Ian Bailey RIP - threadbans in OP

So a drunken man, in a violent psychotic rage most likely covered in blood, walked back to the house, removed his shoes, did the washing up, cleaned the house forensically, then went into the pump house to get the block to finish her off. Sounds plausible. Some people have seen too many movies.

Ian Bailey went out to his writing room. Tried to write a story and fell asleep.

I’ve no ideas who murdered Sophie. Without physical evidence I doubt we ever will.

As a matter of interest has the article Bailey was commissioned to write appeared in print on the Tuesday or subsequently 🤔

Yes it did appear funnily enough. He was all week writing it and was getting nowhere. And then on the night of the murder, after consuming several drinks and his infamous whiskey, he sat up in bed and said to himself, i must finish that article. Jumped out of bed and wrote it. It appeared on the kitchen table the next morning. Then he forgot all about it, despite the article appearing in a Sunday newspaper!

In any case, it was a short article, 750 words. I've probably written that number of words already on here today, in less than an hour in total.

Able to write for a Sunday Newspaper, not able to walk a few kms or wash a couple of glasses. Go figure!

I'm not going to bother with that particular poster, there's a difference.

20 Signs You May Be Dealing With a Psychopath (choosingtherapy.com)

1. Superficial Charm & Charisma

Psychopaths can be very charming, charismatic, and persuasive people. This can be especially so with female psychopaths, who are more social and emotional than their male counterparts. While they lack true empathy, they are often very skilled at “faking” prosocial behaviors like flattery, kindness, and false sympathy. They may use these skills to get what they want from people, but eventually, they are unable to keep up with the act. Over time, the charm and charisma will probably wear off, unmasking an underlying coldness or cruelty.1,6

2. Unnecessary Cruelty or a Mean Streak

Once the superficial charm and charisma wear off, a psychopath will often demonstrate moments of cruelty or meanness. These may include gossip, biting comments, lashing out aggressively at others, or being entertained when they hurt or embarrass someone. Cruelty and meanness are hallmark signs of a psychopath and typically lead to a pattern of violating the rights of others.1,3,6

3. Lies, Exaggerations, & Dishonesty

Many psychopaths are prone to pathological lying. They may exaggerate the truth to get their way, inflate their ego, or get others to think, feel, or do what they want them to. Normal people generally feel guilty or at least a little worried about being caught in a lie, but a psychopath’s lack of conscience makes lying a guilt-free activity. In fact, deception is even a listed symptom of ASPD and can show up as a person ‘faking’ remorse and concern for other people.2,6,7

4. Lack of Accountability & Playing the Blame Game

Psychopaths commit some of the cruelest, most violent, and most heinous acts in society. However, they rarely take responsibility for their actions. Instead, they are more likely to blame others, make excuses, and try to justify their actions, no matter how bad they are. This sign of a psychopath is indicative of their lack of morals and conscience, meaning they do not have the same sense of ‘right and wrong’ that most people do.6,7

5. Need for Power, Control, & Dominance

Many psychopaths seek out positions of power and authority because they enjoy domination and control of other people. According to research, psychopaths may search for and secure positions of leadership in the corporate world, suggesting there is a grain of truth in the stereotype of the “psychopathic CEO.”8 There is also a known overlap between psychopathy, narcissism, and Machiavellianism (immoral and exploitative tendencies), which can lead to this hunger for control.7,9

6. Sadistic Enjoyment of Pain & Suffering

Sadism is a word that describes a sick sense of pleasure from the pain and suffering of others. For some psychopathic people, the pain of others is sexually arousing. On the other hand, pleasure is non-sexual and has more to do with excitement, power, or the ‘rush’ of the experience.3,6,7 Not all psychopaths are sadistic, but this quality is not an uncommon trait in a psychopath, which may explain why psychopathic traits predict violent and sexually violent crimes with 80% accuracy.1

7. Boredom & Thrill-Seeking Behaviors

Because psychopaths lack some of the normal emotional wirings that most individuals have, it takes a lot more to excite them, make them happy, or thrill them. Psychopaths are overall less impulsive than sociopaths because they aren’t driven by strong emotions, but their dulled emotional response may cause them to seek out thrills. This may be why psychopaths are more likely to engage in crime, violence, sexual promiscuity, and drug or alcohol use.1,3,6

8. Disregard for Rules, Laws, & Norms

Psychopaths do not follow the same code of ethics as most people in society, which is why they often behave in immoral or illegal ways. These may include minor offenses like inappropriate comments and profanity, or serious offenses such as crime and violence. Not all psychopaths are violent criminals, but a high percentage of those who commit crimes (especially violent crimes) have psychopathic traits.1,5,6

9. Unaffected & Unafraid of Consequences

Many individuals who engage in criminal behaviors live in fear of being caught. However, psychopaths don’t always possess this same worry. This may be partially explained by the fact that psychopaths are believed to have abnormalities in areas of the brain that create normal fear responses and those related to impulse control and good long-term decision-making.3,4

