Wed, Thu, Fri - Potential Snow event

I have not had the time to look at it but I'd imagine thicknesses

Basically the air temperatures in the air moving S and SW over the country are likely to be sufficiently cold all the way down to near the surface

If its only -3c at 5000ft (850 level) for example and still zero Celsius at 1000ft,you could have snow falling on ground above 600ft and on lower ground in the immediate vicinity of that high ground

That wouldn't be the case in or near the low pressure, it's too warm but the action starts where the precipitation meets that 5000ft to 1000ft zero or below air

The clashing airmasses make heavy precipitation so it's going to be a pasting or a drowning for some

Slide for slide, it's another jog North!! If this trend continues only the far North will see snow...almost every run in the last 24hours has been a fraction further North.....combined of course its actually quite a notable shift

18Z GFS

Disruptive snow seems most likely in Ulster, Connacht, Clare and Tipps, as well as higher portions of the inland southeast.

It's a forecaster's nightmare scenario of marginal uppers, and abundant moisture, persisting for days and slowly shifting around as low pressure attacks from the south and later from the east.

Taking a blended approach rather than riding any one model, I would say there is just enough cold air in place to suggest persistent snowfall over the regions I outlined, and sleet or a cold rain in areas further east or south, but would not be at all surprised if this has intervals where it shifts in either direction, so in other words, nobody should let their guard down as far as snow potential, and even so, some if not all are at risk of being disappointed as far as total snow amounts go.

The median of probabilities at this point (which is relatively short-range) is 5 to 15 cm (locally 25) of lying snow in areas roughly west of an arc running from s.central mountain ranges n.n.e. into Westmeath and then n.e. to Down. Coastal west could see a lot of mixing so that snow would only be lying on higher parts of coastal towns and most of the interior. Some possibility exists for actual rain-snow line to be further east t an my "median" suggestion, i.e., central Waterford into southeastern uplands and Dublin west suburban areas into most of meath except coastal strip. Would say it's a 1 in 4 risk at present.

Dublin is particularly problematic, could see arguments for some snow at times, but probably a lot of sleet and cold rain, with snow piling up on hills to south. Least likely to see snow would be Waterford-Wexford. A lot of mixed falls in parts of west munster also, except coastal environs, so including higher parts of Cork city and larger portions of inland Cork.

Outlooks could change with just slight deviations in guidance. This does not have the certainty of 2018 but it does not look like a dangerous probable bust situation either. I would also be concerned about heavy rainfall potential in lower parts of south and east not seeing much snowfall.

In shorter term, watch cold front moving south today for squall line tendencies. Could become a gusty frontal outflow situation. Some sleet on colder flanks but will clear out before it can dump much snow on hills, I think.

The big question is, will I have to walk up my hill for the 2nd time this year?

Will my car get stuck on it like the last snow or can can I drive up to my house?

The important issues of life !😀

North Kerry

Met Eireann playing it cool for now. Key phrases 'snow mostly on hills' and 'sleet'.

I see the UK Met Office are not messing around with their area of forecast though. Early warning up.

Meh…

I don't think I have ever seen a setup like this give snow to south of north Cork as the cold isn't embedded beforehand. I remember back in the early 90's there was a similar setup and ME were ramping it a bit and basically saying the whole of the country was in for snow, maybe it was because it was a night time event, I was curtain twitching until 9pm when the rain started to fall, very deflating as a young fella.......of course there was heavy snow from Tipp north!

I was hoping that Saturday might bring some snow as the low moved away and colder uppers swept in from the north but now that is gone on most models as the low heads on a northeast path and so the cold required doesn't sweep down.

Hopefully a few of ye will see some white gold and wake up to blizzards on Thursday morning.........I'm just hoping an easterly can set up before February is out.

Pity the whole system wouldn't just fcuk off well to our south and leave us alone. Scrapping the bottom of the winter barrel. Maybe I'll see a few wet flakes mixed in with the sleety rain lol.

Despite people pissing all over the snow potential (mostly people in the pale and south leinster) heres the snow warning , YAY SNOW!

Status Yellow - Snow-Ice warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Connacht

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• A band of rain will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on Thursday.
• 
  
• Impacts
• 
  
• . Ice on untreated surfaces
• 
  
• . Hazardous driving conditions
• 
  
• . Travel disruption
• 
  
• . Poor visibility
• Valid: 02:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 18:00 Thursday 08/02/2024
• Issued: 14:05 Tuesday 06/02/2024
• 
  

Status Yellow - Snow-Ice warning for Donegal

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• A band of rain will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on Thursday.
• 
  
• Impacts
• 
  
• . Ice on untreated surfaces
• 
  
• . Hazardous driving conditions
• 
  
• . Travel disruption
• 
  
• . Poor visibility
• Valid: 11:00 Thursday 08/02/2024 to 20:00 Thursday 08/02/2024
• Issued: 14:10 Tuesday 06/02/2024

The ICON 12z looks 'marginal' for snowfall. However, heavy snow can occur in less cold air (850s of -2c or even higher) at this time of year. In frontal setups, favourable dewpoints and lapse rates, combined with evaporative cooling, can often produce heavy snow. The risk area identified by Met Eireann is correct.

remind me very much of March 9th last year although we had nudging heights to our north that time which prevented the system from tracking too far north. it was incredibly marginal then too but I experienced my heaviest snow since Feb 18. Somewhere is going to get a pasting for sure and you're prob right about inland Connacht.

GFS. It really is a nowcast. It's so borderline! Arpege below

The arome on Thursday morn

The UKV

A difficult morning commute for some on Thursday. It really is a mixed bag of precipitation.

A Snow to Rain event basically

Croagh Patrick forecasted to get 13cm of snow on Wednesday night but nothing but rain in Kerry.

Croagh Patrick Weather Forecast (764m) (mountain-forecast.com)

I think any snow will turn to rain every where lower down, not just by the coasts due to the shape of the low and its track. A bowling ball type of low means more mixing out and things probably going the wrong side of marginal

Right so I’m in the middle of getting a patio laid in the south Dublin area since late last week- what’s the chances of the rain fcuking off tomorrow?

Am I then looking at rain moving on tomorrow evening and it potentially turning to sleet snow for Thursday?

This winter is horrendous so far- ground is fcuked.

Well I suppose at least I get all day tomorrow in the (relative) dry!

Honestly, has there been a wetter 7 months on record than the last seven months!?- it’s abysmal.

Apologies for dragging this off thread folks, keep up the good informative work.

The whole event is a yawnfest, quite similar to the Winter as a whole. Indeed the South hardly turns cold at all before more rain moves up

That's why I moved to the Midlands.