Ian Bailey RIP - threadbans in OP

I have said that Bailey may be guilty or innocent.

But I have been clear there are numerous factors about Bailey's character that make him a good fit as a suspect.

There is a difference between being a suspect and being convicted in court. Some people seem to struggle with that one and think that because someone is a suspect, it automatically means guilt.

There was no criminal trial so we are all only surmising and alleging, nothing more.

There is a difference between being a suspect and being convicted in court. Some people seem to struggle with that one and think that because someone is a suspect, it automatically means guilt.

The main people who seem to struggle with that were some of the guards and detectives that were involved in the case.

It was the DPP who had to remind them in stark terms multiples of times.

Also I have yet to see you comment any other potentially motive or suspect without complete dismissal.

Shite country? go live in Spain or Germany or France, you think its bad here, they get **** pay over there, they get a **** pension over there, the social welfare system is **** over there, Ireland is actually a pretty decent country to live in, in that regard.

The Guards try to carry the investigation to France but were blocked by the French

The DPP report, with the hindsight of testimony at court cases and public interviews by Jules and Bailey in the intervening years, does not read well now.

For me Bailey is the most likely suspect, although at this stage its unlikely it can be proved definitively he (or any other suspect) did it...because of a lack of definitive hard evidence.

Regards his alibi, I'd question if Thomas knew anything about him getting in or out of bed as she had taken painkillers which combined with alcohol probably meant she fell into a deep sleep. So there was quite a significant window of time there where Bailey had no alibi aside from supposedly writing an article.

Regards his motive, probably multiple reasons. He had a history of latching onto women from wealthy backgrounds and acting as a parasite and he may have viewed Du PLantier as his next victim in that regard and was frustrated when she told him where to go. Bailey gravitated to women like Du Plantier since his earlier 20s, women who were well-connected and influential. A french woman living in a large holiday home, its without question Bailey would have been intrigued about who she was and what her background was. Also his history of attacking women when drunk and apparently blacking out when doing so to the point he was unable to stop himself.

Re other suspects, there are some but almost all are unlikely.

Alfie Lyons - there was talk he fell out with her, but how often was she around for them to fall out - she came occasionally. its not like they came across each other every day. Others say they were friends. The motive is weak imo. Plus he hardly had the build to carry out such a sustained attack.

Daniel Du Planier - completely ruling him out for reasons i mentioned previously

Intruder/burgular - unlikely as nothing was stolen, and why would they bother kililng her if she didnt see or recognise them? Also the house was vacant most of the year, they would likely come when vacant. Its more a case of someone waiting until she was there in the case of this murder.

Others -possibly but no-one stands out like Bailey.

Do you mean Du Plantier's background? They did some digging and continue to do it, such as trying to find evidence that she and Bailey were somehow connected and I would imagine any other suspect in the case. A lot of it is hearsay though.

Whether they asked her to lie or not, doesn't mean she shouldn't at some stage have faced a charge because of it, as well as any garda involved. This is where the weakness was. You'd still be hopeful something comes out of this and they end up in court, but you wouldn't hold your breadth.

I still see Bailey as the main suspect though.

Did i say marry? Stop putting words in peoples mouths.

As for the motive of ingratiating himself with her, how on earth is that a new motive? Its been mentioned numerous times as a motive.

What claim being true? That he latched onto women from influential backgrounds? His first wife came from a wealthy family but he was ran out of that family because of causing "psychological cruelty". Thomas's father was also renouned as was Thomas. She ran him or one of her daughters did likely also because of cruelty.

Du plantier also came from a wealthy and connected background. The idea he'd simply ignore her just doesn't hold water. He was exactly the type of woman he went for.

And as for believing a word out of his mouth, that's a mistake many many people have made over the years.

Ok so you is your prime suspect and why? I've given you mine!

Re: Alfie, neighbours fall out... it was Christmas time, people are often more on edge, if a confrontation over something was to happen it would have to be while she was there. Someone grassed Alfie to the Guards for growing cannabis and that happened not long after Sophie moved in iirc. You could just as easily argue the number of different wounds and objects used in the attack suggest someone who doesn't have major physical strength. If the blocks were being used to prop the gate open, it sounds like Alfie was capable of moving them. And we can't rule out an early morning incident which would make a neighbour type incident more likely.

It is a weak enough \ unusual enough motive for Bailey too ... setting out at 3am as a time to 'latch on' to someone who barely knew you \ knew you at all. You think a long walk on a cold December night would bring someone to their senses if they had a momentary impulse along the lines you suggest. No evidence of any previous of his domestic abuse incidents taking such form. No evidence from any women of him pestering them in such a fashion or reacting badly to a rebuff.

As noted above re: Daniel, there is nothing really pointing to him being involved but I would not have confidence he was actually properly investigated by the Guards given they got nowhere when they went over to interview him. So there is a known unknown there.

There is also Karl Heinz Wolney who committed suicide a few months after the murder, lived a mile away. Some background here from an article originally in the Sunday Mirror, but a lot of the information is based on a 'source':

Any possible theory is a peeping tom, who Sophie went out in a rush to scare off, and recognised. This would need to happen earlier in the night than the timing possible for Bailey (e.g. 3am on), on the assumption Sophie would be asleep in bed by then.

My own feeling is that there is criminal element involved somehow. Person or person(s) unknown went there not with murder in mind but to warn Sophie off, or looking for something. Something either drugs related given the area's reputation for drugs smuggling or connected to those 2 French citizens who were known to Sophie and were hiding out in West Cork. And things things got out of hand.

The eastern Europe mistress

Someone had to do it. Who do you think was most likely to have done it based on all you know about the case?