10. Detached, Cold, & Callous Demeanor

Psychopaths often display a cold, callous, and apathetic demeanor.1,6,7 The differences in the structure of their brains are believed to limit their ability to experience a normal range of human emotions, making them less likely to experience strong feelings.3,4 In situations when others are sad, upset, anxious, or excited, a psychopath may seem oddly detached or apathetic.7

11. A History of Childhood Behavior Problems

Antisocial personality disorder can be diagnosed only after the age of 18, but the signs and symptoms of ASPD usually begin in childhood or early adolescence.2 Most psychopaths show signs of conduct disorder before the age of 15, and the most severe psychopaths may be able to trace their behavioral issues to before the age of 10.5 Some common signs of a psychopath in childhood include frequent fights, lying, stealing, cruelty to animals or other children, and a disregard for rules or authority.2,5

12. A Trail of Short, Broken Relationships

Because of an inability to empathize with other people, it makes sense that psychopaths have trouble forming and maintaining close relationships. While they may be able to use their charm or powers of persuasion to fool somebody into liking them, they usually lack the ability to sustain these relationships over time.7 This is why most psychopaths have very short, shallow relationships, as well as a long trail of individuals who they’ve betrayed, hurt, or turned into enemies.

13. Exploitation of Others for Personal Gain

A psychopath will use, abuse, and exploit others, especially when it means getting something they want. In their pursuit of power, wealth, and fame, there are no lengths they won’t go to in order to achieve their goals. This is bound to leave many casualties in their path, and a psychopath will have no remorse when they need to throw someone under the bus in order to get ahead, even when this person has helped them along the way.1,3,5,6,8

14. Calculated & Strategic Planning

While sociopaths are driven by emotions, a psychopath is cool-headed and calculated in their decision-making.1,3,6 This can make them more dangerous as it’s not as easy to predict what they will do or when they will make their move. Some psychopaths devise detailed plans on how to con, exploit, or take advantage of people who are naturally generous. While psychopaths are not generally patient individuals, they are typically less impulsive than sociopaths.3,6

15. A Lack of Conscience

Even when they harm another person, a psychopath will not feel genuine remorse for their actions, and may not be phased by the consequences of their actions when they get in trouble. This also makes them especially dangerous because they are less likely to limit their behavior based on fears of getting caught and feeling guilty after. Psychopaths are also less likely to learn from their mistakes.

16. Abnormal Ways of Thinking

Abnormal thoughts are common in psychopaths because their brains are wired differently. This could cause them to make strange, odd, or off-putting comments during normal conversations. A psychopath may occasionally provide a disturbing view into their twisted minds when talking about strange things they like, mean comments about others, or statements that make it clear they don’t care about anyone else.

17. Poor Attention Span & Loss of Interest

One of the less commonly known signs of a psychopath is a poor attention span, which can show up in similar ways as symptoms of ADHD. A psychopath becomes easily bored with activities, tasks, and people, and is always looking for something more exciting to do or see. This can lead them to quickly lose interest in goals, projects, or relationships that once seemed important to them. Additionally, this may be linked to a pattern of irresponsible decision-making or abandoning tasks before finishing them.6,7

18. Violent Tendencies, Abuse, or Aggression

One of the most dangerous signs of a psychopath is a tendency towards violence, aggression, and abuse. Psychopathy is one of the strongest predictors of violent behavior, including crimes and sexual violence. Unfortunately, many violent psychopaths will re-offend, even after receiving treatment, rehabilitation, serving prison time, or having other legal consequences.1,3,4,6

19. Hostile & Oppositional by Nature

Another less commonly known psychopath trait is a hostile and oppositional demeanor. While psychopaths can pretend to be friendly and charming for a short time, their true nature is aggressive. Psychopaths are more likely to hold racist, sexist, or misogynistic views toward others, and treat people in malicious or unkind ways.1,6 They may be more argumentative and combative, seeking out conflict and confrontation (while most people try to avoid it).

20. Masters of Deception

A final warning sign of a psychopath is a person who seems to be especially skilled at the art of deception. Psychopaths are masters of deception and use distortions of truth, gaslighting, and other dishonest tactics to emotionally manipulate others and falsely represent the facts. Unfortunately, psychopaths in treatment may use these deceptive tactics to fool counselors and treatment providers into thinking they have improved. One study found that psychopaths with the highest treatment success scores were most likely to re-offend.

Thanks for posting. Can’t deny that Bailey does tick a lot of these.

I’m still more of the view that he was a gobshite with a temper rather than calculated, psychopathic killer.

Yes, decide on the guilty person, then try make everything else fit that decision.

Joanne Hayes is a classic example of the syndrome. The babies were not related. Therefore she must have had twins after sex with two men, and become pregnant from both seperately.

That Detective Garda still insisted on this forty years after the case.

The case of Colin Stagg/RachelNickell also followed the same pattern.

Police used the media to find him guilty in the court of public opinion and stopped looking for the real perpetrator. Ruined his life too.

Thankfully, both Joanne, her family and Stagg were vindicated and received apologies and compensation.

