Storm Isha - Sunday 21/Monday 22 January 2024

Carlow weather tweet about this:

Arpege has dialled back the intensity a lot - looks like a more fractured system, Icon too, UKMO a little less intense too, GFS a bit upgraded and it's and all day event for the entire West coast. Hopefully by tomorrow morning there is some consensus.

If the event lasts into late Sunday night as some models are showing, it creates problems for Monday morning - at this time of year the first people put in the dark at 7,8am are students, plus schools can't assess damage until 8am or so when students arrive. Busses run earlier in many country schools as they have longer distances and multiple runs to do.

Generally an Orange warning storm I'd say with winds 110kph to 130kph with an odd higher gust in the Atlantic so probably an Orange warning in many counties and Red over the sea will be what Met Eireann shows for Isha.

Icon an upgrade on this morning

GFS currently 15mb deeper at T48 compared to this morning.

GFS

Dangerous looking storm now. Intensified to 950 on latest guidance. Interesting to see will it hold a main center or split and elongate. This will determine windspeeds and areas most affected. As of now its the real deal with a countrywide storm. The only downgrade from now on will be the position and shape of the system.

GFS doesn't tend to overdo the winds though. Looking at the 12z runs GFS and ICON are looking somewhat similar now with orange to red level gusts across the country tomorrow evening but ICON is slower to clear off. ARPEGE also still looking strong for the W/SW but the strongest winds staying out to sea and the east escapes the brunt of it. GEM much less severe than the others except for one frame showing Waterford/Wexford getting a spell of red-level gusts. HARMONIE coming into range now too, only goes up to midday Sunday so far but for what it's worth it's not showing the same strength of winds that the others are showing around the same time.

There's still plenty of time for modification. We're 48 hours away from the strongest winds yet and we're still seeing flips in the models. I'd imagine we're locked in for some sort of storm but the severity and duration is still very much uncertain.

I think it will downgrade, its very rare we get orange to red level gusts across the country. Though Some sort of storm is very likely as you say, the ECM tonight might give us a better idea of what we are in for

Yeah the Met.ie shows red warning winds pushing inland

I'm just waiting for met eirrean to update the warnings ⚠️ they may not until tomorrow but still, Amber has been issued as yous know for northern Ireland, Wales and Northern parts of England and Southern Scotland

UK met office have Orange warnings from Lands End to the North of England Yellow for Scotland for Sunday

The entire country is firmly in an orange warning for a while if the ICON verified