FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Another thing to be wary of with that vortex is that it could push the high too far east or southeast, meaning the easterly doesn't reach us and leaving us stuck with mild southwesterlies if there isn't a sufficient undercut. I hope I'm wrong but as of now I suspect we're in for a very mild (maybe even notably so going on recent form) and dry February. The caveat is that the vortex has been exceptionally unpredictable this winter, so it could have a few surprises up its sleeve, otherwise I'd be more confident in what I said. That said, dry would definitely not be the worst thing in the world, it's shocking how saturated the ground is, even here in Dublin despite the previous two months being drier than average.

Wow it’s actually hard to believe ‘the previous two months being drier than average’. Mind you it was the wind that was more relentless than the rain.

I certainly hope you’re wrong about February being mild and dry, but going on recent February’s you could well be right. Even if February turns out to be milder than average, if we get 3-5 days of a proper easterly or N’easterly with snow showers I would be a very happy man.

Met Office further outlook is interesting of a possible easterly

There is 6-7 members of the 30 showing a Scandi for 14-16 days time. Just an observation. The last three weeks have taught me to say that 23 members do NOT show a Scandi!!

I have no doubt we will get the Scandi High when that deep cold is washed away in the next 2 to 3 weeks over there. It would be our luck. If we did get a a Scandi High i would love to see it connecting wih Russian/Siberia and drag in colder temps turning our emerald isle into narnia for two weeks.

Well it's normally the Azores high that keeps the cold away from us in winter, or failing that, a euro high, so at least the Iberian high seems like a slightly more exotic way to keep us mild 😜

In all seriousness though, fair play to you Gonzo for providing that explanation of exactly how we (bar these 3 days) avoided the cold in spite of the extended blocking.

Too often when these "preferred forecasts" don't materialise, posters get the hump and these threads go entirely dead abruptly. It would be much more interesting, for me at least, if those who put so much effort into interpreting FI charts put even a small amount into analysing how and why the models get it wrong, as you have done here.

That would be 1969 territory in terms of those uppers if it happened- which of course it won't. Even in a potent northerly it's rare to get uppers lower than -10.

a January 1986 chart, not unlike what we are seeing now towards Scandinavia, not predicting anything .. just sayin’

yes, no snowfall worth talking about, only light falls, an easterly month like 1947 and both followed very wet summers.

again …. just sayin’ ..

Interesting the concept of too much blocking in winter leading to wet summers. I’d take a mild winter any day of the week if it meant good summer weather.

No thanks. We're basically the geographical version of "we have summer/winter at home" as it is.