FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Just took a look at that GEM and i'm not sure why they are showing that level of snow cover when the uppers are extremely marginal.
-4 to -5 uppers with winds in off a relatively warm Irish sea this would be a cold rain event with plenty of mild sectors around. Any snow from this would be limited to high ground in reality. Temperatures of 3 to 6C with -5 uppers at best this would just be a cold rain event for most with snow limited mostly to areas above 400 or 500m.
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It's all ultimately immaterial really when one looks at the ensembles. The 12z GEFS ensembles (near-surface air temps) do not indicate anything severe cold-wise is on the cards over the next 16 days. Above average temps dipping to average or slightly below average beyond February 9th. This is a constant trend from the last 4 days of model output.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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A notable shift towards colder upper air temperatures as we approach mid February. Do I jump onboard again? January was such a let down after so many weeks of model watching, it's hard to get back on the saddle for one last roll of the dice before we enter Spring and thoughts of warmer and more settled weather.
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Three days of snow on the op!
Finally the Iberian Heights are gone on the control. Now it's the just the small matter of this verifying. It does look like it's going to get colder, though. Let's just hope it's snowy- and snowy more widely than the last cold spell.
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First time since early January I've seen one of these on the table.
Even if the above verified it looks very brief but alot better than nothing at all. The above would deliver proper snow showers to the east and south on a widespread basis for the first time since 2018.
Unfortunately it's a total outlier on it's own and almost 0% chance of verifying.
the potential for cold weather is before the operational run turns into an outlier with that easterly and the trend between 9th and 12th of February is for a northerly which probably won't do much outside of Scotland and maybe Northern Ireland.
If a potential northerly is to do the business for Ireland on a widespread scale those Iberian heights need to be completely gone or else the cold will barely make it to Ireland with fun and games mainly reserved for Scotland.
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