there will be plenty of precipitation with it but likely to be rain or mixed wintry precipitation at best on lower levels. Watch the precipitation reduce overall as soon as it buggers off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,307 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The only way we avoid is through a westward shift of the heights to enable a broader southward push of that northerly airflow later on Sunday. A northward shove of the Azores low would have the same effect. The small margins as always for our little island. There's time yet perhaps but it looks pretty nailed on across the suite of models. The 18z ICON shows an organised band of rain, sleet and snow pushing from the NW at the same time as that 12 hour mild sector. It would be largely snow otherwise.

    Post edited by WolfeEire on

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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