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"average Dublin house prices should fall to ‘the €300,000 mark" according to Many Lou McD.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    County councils of all parties have been serial objectors to local developments:

    https://extra.ie/2019/12/09/property/objection-housing-development-taoiseach

    etc

    We had €1.52bn unspent last year in the national Department of Housing's last budget. Is that also a disgrace? Do you hold FG and FF responsible for that?

    DCC's underspend is also a problem obviously. But that amount still wouldn't have come anywhere near letting them build the thousands of social homes per year that it was suggested is in their capability. Which in reality would require far more national policy assisstance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    We're one of the richest countries on the planet, with no nearby military threats, and a temperate climate that will be relatively stable for the next hundred years. Hundreds of millions of people will obviously want to move here from places like Nigeria, Afghanistan and Somalia, that doesn't mean we're a well run country.

    Compare us to our actual peer group - places like Denmark or Austria - and we do much worse on many metrics. Metrics that could and should be easily fixed with better, smarter, government policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,969 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You really don't have a clue, do you?

    The government don't build houses, local authorities do. The government provide money to local authorities to build housing, decent well-run councils build houses, ones run by Sinn Fein and a mish-mash of lefties sit on their arses and do nothing for five years. There is money unspent in the Department of Housing because councils were unable to spend it.

    As for the blocking of housing, some parties (SF) are far worse than others in blocking houses, but only one party (again SF) used their time in control of a local authority to block everything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,969 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Denmark and Austria are not our peer group. Our peer group is Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal. Those are the countries we were behind in the 1970s, but we are now far ahead of.

    In relation to Denmark and Austria, we were very far behind them in the 1970s, now we are nearly level.

    Your comparison wipes out 50 years of progress in this country, a convenient excuse for your negative attitude.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    The national government releases funds to local authorities to build houses. Local authorities quite literally aren't able to directly raise the billions of euros required to build the "thousands of houses per year" from local taxes. The policy has to be set, and funded, at national level. As discussed in this very thread on the past few pages, with the exact maths given to explain why this is so.

    Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal have very little economic resemblance to Ireland in the year 2024. Spain and Italy are over ten times our size. Greece and Portugal are much poorer than us, with completely different economic structures to us.

    Denmark and Austria are similar sized EU countries to Ireland, with similar levels of wealth, and a similar economic structure. We should be in or around their peformance on key metrics like housing, healthcare and general quality of life. But we aren't, we're doing much worse. And the only reason for that is down to Irish govermental failures.

    What level we were at over 50 years ago is completely irrelevant to holding our current government to account. Leo Varadkar was born in 1979, how much impact did have as a political leader in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s?

    Ireland is currently suffering from literally the worst housing crisis in the history of the state. Our healthcare, education, and police services are crumbling because they aren't well funded enough. Homelessness is at an all time high. Quality of life is getting worse year to year for most people in the state. And this is all happening at a time when we're running a multi-billion euro surplus per year. The current dire state of affairs is entirely down to current bad government policy since they were elected in 2020.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,990 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I totally agree with all your points on immigration.

    But it is wrong to say: There quite literally aren't enough houses for people. 

    This is demonstrably untrue. Yes, it is correct to say that there are not enough houses currently available to rent or buy for people - but that's very different to saying "There quite literally aren't enough houses for people."

    Sorry to keep hammering home this point, but the sooner the distinction is more widely understood and discussed, the sooner the current housing issues can be solved.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    @hometruths wrote: This is demonstrably untrue. Yes, it is correct to say that there are not enough houses currently available to rent or buy for people - but that's very different to saying "There quite literally aren't enough houses for people."

    You think we have enough houses and flats for people?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,990 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Yes, based on population size, habitable housing stock and avg household size, the numbers indicate we currently have sufficient existing stock.

    Or at the very least the data does not suggest a shortage of crisis proportions.

    If you disagree, and you think we don't currently enough, are you able to say by how many you think we are currently short?



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,969 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Nonsensical rubbish. You can't consider the present without acknowledging the past. Countries like Denmark, Austria, Sweden etc. have centuries upon centuries of wealth built up to draw on - they had empires. We have come a long way, and when you do that, your infrastructure struggles to keep up.

    Ireland is not suffering from literally the worst housing crisis in the history of the state - that is overblown hyperbolic hysteria. Things were far worse in the 1930s and 1940s when people lived in slum housing and shacks.

