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Storm Isha - Sunday 21/Monday 22 January 2024

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,217 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I'd say something like this is what will verify




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 954 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    It is going to be a rainmaker, which may turn out to be the bigger story for us weather-wise unless there is an upgrade in wind potential in the interim (still possible).


    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,241 ✭✭✭sdanseo




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,136 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Somewhere between the ARPEGE and WRF for now I reckon. Very strong winds, we could be getting winds gusting up to 100-110 km/h for about 6 or 7 hrs or so here in Kerry and possible to get gusts up to 120km/h inland a bit and higher again on coastal fringes maybe going by tonight's output.

    UKMO is coming more inline with the bunch, not as extreme but ICON is way out in front and a bit too far ahead of the pack for now.

    Could well be countrywide Orange level warning at different stages or most of the country. Looking at very powerful prolonged winds. ARPEGE showing mean speeds 65 to 70 or 75 Km/h at times inland, WRF showing mean speeds of 60 km/h for a number of hours and higher the nearer the coasts.










  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,767 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    That wind field looks huge, even here in Cork City we might get some high winds, not the usual NW/SW affair...?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,136 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just looking at the ECM and Meteologix's Swiss HD model which is using the ECM data I believe and showing some very strong winds overland Sunday evening/ night gusting 100 to 110 km/h inland and some 120 km/h gusts in there as well. I don't know how well this model scores on reliability but it looks very like the ECM model but in finer detail.





    HARMONIE Hi Res just out to 18.00




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,767 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Those projected 150 kph gusts would have to be taken seriously...



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,136 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Id say they are wind gust projections for the mountain tops in that area.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,767 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Ah right. I'll review my camping options then!! 😅



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,136 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Don't know when the new weather Warning thing is coming into effect but red level warnings are going up from 80km/h mean speeds to 85km/h it may not be alot but even if storms level out at say 83 or 84km/h it's still orange warning territory, I'm sure when I wake up tomorrow afternoon it's gonna be widespread orange warnings with maybe one or two spots getting red warnings ⚠️



  • Registered Users Posts: 9 DavyR33


    The stove is just starting to howl now, ominous sound with rain hitting the door. Dog seems uneasy. I'll be watching this thread and models with interest.

    Doesn't help having early lambs either. Could be a long weekend.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 936 ✭✭✭lumphammer2


    Well all I can see in many places is 60KM and the like .... that would be nasty unpleasant horrid weather but nothing that will end the world ... give me the cold any day ... there have been many named 'storms' that did not materialise ... remember Lorenzo back in 2019 .... nothing happened ... a precursor to the Covid scaremongering of just a few months later !!

    And the worst storm in recent times in Ireland was 24 December 1997 ... not even warned of up to the time it happened ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭Eibhir


    The saying goes it's hard to predict snow in Ireland.

    I think storms are nearly worse. Some storms with orange warnings in many counties have ended up with only 3 Met Stations reaching yellow level status.

    There was a storm beginning with 'B' in November 2016 that wasn't forecast to be bad in the south east. It was of short duration but packed a punch. Carlow Oak Park had a max gust of 126km, the very same max as Darwin in 2014.

    So I'm always wary of storms, with many you never really know how bad they'll be until the hit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 936 ✭✭✭lumphammer2


    Exactly ... no one can tell until something hits ... speculation and scaremongering make good coverage for the media and for any real or wannabe forecasters out there ... but storms, snow, pandemics, etc all never turn out as predicted ... Covid for example was a major event and many did die and a lot of restrictions were warranted ... not near to 12 months of level 5 lockdowns though ... but Covid fell short of the apocalypse some predicted! ...

    Christmas eve 1997, Stephen's day 1998, Darwin 12 February 2014 and Ophelia 16 October 2017 are the worst wind events that I recall ... some predicted some not ... Lorenzo, Eunice and other ones did not pan out as bad as the panic suggested .... others miss us like Ciaran was pretty bad where it hit but missed us ...

    The really really bad ones to hit a general area tend to be few and far between ... that said and done Ophelia from 2017 is the last on my list ... so we are unfortunately due one ... there were only 3 years between Ophelia and Darwin remember ... so far this one does not get officially reported as exceptional in my environs at least ...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 954 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The 18z output from the ECMWF model would suggest a near-nationwide Orange Alert for strong Winds, spot flooding and coastal flooding in Ireland that would likely be effective from mid afternoon on Sunday through to late Monday morning, downgrading thereafter for a short period to a Yellow Alert. The northwest would be in high Orange Alert territory and a brief Red Alert for this region could not be ruled out based on this output. Flooding in Atlantic coastal locations would be a concern due to High tide around 2am Monday coinciding with some of the strongest winds (westerly), not forgetting the added influence of a near Full Moon.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,987 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Today a day for battening down the hatches and putting away anything that could take off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 954 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    The ICON 0z run edges parts of Ireland into Red Alert territory. One caveat is that the model is known for over-egging wind potential, even at 36 hours out.


