Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I saw some reports on Twitter that Zenit (a heavily fortified Air Defense position to the south west of Avdiivka) had been taken by the Russian army which, if true, would be a major problem for the Ukrainians as it's a heavily fortitified position and has the high elevation over the area and is considered a lynchpin of this front but I'm also seeing counter-claims that while they've made advances in the area, the fortification is still in Ukrainian hands.

Hard to tell the truth of it but based on everything we've seen to date from both sides, one would have to assume Ukrainian command will pull back their forces and abandon Avdiivka for more defensible positions when necessary.

On saying that, it does make me wonder that Ukraine haven't yet pulled a mass retreat in some part of the front to suck Russian troops into an encirclement. From what we've seen the Russians logistics and command have been terrible and their troops are under intense pressure to take territory so it'd seem to me that they'd be ripe for being lured into a headlong rush for "abandoned" territory which Ukraine had artillery pre-targetted on (or otherwise booby trapped) as their logistics would surely fail to keep up with a fast advance at this point?

Little more details there with a delivery date.

The link you supplied even mentions it's to replenish NATO stocks.

Yes, Ukraine is badly damaged, but so was Japan, Germany and all the other country's involved in the ww2. Look at what happened to these Countries after wards? Same thing will happen with Ukraine. Putin didn't want Ukraine simply to enlarge his empire, apparently there's incredible wealth both offshore and inland, and that's not including Agriculture. Sure Russia is large, but like the large farm in the area, with a bad Farmer managing it, it will go to rack and ruin. And that in a nutshell is what has happened in Russia under Putin. Once the oil and gas cash ws rolling in, that was all that mattered. Little or no investment outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg,except for vanityh projects like the crimea bridge, while the rest of Russia was falling apart. Look at the crazy situation even in Moscow now, with up to -30c temp, and the heating systems breaking down all over the place? Worse, most of the maintenance crews have been conscripted and by now a lot of them a dead or disabled.

No, Putin could have made Russia one of the biggest economic powerhouses in the world, but the criminal side of him won out.

The problem is with some like a mass withdrawal to try suck the Russians in could massive backfire considering that only lately the Ukrainians have started to prepare multiple lines of defence they could seriously cause a break in there own lines , munitions running low it would be a huge gamble with very little to gain but plenty to loose

Yes, that was the peacetime attitude, but that has all been changed by Putin and his invasion of a Country right on the borders of the EU. I can see a renewal of calls for a full-scale EU army now, and it will get a lot of support this time round.

The problem is, if Ukraine falls the geopolitical ramifications will be huge. The likelihood of Europe getting drawn in to a full blown war is huge, The US won't really care as there is no threat to them and the EU is becoming an economic rival so having that pushed back 20yrs won't bother them too much. They'll support us much like they are doing Ukraine.

Russia will be emboldened and try to expand, every man and their dog will become a Russian Nationalist, happy to expand the motherland after their glorious victory. Taiwan will be come an appetizer for China while they eye up Korea, Japan and the rest of South East Asia.

If the EU and US don't put the shoulder to the wheel in the next 6months and truly give Ukraine what's needed to finish the invasion off then we're heading down the slippery slope of WW3.

India or Pakistan might sell them the tech though.

@threeball

Russia has a population of around 140,000,000 (-350,000?). NATO countries have a combined population of almost one billion. Even assuming that NATO falls apart, the EU has common defence policies in place, and the population of the EU is 448 million.

The point is that Russia ain't that big if it wants to start trying to throw its weight around some more. Sure, it's big geographically, but most of Russia is wilderness and arctic wasteland. When you're talking about the livable parts, it's much, much smaller.

In order for Russia to launch any other attacks on countries, they would first have to totally rebuild their military and then wait for a point that the alliances protecting their intended targets fall apart, which is not a guarantee.

Frankly, I'm surprised that Russia bothered with any military action at all. Their undermining of Western solidarity with online trolling was going pretty well for them, and it was, ironically, Russia trying to land a real physical blow that didn't bring the edifice down, but instead galvanised it. Putin could have brought the whole thing down without ever raising a finger if he'd been patient, but I suppose he wanted to sit in the shade of the tree he planted.

I am not saying they can’t acquire them, what I am saying is they won’t be getting help from the US or Europe to do so.

and I imagine any supposed intentions of joining the EU or NATO will stipulate they don’t have them.

Maybe/maybe not

I dont think Ukraine will care too much one way or another, I think they will do whatever they feel is necessary to ensure they're never attacked like this again.

That really does sound exhorbitant for a dumb shell. Is it down to the cost of brass for the casings? The munitions within? Or is it labour/machinging costs?

If Russia had any sense they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine but its obvious that they don't. Hoping they don't go a step further after a victory in Ukraine is wishful thinking at best. Regardless of population, I doubt any western nation savours the idea of even one missile landing in their city or town. They may be a shambles but they have the capacity to inflict serious damage where its absolutely unnecessary to absorb any just by giving Ukraine enough to get the job done.

Between people in occupied Russian territory and that fled abroad, Ukraine has lost about 35% of its pre war population. That's an existential issue for them.

Of course they are going to be short of labour and conscripts when that is the extent.

Russia is going to expect losses, sinking a few black fleet ships or the entire fleet with thousands dead, shooting down AWACS and such are not going to change the game on the ground In Ukraine, welcome as they would be and they are good days for Ukraine, a good start.

It will be killing as many of the Russian forces there as possible, minimum 6 figures on top of the already dead and then some and enduring, on top of what you suggest. It is not one or the other.

That's it, what other choice do they have, it's not neaderthal. It's up to date. It's the reality of war, it's kill or be killed.

If by some miracle the West decided to give Ukraine so many missiles that every Russian base in Ukraine can be hit, every staging area and supply depot inside of Russia, that will really speed things up. It won't happen though and it would still vast amounts of dead.