Public Pay Talks - see mod warning post 4293

My esb bill costs are starting to sharply come down. To me thats a decrease.

Groceries are still shooting up. Electricity costs remain much higher than they were even 12 months ago - note the utilities are being somewhat disingenuous in their price reduction announcements - while the standard rates have dropped x%, the discounts available off that rate remain far lower than before (i.e. 2 years ago most were advertising 30+% discounts off standard rates; ~15% is as good as it gets now).

I'm citing "old" releases because you made a reference to boom time figures in the public service and the boom ended in 2007.

Figures from the DPER state the following:

325,177 worked in the civil service, defence sector, eduction sector, health sector, justice sector, local authorities & NCSA in 2008.

377,310 worked in the same sectors in 2022.

An increase of 16%. . . . Still considerably less than the overall population increase during the same period of 21%.

https://databank.per.gov.ie/Public_Service_Numbers.aspx

If the increase had been 8.5% from 1st January 2024, I might have accepted it. I would have at least considered it.

But the fact that it will take 2.5 years from now to reach that level of an increase, and still in affect leaves us running two years behind inflation, I am not willing to accept that.

I have seen one price decrease by my ESB/GAS provider so far, from November 1st 2023, so I haven't seen any massively reduced bills yet. Due soon, so we'll see. Even so, they are still much higher than 2 years ago.

I have seen no reduction in the price of my shopping trolley, in fact, it's still continuing to increase. For my family my grocery bills have increased by at least 40%-50% in the last two years.

No mortgage interest rate cuts yet either.

Don't shoot the messenger here, happy to provide background workings to this and stand corrected if any of my figures are incorrect:

I have went back over the past three paydeals & tried to work out an effective increase per year (taking into account the number of months each increase was offered etc. And above are the results as well as the CPI Inflation figures.

It basically really shows the importance of when in a year that an increase is given. If it is given in October, it has very little impact on the pay increase in that year. This one been offered is very weighted towards the end of the deal.

First Agreement:

1. 3% Increase from 2nd February 2022
2. 2% Increase from 1st March 2023
3. 1.5% or €750 (whichever is greater) from 1st October 2023

Second Agreement:

1. 1st October 2021: 1% of gross pay or €500 a year, whichever is greater. (Same as above)
2. 1st February 2022: The equivalent of a 1% increase in annualised basic salaries.
3. 1st October 2022: Another 1% of gross pay or €500 a year, whichever is greater.

Projected Offer:

1. 1.5% from 1/3/24
2. 2.0% from 1/10/24
3. 1.0% from 1/3/25
4. 0.5% from 1/6/25 (Bargaining Clause)
5. 1.5% from 1/8/25
6. 1.5% from 1/2/26
7. 0.5% from 1/6/26 (Bargaining Clause)

If we break all of these down to years:

2021

• 1/10/2021: 1%

2022

• 1/2/22: 3% increase (First Agreement) and 1% increase (Second Agreement).
• 1/10/22: 1% increase (Common in both agreements).

2023 (First Agreement)

• 1/3/23: 2%
• 1/10/23:1.5%

2024

• 1.5% increase from 1/3/24 (10 months in 2024)
• 2.0% increase from 1/10/24 (3 months in 2024

2025

• 2.0% increase continuing from 1/10/24 (up to 1/3/25, so 2 months in 2025)
• 1.0% increase from 1/3/25 (8 months in 2025)
• 1.5% increase from 1/8/25 (5 months in 2025)
• Local bargaining clause: 0.5% from 1/6/25 (7 months in 2025)

2026

• 1.5% increase continuing from 1/8/25 (up to 1/2/26, so 1 month in 2026)
• 1.5% increase from 1/2/26 (11 months in 2026)
• Local bargaining clause: 0.5% from 1/6/26 (7 months in 2026)
• Additional 2% increase in subsequent agreements (we'll assume this starts from 1/1/26 for the full year)

The percentage increases considering time apportionment are:

• 2021: 0.25%
• 2022: 3.93%
• 2023: 2.05%
• 2024: 1.76%
• 2025: 1.93%
• 2026: 3.83%

All this talk of so-called pay rises yet no one ever mentions that the Pension Related Deduction (introduced by Brian Lenihan in 2010 and called a "direct pay cut" by Lenihan at the time) still remains intact to this day.

A far cry from the increments + pay increases state employees will be getting. Also not matching the rate of inflation.

I assume you'll be referring to the pay increases in 2025 accordingly, by carrying over the 1.75% you're excluding for 2024 and adding to the scheduled increases already proposed for 2025? What is the annualised increase for 2025 then? Much better than the proposed rates suggest .

Increments are not a substitute for inflation matching increases.

What about those who are just starting at a grade? Are they just expected to suffer?

And those progressing along the increments are just accepting the same real pay year to year because of inflation? What a fool.

And the spin marchents on here take any growth in private pay, where very often increments are not a thing, and want to apply the same growth to public pay on top of increments.

The offer from the Government should be more front loaded but this "terrible" offer is still better than the comparison you are making when the duration of the deal ends.

Maybe if they offered something a bit healthier than a chicken fillet white roll, I might be more inclined to buy lunch more often.

More importantly perhaps, the entire economy for ISME members does not depend on my personal lunch choices, so there's that.

There was a very narrow discussion centered on establishing the correct growth in PS numbers.

Any economy with full employment will have sectoral staff retention and recruitment issues. You also have to recognize that no organization will admit to being fully or overstaffed.

R&R issues are not solely caused by pay. Stating that almost 400k people need a higher pay offer because of a couple of sector specific claims is crazy.

Salaried teachers not wanting to correct State exams points to a wider issue imo but will leave that here to avoid upsetting any teachers.