    Post edited by WolfeEire on

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 954 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (410ft asl)


    Atlantic coastal counties are at low Red Alert level for Sunday night in the 0z GFS with 10 minute wind speeds of 85kmh+ and wind gusts of 130kmh+. A nationwide Orange Alert will likely be introduced initially

    Note: Met Eireann's new criterion for red alerts is 10m wind speeds of 85+ and Wind gusts of 135+

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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  • Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    ECM looks a powerful storm. I think met eireann will update warnings now based on that. My guess is nationwide orange and West to northwest coastal counties red. The question for me that will define this storms strength is what shape the center will hold. Will it be large like the ECM, or will it have multiple low centers, or elongate. In all cases though, the kinks in those isobars during the squally rain deluges will definitely cause power outages and tree damage along with flooding. Not a storm to be travelling in, better to be over cautious with this one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Carol25


    I think met eireann should have flagged this before today. It’s very late notice. People don’t need a yellow warning. I know people going away for the weekend and they’ve no idea a storm is coming. Just a simple message to people that strong gale force winds overland are likely, and to secure loose items around the property. Why not even say that?



  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Yes I know someone planning to fly into Knock on Sunday evening, mentioned the storm but the forecasted winds on met.ie were probably half of what they will be, also there was no mention in the forecast, just possible gales along the coast, loads of people travel back to Galway, Sligo Limerick Dublin etc on Sunday nights to work/college. None of these people are aware they'll be travelling in 100km+ winds as Met.ie is telling them otherwise.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,521 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    People operating planes know what windspeeds are predicted. They aren't looking at a throw together app or basic forecast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    they are adults.. M.E. can't hold everyone's hand on their way home. Warnings are up, anyone travelling should be keeping an eye on any possible changes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭aisling86


    This just came up on my net weather app don’t know their criteria vs met eireann so will be interesting to see what they update to later on



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  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Lol he's not flying the aircraft, he's a passenger, if he knew there will likely be diversions, he'd have made other arrangements as he has work Monday morning. My point was met.ie was yesterday forecasting a light breeze for Knock when every model was showing 100km+ gusts. He made the decision to fly out based on their inaccurate wind forecast and zero mention of storm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Yep but if they have the right info they can make better plans. People in the UK have had the correct info since Friday. There is a yellow warning despite the criteria for orange being steadily forecast for Western counties for the last 3 days. Right now you wouldn't hesitate to make travel plans based on the info met.ie is giving.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    Hopefully they make a call soon, if it’s still bad coming into the morning Monday people need to know if schools will delay opening etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    I get ya. But how many times have they called a storm a few days out and it turns north and we're all wondering what the fuss is about. The media make a song and dance anytime a warning goes up so I don't buy the "we didn't know" argument



  • Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭cheezums


    Looks like a clear orange for most counties and a red for the west to me.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    I don’t blame ME for not jumping the gun too quickly. It’s always a case damned if you do and damned if you don’t.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,025 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Yes your spot on, the media are already all over this even though its a yellow. The argument of I didn't know was more relevant pre Internet not today. This storm is nothing exceptional apart from maybe far Northwest! It's a nationwide orange and will be upgraded during the day. Schools won't close both because it's not a red and more importantly its happening on a Sunday night when society in general are not out



  • Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭shmaupel


    Apologies if this is a thick question, but in regard to flying, how do they make a decision, is there an actual defined cut off point for wind speed for take off, landing etc? Heading from Donegal to Dublin for 5pm flight tomorrow... hopefully :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,227 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Dublin, Kilkenny, Longford, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Cavan, Monaghan, Munster, Connacht

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Very strong southwest winds with severe and damaging gusts.

    • Impacts:

    • • Large coastal waves with wave overtopping
    • • Very difficult travelling conditions
    • • Fallen trees
    • • Damage to power lines
    • Valid: 17:00 Sunday 21/01/2024 to 02:00 Monday 22/01/2024
    • Issued: 09:01 Saturday 20/01/2024




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Still yellow for off shore…. That’ll probably go red?



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,235 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Updating I would say at the moment.

    Separate Orange warning now added for Donegal (longer time).

    Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal

    • Met Éireann Weather Warning
    • Very strong southwest to west winds with severe and damaging gusts.

    • Impacts:
    • • Large coastal waves with wave overtopping
    • • Very difficult travelling conditions
    • • Fallen trees
    • • Damage to power lines
    • Valid: 17:00 Sunday 21/01/2024 to 05:00 Monday 22/01/2024
    • Issued: 09:04 Saturday 20/01/2024




  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭ascophyllum


    It will be interesting what happens with schools - with trees down, possible damage to buildings etc. Is it wise to mobilise hundreds of thousands of children in the dark Monday morning?

    For 90% it would be totally fine, but there will be areas in the Northwest where they leave very early for school long before dawn. It's hard to assess school buildings before students arrive at 8am, every single secondary school in a 50km radius here has prefabricated buildings that according my children, move and creak during heavy winds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 95 ✭✭mayflyatr


    Depends on a number of factors, mainly wind speed and wind direction relative to the runway direction. Taking both of these into account is the x-wind or crosswind component. All aircraft types have x-wind limits for various runway contaminants, in this case dry or wet runways.

    The aircraft you will be flying on tomorrow is an ATR72.

    They will make a decision based on the airfield forecast, also known as a TAF. If conditions are forecast out of limits at the airport in question, the operator will likely choose to cancel the flight. If conditions are marginal, the operator will monitor 30min weather reports or metars. A final decision will be made to either dispatch, delay or cancel the flight.



  • Registered Users Posts: 144 ✭✭King of Spades


    So according to Met Eireann, Storm Isha is going to take a little rest as it heads across Meath and Westmeath before unleashing its full fury on Dublin and Louth. Maybe the residents of Drogheda and Balbriggan might like to go to Bettystown for a break tomorrow if it all gets too much.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,762 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Ah lads and lassies, do we have to do Met Eireann bashing EVERY SINGLE TIME. Before, during and after ad nauseum. Yeah yeah they should have been warning us yesterday about a storm on Sunday when the roads were lethal with ice yesterday. Just to get ahead of it like. Nothing worse than over-communication. Let's not try and pamper the entire soft Irish population every single time. I'll be eating my Sunday dinner today just so I don't starve tomorrow. When I am perfect at my job, I'll start bashing.

    Or we can just enjoy the weather event?

    Post edited by Cluedo Monopoly on

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,637 ✭✭✭weisses


    ECM model not to severe for the southwest 115kph



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,148 ✭✭✭mr_edge_to_you


    Based in Meath myself. I'd like to think I am able apply common sense and personal responsibility when it comes to such things but the idea that Meath and Westmeath are going to bypassed by the storm only serve to undermine the credibility of the weather warnings in my opinion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,940 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    I'm not usually in the business of bashing them but the point comes up again and again. The UK Met Office were flagging this storm a few days ago with YouTube videos etc. It was a measured message just to let people know of a potential storm. Meanwhile other than the tv forecasts all Met Eireann have is their website/app, and until yesterday evening there was nothing about it and the hourly forecast showed max gusts of around 70 for my area where most models were showing close to 100. They need to be more proactive when it comes to this stuff.

    Anyway on topic some of the 06z runs are out but not much change. GFS showing a quicker clearance and a slight downgrade for the West particularly later in the evening but as you were for most other places. ICON and UKMO still way out in front and probably not likely to verify.

    HARMONIE which doesn't cover the west coast is one of the short range hi res models and is showing the core of the winds crossing the country between 5 and 9 and much improved by midnight.

    AROME is coming into range now so the next couple of runs will have that output.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,908 ✭✭✭pureza


    Regarding the UKMO youtube videos,their main audience on them is probably similar to gav's weather videos ie weather nerds like ourselves

    I wouldn't criticise Glasnevin for not doing those



  • Registered Users Posts: 395 ✭✭barneyrub



    Thanks

    Post edited by barneyrub on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,718 ✭✭✭Gusser09


    Would we call this a storm? Or is it just a spell of bad weather?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 741 ✭✭✭Timfy


    Entirely depends on whether you are personally mildly inconvenienced or if a tree falls on your local school I suppose...


    Warnings are generalised and not tailored to individual cases.

    No trees were harmed in the posting of this message, however a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,172 ✭✭✭wanderer 22




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,940 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    AROME not really going for much at all which I'm surprised at. It trends to be one of the more accurate ones but it and ARPEGE are definitely less impactful than the others





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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,521 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    It's a plausible scenario created by subtleties of wind direction and geography.



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