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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2023/2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Yeah windy to v windy along coasts, windy overland for a time but looks like remaining in Yellow warning for parts of the country especially the W and NW need to keep an eye on the NW, possibly close to Orange level for a time, v wet too with possibly 20 to 25mm in parts of the W and NW.
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Some rain overnight and clear spells tomorrow before a windy/ blustery front crosses the country from Thurs evening into Fri morning pulling in cold air after it. The 528dam line moves over parts of the W and NW, ECM showing wintry showers of sleet and snow for higher ground especially the NW...a few white mountain caps by Friday maybe.
After a mild day tomorrow getting up to around 12C in places turning a bit cooler Thurs night into Fri morning but getting a bit milder again towards Fri to around 8 or 9 C it would seem.
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A few people might get woken up all right with squally wind and rain going through. Some CAPE available mainly in the W and NW, maybe around the coasts, will see if any thunderstorms develop a bit in the frontal passage or any reports of localised strong gusts or downdraughts, best chance towards Northern counties perhaps. Sharp temperature drop as the front passes.
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Thought there would be a bit of a discussion about Sunday night here, a few runs have been hinting the prospect of back-end snow on a stalling front across south central and eastern areas into Monday morning:
It has been showing for a few runs now...
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A windy period in store for Tuesday night into a Wednesday PM with a Yellow Alert possible for Galway, Mayo and Donegal. SW winds could bring gusts of 90-110kmh in exposed coastal locations there. Much less windy conditions further south. A deep depression will impact Norway.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The ECM has wobbled from a 00z that showed next to nothing? There was little to no snow potential of note 24 hours ago. As for it being a poor run, you might explain 🤷
Come Wednesday, we may still be guessing about what Thursday will bring with upgrades, downgrades sidegrades and more odd Boards.ie posts in between.
For what it's worth, the MOGREPS is offering a variety of solutions as we head into Thursday.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Maybe it's reporting the facts! Icon and gfs have removed the snow potential. That's not having a bout of depression it's a call on the latest information to hand
Gfs control going same route, low pressure hovers over us for several days
No snow in that chart...
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GFS T84
Snow over Connacht
Spreading in to the midlands and N leinster
Then ulster
Not sure how that removed the snow potential as mentioned above. Conveniently ignoring Wolfes ecm post as well. Snow looks more transient on this gfs granted but it’s far from a done deal yet to be writing it off entirely and stating the snow potential is gone. For many it’s the first opportunity of the winter to see some meaningful snow. It’ll take some time to sure up the details. I don’t have a crystal ball so I can’t call it definitively like some can unfortunately. No doubt if it shifts 100 miles south we’ll see calls for a red warning …
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Well off the top of my head 2016 and end of Feb 2018 with a easterly into March. But 2016 remember it well got down to -7 here in the snow covered fields. System pushed in from the SW into Cold and gives us 6 to 8 inches of snow. Lasted about a week I think. The freezing fog was the worst. Froze everything.
Edit: Yep! looked it up
On 14 Easterly I remember so well because we couldn't get out of the house. Walked to local shop for supplies.
2018 Temp chart But end of February. Our winters have not gone anywhere.
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The cooler airmass taking hold from around later Weds/ Thurs morning after the frontal passage goes through Weds which in itself produces a good bit of rain especially along Atlantic counties. Wintry showers being introduced from around early Thurs with rain, sleet, possibly a bit of snow on higher elevations and being convective in nature hail and maybe the odd isolated thunderstorm. Showers heaviest in the Western half of the country mostly, could see 40 to 50mm by Sat along Atlantic coasts. A bit windy at times along the coasts and getting breezy to windy at times overland at times but nothing too strong at this stage. Will be watching to see if a few unstable troughs develop but currently doesn't look cold enough for any accumulations of note away from high ground, ECM just showing it dropping to lows of around 1 or 2C at night maybe a bit of Frost later Fri/ early Sat. No doubt some white caps on mountains by the weekend.
Tomorrow good sunshine levels from mid morning behind the front as it clears eastwards .Looks like decent enough sunshine for good parts of the country on Weds before the advancing cloud associated with the front due to cross the whole country from the SW, W later Weds/ early Thurs , decent sunshine on Thurs away from the Western side of the country for a time before showery troughs move eastwards.
Tues getting up to around 13C , Weds could be very mild especially in the SE up as high as 15C. Day time temps look like getting up to around 6 to 8C in general Thurs and Fri maybe higher on Sat in the South.
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