The scratches are in contention. I've said that. Different people have different theories. I know for a fact Du Plantier did not scratch him. Others have contended it came from the briars or barbed wire. You said yourself the scratches came from a tussle with a Christmas tree! They could have come from anywhere, but if we are to accept your version, perfectly possible he was not scratched at all during the course of the murder.

There is no forensic evidence to link the crime to anyone, including your assassin with a rock.

Open mind on other theories? OK tell us how your assassin with a rock theory works again? And why he didn't leave any forensic evidence. Lets pretend Ian Bailey never existed. You've obviously looked at this case in detail and with an open mind. So you would then have a fairly developed theory on what really happened.

The gardai's number one mistake was a lack of patience. They wanted to get Bailey and quickly. There was more than enough circumstantial evidence to build a strong case to charge and convict Bailey, if they had patience. But instead they wanted to go for the quick solution. Completely backfired.

Another flaw in the garda investigation is there was no overall recognizable person in command and the local gardai were inexperienced in investigating crimes of this nature.

Regards convictions based on circumstantial evidence, there have been many successful ones, the Mr Moonlight case a prominent recent one. No hard evidence linking him to the murder, just circumstantial evidence which when put to a jury led them to convict.

I take the opposite view. As you said yourself he ticks a lot of the boxes, I would say most of them.

My point with the other aired theories is that they are as plausible as the ones outlined for Bailey. And remember, I think the theories for Bailey are implausible, and on balance of probabilities likely to be innocent - that applies to the others also. They could possibly be true - Alfie, Daniel hitman angle.

I'm pointing out that that when you base your case on weak, circumstantial evidence and speculative motives and what is 'possible', you can make many people a 'suspect'.

The rock being taken from the pump house points to Alfie or someone very familiar with the site doesn't it? If it is possible Bailey to have walked these kms distance at night after a long day and nights drinking etc, is it impossible that a 63 year old could use the cavity block as a weapon?

It's not clear how Bailey would have known about the block. He did gardening work for Alfie but why would he know about the loose block on the pump house? Even if he did notice it years before, would he still remember that in the heat of the moment? Dubious. Walking over to get that block suggests the pump house was somehow connected to the reason for the murder (as per post linked below by SethBrundle) . Was someone using the pump house for some other purpose? Some dispute about it?

Karl Heinz Wolney scenario would be similar to Baileys. He had no alibi. He lived 1km away. He had been drinking. He committed suicide a few months after the murder. He seems to have come to Ireland after separating from his wife\partner due to him being violent.

The assassin with a rock theory. They were surprised, gun jammed, Sophie escaped their clutches, things got out of control, assassin resorted to whatever could lay hands on. No forensics because wasn't scratched at the scene, was wearing gloves.

But why go back for the cavity block? Were they leaving in that direction, and leant on the pump house after the 'shock' of the attack, realised the block was loose and went back? Is that how Bailey was supposed to have noticed it was loose?

My own instinct is that the real answer is going to come out of left field. Perhaps criminals who were there but not with murder in mind, looking for someone, something or to issue a threat. But the unexpected happens, things get out of control, ends up with a brutal murder.

The use of that particular cavity block is a conundrum for any theory about the murder.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121704738/#Comment_121704738

I think you are playing a bit fast and loose with the facts there, and as has been pointed out many times - none of that is direct evidence of involvement.

For example, there was alien dna found on a boot sample. It was not matched to Bailey. And it is not clear if Bailey "came up" with those other theories, or if he merely publicised what others have said. You don't know who said what to Bailey over the years.

The source of the claim about 'insanity' is hearsay, from a dubious source (Bill Hogan) who has made dubious claims about the case in the past. There are indications Bailey does not have full recall of that night, which might be for an innocent reason - the drink, or it might be a psychotic episode. In that scenario if he was going to be charged, his defence might be, I don't know if I did it, I don't think I did, but if I did it I was insane in that moment. The lack of full recall may also explain the changing alibi.

If lighting a bonfire is suspicious then that goes double for:

Leaving the scene of a murder, through the police cordon, to go to the dump.

Refusing to meet with the police investigating the murder of your then wife.

Why did they have to leave at all, is the question, why couldn't it wait. What was so urgent it needed to be brought to the dump on that day needing the car to be moved?

That's the thing about the block. As I said in previous post, it is a conundrum for any theory or possible culprit. Both Bailey and the hitman theory.

How do they have knowledge of the loose block?

Is fore knowledge required, or could it have been 'stumbled' upon?

Was the block so heavy, it rules out any suspects? And I'll flag the Garda claim that 63yo Alfie was too frail as dubious for the moment.

Why go back for the block?

I do not know the reason for the block. The whole thing was overkill. And definitely points to a mentally damaged culprit imo.

Its almost like one of those cases where a perpetrator throws acid in the face of a woman they can't have, since if they can't have them, no-one can.

The case is likely only to be solved by circumstantial evidence in the absence of hard forensic evidence. That applies regardless of suspects and culprits. The block is unlikely to yield dna evidence but possibly some fingerprint evidence with new techniques. Sophies boots may yield something re some DNA evidence around the laces. Hopefully the cold case investigators look at that, assuming the boots are still in storage.