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Why I will not contribute to a pension (yet). THREAD BANS IN FIRST POST

  • 24-01-2024 12:46pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭


    I think pension fund managers are mistaken in their belief that government bonds are a good buy.

    It is my belief that inflation will stay higher for longer and may even increase further in the medium to long term (that is assuming it doesn't increase in the short term as well).

    So, the rather pathetic rates being offered (and that have been offered) on bonds sold by the government will result in losses to the pension funds in my opinion.

    A little time should suffice to prove me right or wrong. Meanwhile, I won't contribute to a pension. I will watch and wait.


    THREAD BANS:

    @Hawkeye123

    Post edited by Jim2007 on


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,322 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    You can choose not to have your pension invested in government bonds.

    The real benefit to pensions is the tax free contributions and withdrawal, which is much better than any other investment opportunity now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Yes but at the end of the day, payment will be in fiat currency. If a cbdc is introduced, it will potentially not even be that. Also, if Michael Burry is right, stocks are a big no no too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 242 ✭✭berocca2016


    You’re talking about relative value losses rather than absolute capital losses which are two completely different things.

    if the CBDC is equivalent to the Euro, how will this cause an issue to pension funds ?



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 15,773 Mod ✭✭✭✭smacl


    This. Also the earlier you start, the better the final result. Even after taxes, money in the bank is depreciating relative to inflation, so a pension fund is a great asset if you're willing to wait long enough to see the return.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,738 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Surely putting anything into a pension, making sure that pension is in really really low risk funds (if in any funds at all) is benefical purely for the taxation element of it? Easy money no?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,155 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Once you have low risk but enough risk to "ensure" you cover inflation, and enough investment to cover your expenses on retirement, yes.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    A couple of things to keep in mind, when it comes to the research:

    • Over the long run portfolio construction and asset allocation with be the major factor in determining the return on a portfolio
    • Portfolios that have a predominant equity asset allocation still benefit from have a low asset allocations in bonds, property etc.
    • Time spent in the market impacts the long term return
    • Market timing is a fools game
    • You are ignoring the tax breaks
    • Are you leaving free money on the table?

    When it comes to talking heads like Michael Burry, you'd do well to just ignore them. They are in the hedge fund sector and their public utterances are very rarely done to do anything other than talk up or down whatever strategy they are trying to execute in the market. It certainly is not to make you rich.

    You are basically intend on following the failed strategy of market timing and the thing is you will not know for decades if your approach will fail or not. Pension fund managers are playing the long game, which is exactly what they should be doing, but at the end of the day it is your money and in my experience it's a fools errant to waste time trying to convince a client to doing anything other than that which they are hell bent on doing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,322 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    There are two "if"s in your comment and no data to back either.

    I know where I want to put my pension money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Yes I did say "IF Michael Burry is right .... " The alternative of course being IF he is wrong, so you have a few IFs of your own.

    Come to think of it, the same can be said of the possible introduction of a CBDC, so data or no data, you are matching me If for If.



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Yes relative losses are different to capital losses. What matters to me is what I can buy with what I get, the figure is of no consequence whatsoever.

    The trouble with CBDCs is the government has total control. What if we have a bad government?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,624 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Well, you're putting fiat currency in; makes sense that you will get fiat currency out.

    But you don't have to invest in fiat currency. Currency is just the medium of exchange by which you put value into the pension fund, and by which, in due course, you will take value out. While your money is in the pension fund, you don't have to invest in currency; you can invest it in any asset class you like, so long as that's an investment which a pension fund is permitted to make. If the currency depreciates in the meantime, that's not a problem, because your investment will hold its value.

    You don't like government bonds as an asset class and, it seems, you don't like equities. But the important question is not what you don't like; it's what you do like. What investments do you want to make?

    If the answer is, you don't want to make any investments at all, then obviously the question of whether to use a pension fund or not doesn't arise.

    If the answer is, you want to invest in something that an Irish pension fund cannot invest in — e.g. you want to invest in a drug smuggling enterprise; you want to invest by lending all the money to the company that employs you/that you own — or you want to invest in something so off-the-wall that no pension fund is willing to accommodate you, then that would be a good reason for not making your investment through a pension fund.

    But, other than that, if you want to invest money, and you are unbothered by the restrictions associated with pension funds (mainly, on when you can get your investment out) then you would need some good reason for not using a pension fund, given the tax advantages involved.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on


  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    Yes but then there is the trust issue. I once made an investment via a pillar bank and was told the principle was 100% guaranteed but later found out they lied to me about that.

    If I say I want to invest in commodities, how can I trust them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,624 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Short of having the gold/wheat/frozen concentrated orange juice delivered to your house so you can hide it under your own bed, if you want to invest in commodities (or, indeed, almost anything else) you're going to have to trust someone, and probably multiple people. Investment markets operate on trust and credit; if you don't have confidence in that, investment is not for you. Maybe you should just buy land with your money? But you'll still have to trust the land registry.

    I think you have to start making some judgments about risk. All investment involves risk, obviously, and among those risks is the risk of dishonesty. Dishonesty is shocking but, in the scale of things, this is a minor risk compared to others that investors face. Some amount of money has been lost by investors who have been victims of dishonesty, but it's roundings of a fraction of a percent compared to the amount of money that investors have lost through adverse asset value movements. It's not entirely rational to be willing to face the greater risk but to baulk at the lesser risk.

