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Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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    #30062
    nerd69
    Registered Users Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭nerd69


    Youd think so ya in time he should be immense



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    #30063
    Billy_the_Kid
    Registered Users Posts: 202 ✭✭Billy_the_Kid
    Master


    Id like to see to McCarthy start, he is the perfect type of player to pick against France. I think Farrell rates him highly too.



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    #30064
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692990#Comment_121692990

    That is not what ruck effectiveness means either. Unfortunately I can not find a description on that website of how exactly they are quantifying it here, but it normally references the impact one has, not the outcome of the ruck.



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    #30065
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,105 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692923#Comment_121692923

    Baird is the best 6 in the country.



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    #30066
    nerd69
    Registered Users Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭nerd69


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693467#Comment_121693467

    You may not lose the ruck but either your dragging an extra body into the ruck, were losing ball or the balls dog slow. All of which are major no nos for how we like to play. I dont think people realise how important ryan is to this team



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    #30067
    nerd69
    Registered Users Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭nerd69


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693542#Comment_121693542

    No our captains the best 6 in the country. Baird is next man up id say though



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    #30068
    pickarooney
    Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    Doris and Prendergast are in the mix.



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    #30069
    nerd69
    Registered Users Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭nerd69


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693704#Comment_121693704

    Doris is an 8 first and prendergast barely made the squad though hes young yet and i do think hes a monster



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    #30070
    TomsOnTheRoof
    Registered Users Posts: 1,035 ✭✭✭TomsOnTheRoof


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693542#Comment_121693542

    Nah, POM all day.



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    #30071
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,597 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692890#Comment_121692890

    I'd agree with all of this tbh.

    83.3% vs 91.9% effectiveness. Adjusting for minutes makes it 119 vs 160 offensive rucks hit total, which amounts to 99 vs 147 effective rucks hit over the same time on the pitch.

    That doesn't seem all that marginal for either effectiveness or volume to me.



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    #30072
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693691#Comment_121693691

    If McCarthy does start I doubt it will be ahead of Ryan.

    For what it's worth, the reporting coming out seems to suggest Beirne to 6 and POM to 7 so Ryan and McCarthy start in the row. Will hold judgement if that's the case, but I can't say I'm overly enamoured by it.



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    #30073
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The statistical yak shaving amuses me.

    The Ireland coaching team will be focussing on performances in big Champions Cup and Interpro games for selection purposes and will be supplementing that with how they perform close up in training camps. If they want to dig into specific statistics for a very close call they'll be using their video analysts to clip specific games. The aggregated league statistics tell us very little about how a player builds form, particularly in the case of a young player like McCarthy who's just become a starter and is improving rapidly.



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    #30074
    nerd69
    Registered Users Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭nerd69


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694082#Comment_121694082

    That's probably not true given hes not played in many big champions cup games prior to playing in a world cup quarter final

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


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    #30075
    nerd69
    Registered Users Posts: 10,091 ✭✭✭✭nerd69


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693906#Comment_121693906

    Makes more sense from a balance perspective though as vdf has more of a free role. Not sure vdf on the bench is the best use of him mind



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    #30076
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694117#Comment_121694117

    They'll use the available games

    Prior to that WRC QF they could look at had minutes in Champions Cup group stage, URC knockouts, and Summer Nations warmup games. After that they had the luxury of a long WRC camp and giving him 80 minutes against Romania.

    This season they can now assess him as a starter in every big Leinster game.



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    #30077
    OldRio
    Registered Users Posts: 6,056 ✭✭✭OldRio


    No doubt whatever decision is made, the usual suspects will moan. Win or lose.

    4 year cycle for the World Cup or win 6 nations. Give youth a chance or play the experienced. Small changes for me. Evolution and not revolution.



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    #30078
    jacothelad
    Registered Users Posts: 5,931 ✭✭✭jacothelad


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121692206#Comment_121692206

    Most line outs won apart from Beirne and 1 10th of a line out more than Henderson but 0.0 line out steals. So long as he is picked I'd be happy. The stats are so close in the second row players that they are almost meaningless.

