Storm Isha - Sunday 21/Monday 22 January 2024

Taking all models into account, I would think that an Orange Alert on Sunday into very early Monday and a Yellow Alert up to Monday afternoon is the territory we are in. Alert areas are as yet undefined. If the Arpege verifies or is even close to what it currently depicts, then we are in red territory from Sunday eve.

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very strong and gusty southwest winds.

Potential Impacts:

• Significant coastal waves

• Difficult travelling conditions

• Debris, loose objects displaced

Check back for updates to warnings.

Valid: 11:00 Sunday 21/01/2024 to 06:00 Monday 22/01/2024

Issued: 08:35 Friday 19/01/2024

Orange wind warning for Northern Ireland now

Carlow weather tweet about this:

Generally an Orange warning storm I'd say with winds 110kph to 130kph with an odd higher gust in the Atlantic so probably an Orange warning in many counties and Red over the sea will be what Met Eireann shows for Isha.

Icon an upgrade on this morning

GFS currently 15mb deeper at T48 compared to this morning.

GFS

I think it will downgrade, its very rare we get orange to red level gusts across the country. Though Some sort of storm is very likely as you say, the ECM tonight might give us a better idea of what we are in for

I'm just waiting for met eirrean to update the warnings ⚠️ they may not until tomorrow but still, Amber has been issued as yous know for northern Ireland, Wales and Northern parts of England and Southern Scotland

UK met office have Orange warnings from Lands End to the North of England Yellow for Scotland for Sunday

Siobhán Ryan on the 9 oclock weather saying the warning will be upgraded to Orange and that storm Isha will effect the entire country with damaging gusts of wind and thundery squally of rain.

It probably justifies a nationwide orange and leave it at that...its nothing unusual in my view. What's of note this Winter is a change of tack by Met Eireann!! Much slower to name storms, UK yet again named this one. Whether that's the right approach time will tell. I actually think in the media driven era we live in that it possibly is!

As always still time for upgrades

I think Met Eireann are right actually. We are all looking at the models on here I want it does look like it maybe a severe event. I don’t think there is any basis to say that anything is nailed down just yet either. I definitely think being conservative and seeing where things lately tomorrow afternoon, our early evening Would be enough.

Besides, that, there are warnings for everything these days. Days that, in my youth, would have been a bit of a windy day and now getting yellow warnings. Growing up when the storm was named, you knew it was serious. These days you get a bunch of names throughout the season.. I think they’re right to sit on the fence and something definite evolves. There really isn’t much pointing causing a catastrophe that the letter have to roll back on, or spend next week justifying when it didn’t occur.

The ICON very rarely verifies with wind though. Almost guaranteed to overcook things by 10-20% at least.

That said, going by model consensus generally, 100-120km/h gusts across a large swathe of the country are probable at this point so national orange would seem the most likely outcome with probably a marine red for the northwest / west.

For me, GFS looks a little unusual for Sunday on tonight’s run. I think it could be more impactful again on the next run.