    The quality of life for people in this country is getting better every year. More holidays, more nights out, more new cars, more consumption, better education, longer lifespans, by every single measure, life is getting better. Never let the truth get in the way of one of your moans.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    We are fairly low by European standards however. See chart below:


    Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/867687/total-number-dwellings-per-one-thousand-citizens-europe/

    On this chart, only Poloand and Greece in the EU are lower though there may be others not included. But I take your point that better utilization could made of existing housing stock though the benefit, unfortunately, would only be temporary.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,990 ✭✭✭hometruths


    That's a relative measure. Sure we might be lower compared to other European countries, but having 415 houses per 1000 people does not indicate crisis levels of shortage of housing stock. Far from it.

    That's my point - it's very easy to find headlines telling you that the current housing problem is simply caused by a current shortage of built housing stock, but look a bit deeper and you'll struggle to find any data to back that idea up.

    It might seem like a pedantic and irrelevant point, given the lack of stock on the market, but as long as the bulk of people believe that we have a crisis shortage of existing housing stock, we'll never be able to consider potential solutions to more efficiently utilize the existing stock.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,496 ✭✭✭✭Geuze



    "Healthcare is not funded enough"

    !!!!!

    We overspend on healthcare, relative to the age profile of our population.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    We have more demand for houses than we have houses available. Thats evident from the sky high rental and purchase prices, the very low numbers of properties on either market, the huge numbers on social housing lists, and the very high numbers of homeless people. Thats the core of the issue, which does mean there quite literally aren't enough houses for people.

    In an ideal world where every house is utilised to the maximum of its potential, where there are zero vacant homes, zero holiday homes, zero airbnbs etc this mightn't be the case. But thats not the case in the real world.



  • Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    It is a contributing factor though. Relatively low housing units per capita mean that there's a smaller pool from which houses will be put on the market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,038 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Denmark or Austria are not using "centuries of wealth" to pay for current government spending. Spending to build housing, or pay police, or pay nurses comes from current government revenue. Which Ireland currently has more of per capita than almost any country on Earth, both on a total and surplus per capita basis. But our current government has decided to not spend this money, which is purely ideological. And the results can be seen all around us.

    If you think the quality of life for people in this country is getting better every year then you've clearly missed every poll, or statistic, on life in Ireland in recent years. People are drinking less, schools can't get staff, hospital waiting lists are through the roof, and home ownership is at its lowest point in decades. Those are all verifiable, hard, statistics. Opinion polls also completely back this up, as would any common sense - nobody with any contact with the health service, with gardai, with teachers, would tell you they're doing well currently.

    By hey, don't take my word for it. Why do you think SF are currently polling as the #1 party by a large margin even with ABC1 voters? The richest, most educated, well to do voters in the state? Do you think its because they've all become Republican Socialists, or is it perhaps bcause current government policy is very obviously failing?

    The starting wage for a nurse in Dublin in 2024 is €33k per year. Do you think thats a reasonable starting wage for someone with a college education, working a difficult, essential job?

    Do you not think if we perhaps paid them more it would 1) ease our current recruitment/retention crisis, helping everyone in the state and 2) just be morally the right thing to do?

    That aside, our overall healthcare spending isn't remotely excessive. We're in the middle of the OECD pack, very much inline with our wealthy peers:


    Post edited by Blut2 on


  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,990 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Sure, but it's still only relatively low. Not crisis low. There are many other reasons making more of a contribution to the lack of turnover of existing stock.

    In any event it doesn't answer the question - we know what the current population is, we know what the current habitable housing stock is, we know what the average household size is so how come we don't know how many houses we are currently short of in the housing stock?

    Our current population is 5,149,139. How many houses do we need to accommodate that population?

    No shortage of people who will tell you we need to build 30/40/50/60k houses a year every year for decades or else we will never be able to accommodate our entire population.

    But how come there is nobody who can tell you how what the current deficit in our housing stock is based on our current population?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,990 ✭✭✭hometruths


    On the relativity of the number of houses per 1000 people stat, it's interesting to compare the current figure of 415 relative to previous figures in Ireland.

    Source: https://www.finfacts-blog.com/2021/02/key-irish-housing-statistics-1971-2020.html

    Yes it was higher in 2011, but the apparent crisis at the time was one of oversupply, not a shortage.

    It was much the same in 2006. High prices for sure, but plenty of houses to buy and rent on the market.