    Post edited by jacothelad on


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    #30079
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I think I've made it clear I'm a big fan of Joe McCarthy, and believe he's earned the right to be in the Irish 23 on Friday night, but I don't like the speculation I'm reading that to accommodate this we're going to shift Beirne to 6 and POM to 7.

    If it were me - I'd start Joe on the bench with Beirne and Ryan in the second row, and POM - JVDF and Doris in the back row. I'd have Baird ahead of Conan on the bench, but I'm skeptical that will happen.

    I think a flanker pairing of Beirne (at 6) and POM (at 7) is lacking too much dynamism at this point in their careers, in terms of carrying, hitting and linespeed generally.

    I don't think we should be tailoring our selection to try and counter France's size, I think if we're playing that sort of game then we're going to lose.

    My team would be:

    (15-9, 1-8):

    Keenan, Nash, Ringrose, Aki, Lowe, Crowley, JGP, Porter, Sheehan, Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, POM, JVDF, Doris.

    Reps: Kelleher, Healy, Bealham, McCarthy, Baird, Casey, Frawley, Henshaw.



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    #30080
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,589 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694655#Comment_121694655

    Yeah look who has most line out steals. There a reason McCarthy is at zero, he's lifting Ryan.

    Plus, he's the best maul defender in the leinster squad



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    #30081
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694655#Comment_121694655

    Yeah, that surprised me as I'd felt I could remember some lineout steals from him (but it's possible they were in Europe and then not in the sample).

    Leinster have stolen more lineout ball this year than in years past, and seem to be attempting to go after opposition ball much more aggressively. Ryan Baird has stolen a lot of ball this season, and James Ryan is always good for a few.

    One final point from me on McCarthy's ruck numbers: I think it shouldn't be overlooked that he is carrying a huge amount of ball, and being utilised as a carrier (and dummy runner) a lot by Leinster. Obviously when you're being gameplanned in that way, you're inevitably going to hit less offensive rucks.

    It doesn't speak to the effectiveness - that's more on exuberance and just inaccuracy (and something I think he can improve), but it does explain a volume disparity IMO. His defensive ruck hit numbers and effectiveness are good and comparable with the guys he's vying with.



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    #30082
    bilston
    Registered Users Posts: 17,802 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121691311#Comment_121691311

    Looking at those stats it's hard to make the case for Ryan or Beirne starting over Henderson



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    #30083
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,589 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694709#Comment_121694709

    Agreed



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    #30084
    Paul Smeenus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,471 ✭✭✭Paul Smeenus


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694709#Comment_121694709

    Don't be silly. The whole point of those stats being posted is to argue that McCarthy must be in the team. You're not actually supposed to look at them and ask wider questions or look at the broader context.



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    #30085
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,589 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694875#Comment_121694875

    Why can't you?

    Surely you can read them and analysis them.



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    #30086
    ionadnapokot
    Registered Users Posts: 4,840 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121693906#Comment_121693906

    It would be a mistake not to start both vdF and Beirne.


    France 27 v 6 Ireland. Colombes, Paris, 1964

    F.Keogh (Bective rangers); P.Casey (UCD), J.Walsh (UCG), K.Flynn (Wanderers) A.Duggan (Lansdowne); M.Gibson (Cambridge University), J.Kelly (UCD); S.Millar (Ballymena), R.Dawson (Wanderers), M.O’Callaghan (Sundays well); W.Mulcahy (Bective rangers) Capt; W.McBride (Ballymena); E.Maguire (UCG), G.Culliton (Wanderers), N.Murphy (Cork Constitution)

    Paul MacWeeney IT. Monday, April 13, 1964

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    On the face of it, with five superb tries and a dropped goal from such a range as to be almost unfair, this might be rated as an outstanding French side but certain reservations can hardly be avoided. The principal of these was the weakness of the Irish tackling. Especially in the most important areas, around the fringes of the scrums and at the back of the line-outs.

