Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2023/2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

With only some of the precipitation area being hatched, this would suggest that the chances of lying slow are somewhat lessened with the likelihood that most areas away from high ground (which means most people) will probably see falling snow but melting on contact, at best. Of course, anywhere up high like the Reeks in Kerry would probably see any snow falling to lie readily, elevation dependent of course.

Then there's the air pressure. This is forecast to be will above 1030 hPa. This does not lend itself to allowing clouds to build to a height where precipitation can fall so cloud heights will probably be rather modest

This is why the amount of precipitation forecast to fall is very small. That in itself does not bode well as small amounts of snow falling in a fairly marginal setup usually results in damp ground.

Then there's the wind; it looks like there'll be a breeze during any precipitation events. This will result in evaporative cooling being unlikely to occur as there'd be a fair of mixing of the air, something that can be essential during marginal events like this. Any mixing of marine air will kill any chances of snow falling. This is likely to be the case closer to the coast. Inland and up high are the best places but of course, the further inland you are, the less likely you are to have precipitation in the first place

In short, I'm nowhere convinced that anyone away from high ground will see a white covering of snow from this "event".

The ukmo also has it. Light ppn but under minus 9 uppers what falls is snow

Add the arpege also!! Another conservative model. Snow across the South Coast

Arome definitely showing some light snow in places in the south Tuesday morning

If I used my head I would think they are under doing convection. Easterlys with 850s of less than -8 and dewpoints of -4 mean only one word!! Snow is a certainty, how much ppn is the only question for me. Remember dps from an Easterly or very different to marine air as you like to say....latest chart from ecm, slow to the party but now on track aswell

Not a word ,frankly because they're using their heads

The marine layer under those showers if they exist will quickly lift dew points and wet bulbs above zero

Yes all points are valid and I have been incorrect as much as anyone else!! Let's see what next runs show, icon already rolling

Of course,I hope I'm hideously incorrect too

But to counteract that marine layer you need a flow of decently cold surface air

Not 100's of km's of open warm water marine layer that penetrates at least a few hundred metres above that rather warm sea surface

PPN getting more defined!! It's game on

Also don’t ME work off harmonie for precipitation and there is nothing showing up on that yet.

Quite a bit of ppn showing on the control. Slight upgrades all day, if this continues its 2 or 3cm for the South

Just to post lying snow charts from a few of tonight's models. No consensus but plenty to give you hope...

May not necessarily be that light either? I'm not well versed in convection, but I don't think many if any models had prolonged spells of moderate precip. for Dublin tonight. And looking further east in the Irish sea, there's still good activity forming near Anglesey. Don't think conditions were massively in favour for anything more than 'light' tonight either. But we got a few green/yellow cores on the ME radar for the last few hours which have plenty of oomph to them.

Surely by late Monday/Tuesday early AM with much colder air moving over the relatively warm sea, we could see more enhanced convection and override a couple of the things going against us? Pressure similar enough, already nearly 1035 hPa tonight, can't really go much higher. Not familiar enough with any other major factors to go checking them and comparing tonight vs.the next 48 hours.

I remember the February 2021 failed easterly. To many of our untrained eyes we were expecting the goods...very cold airmass, brisk easterlies and low pressure/heights. But a couple of wise heads who knew what to check said nothing more than snizzle was supported, and that's what we got for several days straight in the end. Can't remember for the life of me what parameter crippled the whole thing.

I'm guessing what Reversal posted earlier means similarly our -10c at 850s level is more like -7c in reality due to the high pressure? Ergo still iffy enough especially those near the coast.

Black ice all over Cork this morning, loads of crashes, see www.corksafetyalerts.ie

Am I right in saying that the severity of Sunday's "storm" has diminished somewhat in the most recent model runs?

After a calmer day tomorrow, there is a risk of another named storm Storm Jocelyn on Tuesday into Wednesday AM. It tracks to the NW of Ireland, but could still bring Yellow Alert level gusts of 90kmh+ to the west. Drier again on Wednesday before more rain arrives Thursday.