    It was significantly lower in 2002 and 1996, but again there was plenty of stock on the market to buy and rent at that time.

    Yes, household sizes were higher in 2002 and 1996, but the current issue is lack of turnover. That's nothing to do with household size.

    And yes a lower number of houses per capita will obviously mean a smaller pool of houses from which to draw available stock to buy and rent, but it is not a significant contributing factor.



  • Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    The housing crisis is a hydra of problems essentially built on the back of mass migration.

    To point out just two examples, consider these queues to buy homes. Buy, not rent.

    Meanwhile on the other end of the scale regarding social housing, consider some of these numbers.


    Squeezed from the top by wealthy migrants, squeezed from the bottom with social housing. A vice grips. A net negative for the majority of Ireland, no matter how you cut it.

    And that's just individuals. It doesn't include mass purchase of housing by foreign interests investing in the maintanence and prolonging of the crisis, it doesn't include refugee crises, and much more besides.


    Again, there is simply no way that the housing crisis can be solved without addressing the free for all that is mass migration. And addressing it means a severe and rapid reduction, not lip service.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,334 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    100% agree. And the last time I remember queues like that for people to buy housing was back in the celtic tiger days, and those days did not end too well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 35,003 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    That's a very myopic way of looking at the problem. The bottom line causing the whole issue is a lack of supply. Not migration. Migration is exacerbating an already existing problem. Most of Ireland is uninhabited, there's just a lack of supply of homes. The lack of supply has been caused by a lack of building of new homes since the collapse and we are now playing catch up.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    It'd the opposite of myopic, it's eyes wide open.

    There has been an unprecedented increase in the population of Ireland from abroad. That's a fact.

    The housing crisis has moved in severity with that increase, year upon year. No coincidence.

    It has reached such zenith that the government are playing a Mr bean with tartare sauce across the country, playing hide the refugee. And that's just refugees.


    You don't invite 20 people to your house and then after the fact complain that you live in a 3 bedroom house. The fault was the invitation, the existential problem is the arrival of those extra people. It never had anything to do with the size of your home which was in the first place ordinarily adequate.


    The housing crisis is built on the back of mass migration and there isn't a single thing in the world that can fix the crisis without tackling that cause.



  • Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    Just to point out from that Mr bean clip, the gag is that he's hiding the meat in every nook and cranny instead of just saying no thanks.

    The icing on the analogy is that after all his extreme efforts, he's presented with yet another plate of tartare.

    Sisyphean.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,496 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    If there is a recruitment crisis in the HSE, how come the headcount of nurses has risen sharply?

    The HSE had added 8,000 nurses in four years.





  • Registered Users Posts: 27,969 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The issue, if there is one, is the cap on nursing education places, because the HSE has been reluctant to increase the number of placements they offer, while the regulatory body has continued to insist on training taking place in hospitals, when the vast majority of new nurses are being recruited to community positions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,500 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Have new services been rolled out by the HSE? Has the birth rate increased? all those pesky new babies need midwives and nurses in the hospital and and community and public health nurses in the community.



  • Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    Totally unsuspicious rise in hospital trolley situation at the exact same time as unprecedented population increase from abroad.


    Luckily, having established a dependency on migrant labour, passionately pursued over many years, we can now say that years later the healthcare system is better than ever!

    All new records, it's great.

    Just so, capacity crises built on mass migration will never be solved without stopping mass migration, including housing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz


    Even scooby and the gang knows what's up



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,496 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    The number of births has fallen.

    From the CSO:

    • The number of births registered continues to fall, down over a fifth in the ten years since 2012.

    Commenting on the Yearly Summary report, Seán O’Connor, Statistician in the Vital Statistics Division, said: “There were 57,540 births registered in 2022, some 903 (or 1.5%) less than 2021 and a fall of 20% since 2012. This represented an annual birth rate of 11.3 per 1,000 of population compared to 15.7 per 1,000 population in 2012. 


    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vsys/vitalstatisticsyearlysummary2022/



  • Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭abozzz



    Bullshite: "we need to prevent demographic collapse by using mass migration!"

    Realshite: the capacity crises caused by mass migration like housing, healthcare and childcare, are causing demographic collapse.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,500 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    It's not the thread maybe, but health care is not a zero-sum game, there are new screening and monitoring or new evidence-based ways of doing things rolled out all the time they need to be staffed our population is aging, nurses or health care staff are not the enemy, we are a well of European welfare state and that costs money to run.



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