    The most potent agent of destruction was Sitjar, capped for the first time against Wales last month and a flanker in the highest tradition of his country. This short, heavily built individual was a positive ball of fire. For whether in taking the short pass from scrum-half Lasserre after a set scrum or supporting the line-out catch by Dauga, he accelerated into top speed in a stride, tore past the Irish and having found the open country on the blind side veered out towards the open to link up with his immediate colleagues, Crauste and Lira.

    The inability of either Murphy or Culliton to check Sitjar was disastrous for with ever-surging drive the support widened the breach until the passage to the line was almost cleared. Sitjar might well have done some damage in the early stages but to allow him to continue his devastation almost throughout only emphasises the strange frailty of the Irish tackling. 

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpobgfAh6Ac

    33:15 Check out the scrum!



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    #30087
    Paul Smeenus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,471 ✭✭✭Paul Smeenus


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121694967#Comment_121694967

    You can, but it's not worth hearing endlessly from Ryan ultras.



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    #30088
    Dubinusa
    Registered Users Posts: 8,557 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    Regardless of selection this week, I think this is a great chance for us to get over the line away to France.



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    #30089
    ulsteru20s
    Registered Users Posts: 2,544 ✭✭✭ulsteru20s


    I spent a bit of time and used that website to compile top 5 locks in ireland using the rate stats for URC. The only **** thing is that ryan didn't play enough to be included i guess? He's not on there anyway. I did not include baird or ahern.

    Thanks @LordPalmerston again for the link earlier. Really fun site to play with.

    I just did rate stats instead of totals.

    Dominant Carry %

    • Jenkins 61.8%
    • Edogbo 55.6%
    • Joyce 55.6%
    • Moloney 55%
    • McCarthy 48.1%

    Gainline %

    • Edogbo 62.5%,
    • McCarthy 56.6%
    • Joyce 55.6%
    • Moloney 45.5%
    • Jenkins 44.4%

    Offensive Ruck effectiveness

    • Beirne 94.8%,
    • Treadwell 91.7%
    • Niall Murray 89.6%
    • Moloney 89%
    • Jenkins 84.4%

    Tackle %

    • Henderson 95.4%
    • D. Murray 93.2%
    • Edogbo 92.9%
    • N Murray 92.7%
    • Treadwell 92.1%

    Dom Tackle %

    • McCarthy 15.9%
    • Edogbo 9.5%
    • Joyce 7.9%
    • N Murray 5.5%
    • Jenkins 4.9%

    Defensive Ruck effectiveness

    • N Murray 40%
    • D Murray 33.3%
    • Edogbo 21.4%
    • Beirne 21.1%
    • Henderson 15.8%

    I'm sure there are some mistakes in my transcribing. Also some of these are obv sample issues but i didn't really feel like judging a min standard for each one.

    Edogbo is the star of this in the sense he shows up on 5 lists out of 6. It seems that that injury could have messed up his breakout season into becoming a star.

    Jenkins shows up on 4 lists. I get why south africa stuck a cap on him just to make sure given his age. Would have been eligible for ireland at 30. N Murray shows up on 4 as well.

    Joyce, McCarthy and Moloney show up on three lists.

    Henderson, Beirne, Treadwell and D Murray make two. In fairness to Henderson, he was .1% from making three and mccarthy making two.

    Anyway, i'll do a more meaningful list at end of season for more positions.

    Edit: i guess a better analysis of this would be to find the elite drop off points. Where there is a big drop off and then a big bunch of guys.



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    #30090
    ionadnapokot
    Registered Users Posts: 4,840 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot


    I still cant get my head around the "Offensive Ruck effectiveness". Whatever metrics they use its surely a very subjective bit of data. Much like the "Defensive Ruck effectiveness".



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    #30091
    AdamD
    Registered Users Posts: 12,626 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121695030#Comment_121695030

    1 potential flaw of this is that its mainly showing impact effectiveness and not volume/work rate. Jenkins shows up well here but I wouldn't think his volume is great



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