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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Sending expeditionary professional soldiers to a conflict zone would not tear societies apart in Western Europe. The first Gulf war had no trouble gathering together a coalition of armies to aid Kuwait , a distant small country.

    Ballistic missiles hitting major European cities while unthinkable are more likely to have a galvanising effect to further support escalation and seriously erode any Russian sympathy remaining in EU countries.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,140 ✭✭✭Sigma101


    All his argument is based on Russia being stronger in bilateral 'negotiations' coming from 'a position of power'. Did he make this video back in 2021?

    The video was made this week. In the scenario that he describes, the Russian objective would be to trigger disunity in NATO in a manner that would lead to its collapse.

    I'd be confident of the Finns or the Poles on their own defeating Russia militarily.

    In your scenario where either Finland or Poland had to confront Russia on their territory "on their own", NATO would have failed to invoke Article 5, and the Russian objective would already have been achieved.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,080 ✭✭✭Brief_Lives


    this webpage lead me to lose a couple of hours of reading.

    every link leads onto stuff I really didn't know.


    and then I moved on to Manchuria, Kuril Islands, Sakhalin.

    Russians are some shower of....



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,403 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,437 ✭✭✭jmreire


    In the above scenario, where Putin tests NATO resolve as you have described, and based on the concept that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, I'd say that NATO would hit him with everything they have. They well know by now that anything less than a full-scale counterattack, destroying Russian forces, will only trigger a bigger response from Putin. Bottom line is " If Putin try's it on with Nato, he will be destroyed 100%." no half measures. his first attempt will be his last, and it has to be like this.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Is there a a minimum requirement for NATO members to respond with if a conflict did break out. Could a member send a few hundred soldiers and be deemed to have fulfilled its responsibilities?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,154 ✭✭✭saabsaab




  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It would be a short skirmish considering they have the current shortages of men ,tanks and aircraft,



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,403 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Couple interesting things happening:


    Sky News report today Quoting UAF heads that Russias offensive is ' fizziling out'

    Guardian article claiming Zelensky asked Zaluzhny to step aside but he refused.

    All Eyes On Rafah



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,982 ✭✭✭rogber


    For sure. Corruption is still a huge problem in Ukraine but genuine efforts seem to be underway to improve the situation, which is the exact opposite of Russia.



  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭IdHidden


    It is quite unreal that the main reason the Russians can carry on their own invasion...at their own chosen time and place...is because they have begged Iran/NK for weapons and ammo.

     Its equally easy to forget, despite some disappointments, how amazing it is that here we are, nearly 2 years down the line and the Ukrainians are holding firm and causing massive casualties on all things Russian. Imagine it if the Republicans hasn't stalled on support as they have at the moment. The Russians would be in real trouble.

    What an opportunity missed to damage the Russian imperialist state.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    There is nowhere for him to either invade or to occupy via kaliningrad the Baltics are sewn shut and then there is the constant NATO intelligence gathering aircraft over head for the last 2 years off the coast, and there's several hundred thousand NATO troops on Standby or already stationed in the Baltics that's out of the question,to get the weak links like Romania and Moldova he has to commit to a large naval amphibious assault via the black sea, the black sea that's currently off limits to the Russians in the air and on the water,so that's out of the question, Finland they share a large border Finland are well prepared for the Russians and they also have bilateral defence agreements with There neighbours the Danes and Swedes so that out of the question already .

    So there's no where Russia can Suddenly invade or occupy

    Post edited by Gatling on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    Finally some movement on the long awaited GLSDB. That's the good news.

    On the bad news front, I'm less confident now that the American funding for the border/Ukraine bill will be passed than I used to be. I do still lean on the side of the bill passing but I've become less sure.

    Beforehand I thought that Johnson was just a whore who hadn't been paid his price yet in border reforms for the vote to go ahead and it was all a bit of theatre. I hadn't anticipated that the horrible orange c*nt could be pressuring the MAGA republicans to stall the border issue until the election campaigning kicked off. So he could swoop in and save the issue for himself, the last thing Trump wants is to hand Biden a win on the border issue. It's really all up to the other republicans now to pressure Johnson into making the vote. Or potentially Johnson could be outed and the dems could offer any other nominated speaker protection from the hardline MAGA republicans.

    The details of the proposed border reforms will be coming out this week supposedly and Johnson hasn't made any signals that he's willing to compromise yet. It'll be a very important week for Ukraine in the US.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,437 ✭✭✭jmreire


    After such an attempt to "test" NATO, they should have much less!! 😎



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,839 ✭✭✭Polar101


    I haven't seen the video, but there's no realistic scenario in which any of the Baltic or Nordic countries, or Poland, would be fighting a Russian invasion on their own. It's possible there would be limited aid coming from the US, UK, or say, Spain - and probably nothing at all from the likes of Hungary and Turkey. Russia would still have to fight several countries. All of which are prepared for Russian aggression.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,403 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    While I agree they would be supported, I'd also think that Poland at this stage (considering the state of the Russian forces in Ukraine) might actually be able to handle Russia by herself.

    All Eyes On Rafah



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The poles have a specific plan and are working towards that plan ,they want to be the top dog in Europe but they have Openly talked about open conflict with Russia within the next 6-8 years, and they are still Spending on defence heading for 3% of their GDP but they are still in the building phase another few years they could roll to Siberia and back



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,839 ✭✭✭Polar101


    It all depends on how quickly Russia can rebuild after this war. At the moment it looks like it's going to take a while with all the equipment losses and sanctions. The one thing they have going for them is that they'll have more combat experience than their next opponents. But their next opponents will be ready, and started building up earlier.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,403 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    I'm not sure about the combat experience thing as so much of their combat capable troops seem to be sent on operation suicide or meat grinder.

    All Eyes On Rafah



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,238 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,167 ✭✭✭green daries


    And the fact that the hardware has been proven to be atrocious



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    We've seen what Ukraine is doing with 20 or so Himars ,

    Poland is getting 486 and another 300 + Korean equivalent and thats just Rocket artillerty before the armour and Apache helicopters, put that against the Russians that's a very bad day for any military let alone one as bad as Russia's as It stands now



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,839 ✭✭✭Polar101


    They're going to be pretty good at lobbing missiles/drones at civilian targets at the very least.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Ok so we can probably now say Russia's missile capacity has been seriously reduced. For months last year they weren't using many and we believed they were stock piling for the winter months. November, December and January are gone. Only February left.

    They launched what they could and it's hardly affected Ukraine. Hopefully Ukraine acquires even more air defence systems this year and Russia's long range missile threat is twarted for the rest of the war.

    There'll Keep making a few every month at great expense but they won't be crippling Ukraine thank God.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    A good read on the mobilisation and Reforms they are trying to push through, oddly enough Mobilisation age for males is 27- 60 and currently only 7% of working aged population is actually serving in the military, definitely changes need to be made but they seem to be focusing on people outside of Ukraine, they can't be forced back not will they be deported from EU States which could cause issues with EU support




  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭Roald Dahl


    If Poland see themselves at war with Russia within the next decade then surely it can only mean that their plan is to seize Królewiec, the formerly German city of Königsberg. Or perhaps that is only wishful thinking on my behalf.

    I had rather hoped that Germany might like it back, but that does not seem to be the case. I believe thomil may have mentioned this some time back.

    Certainly the Russians do need to be rousted out of what is essentially EU territory and it becoming part of Poland is more than acceptable.



This discussion has been closed.
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