    That's not to say that you just ignore the risk of dishonesty. You can minimise it by, e.g., investing through regulated markets and using investment mechanisms that are backed by guarantee schemes. Of course, not all investments can be made this way, in which case you may have to weigh up making your first-choice investment using unregulated intermediaries of uncertain reputation, or making your second-choice investment in a more regulated environment. Only you can make that trade-off for yourself.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Crypto is a kind of a funny religion, even by the standards of say BREXIT or MEGA:

    • They advocate for a digital currency because it can be controlled by the governments
    • They are concerned that governments could actually control the currency at the same time
    • They confuse speculating in a currency with investing in the underlying technology
    • They believe the currency is easily convertible despite the fact you can't by as much as a box matches the the kiosk with it
    • They see it's automation as a benefit, while ignoring the fact it facilities runs on the currency at a rate no one has seen before
    • They ignore what economic history has though us over the last couple of centuries in arguing for an unregulated currency as if it was never done before
    • And of course you must believe, if you do it makes sense

    This might come as a shock to you, but we fully expect that there will be corruption and abuse in politics and government. That is why our constitution adheres to the tradition of the separation of powers and goes one step further than most other western democracies by making parliament subject to the people. And the assumption of corruption runs through the monetary policies of most of the western world as well, it why we require central banks to be independent of the government to try and minimise the possibility of a government being able to manipulate a currency.

    Your fears are just not grounded in reality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,674 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    If you have many years to retirement, you should not be holding any bonds in the pension plan.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    They did not lie to you, you did not understand the product you were investing in and that is entirely on you. There are plenty of guaranteed principle products out there and just as many articles explain the pearls of investing in such products - do you not read some of these???

    I very much doubt that there are more than a handful of people on here that I would advise to invest in commodities for two reasons their portfolios are below 5 million Euro so would not benefit from taking on such risk and because they don't know remotely enough about how that market works.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,384 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko




  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Check out askaboutmoey.com, there were several discussions on these products over there, although for some reason I have never seen a discussion on here. And as Bill Clinton would say: it depends on what you mean by guarantee, principle and return... I don't remember all the ins and outs of these products, but I think when you brush back all the legal mumbo jumbo, what is guaranteed is you get back an amount equivalent to what you put in most cases and the product is structured so that principle + return should alway at least equal the amount invested. And that is pretty much what people got back after a five year period! But I'm open to correction on this as it is a very long time ago since I looked at it and even then I was not very concerned about it as I could not sell such a product over here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    But what if the regulated market is highly risky? Remember the Financial Regulator? It didn`t regulate and the IMF had to bail the country out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    I agree with everything you say about cryptos. That is a not something I would speculate on.

    Any separation of powers in this country is subverted by conflicts of interests. The politicians and judges have pay grades which are linked. This is why politicians say the judges are doing a wonderful job. When the judge gets a pay rise, the politician`s pay rise won`t be far behind. I don`t think judges are doing a particularly good job and a lot of people think they are a corrupt cabal, out only to protect the system, look after their buddies in politics and line their own pockets. Corruption being the guarantor of success in our system. I don`t necessarily agree with that but neither am I in any position to refute it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    And bonds have always been considdered a safer option in pension plans for those about to retire. My point being, that safety is now questionable if long term inflation is higher than the interest being paid on the bonds. And, if the situation becomes critical, can young contributors be sure their pension contributions are not being used to pay for mistakes previously made by the pension funds?



  • Registered Users Posts: 117 ✭✭Danny Drier


    You sound like a conspiracy nut tbh and there’s no talking to you. Enjoy an impoverished old age shouting at the clouds and blaming the seagulls for your predicament



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    I don`t recall you being in the room when they lied to me.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,322 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    There's no investment without risk, and that risk includes market volatility, corruption, government interference etc etc etc. which you seem to be very worried about.


    But historically the market has performed well in spite of this. Unless you have some evidence to support your beliefs I would be inclined to ignore them and focus on what can be proven using historical data.

    As you said, you believe pensions will underperform. Maybe, but the tax benefits will likely outweigh that underperformance significantly.

    At the end of the day its your money, feel free to do whatever you want with it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 333 ✭✭Hawkeye123


    I think it would be wise to wait for an economic reset, such a major recession before investing in a pension. At least that way, any bad investments the pension funds have made will come to fruition and they will then be better placed to make wiser decisions in future.



  • Registered Users Posts: 779 ✭✭✭greyday


    You are happy to lose out on 40% free money while you wait to try and time the market?

    Is there anyone sensible you could talk to?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,143 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    It's your loss but I'd suggest you talk to somebody who actually understands investments and pensions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,624 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    If regulated markets are highly risky, unregulated markets will be riskier still. If you have no appetite for risk, don't invest.

    I think there's a category error here. "Pensions" aren't class of investment on their own. They're a way of making investments in the same assets that you could invest in outside a pension, but with particular tax treatment and particular restrictions on access.

    If you think it would "be wise to wait for an economic reset, such as a major recession, before investing" then that judgement would hold equally for investments made via pension funds, and investments not made via pension funds. In short, if that's your view, it would be wise to wait before making any investment at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,102 ✭✭✭Trigger Happy


    OP - maybe pensions are not for you if you have major trust issues.

    Or maybe do some proper research and get a meaningful understanding of what you are investing in next time and how they work? Having your pension invested in government bonds is really stupid unless you are very close to retirement or have knowledge of a pending global economic catastrophe.



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,395 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    That is not the case. As I have already said, the majority of your return over the long haul will depend on portfolio construction and asset allocation. And the research is there to show the portfolios that are strongly skewed towards equities still perform better when they a certain amount allocated to other asset classes. And in a way this should not be surprising since there will always be times when a given asset class will be out of favour.



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