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What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,266 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel will resign after months of pressure from Trump allies - NYT


    Is Mypillow guy available?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Much more likely she can't count past ten without removing her shoes.


    Anyway, I believe they scheduled a vote for when a dem was in hospital for a procedure, but he made it back in time to vote!



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The 14th Amendment could just as easily be called the "Stop Jefferson Davis" amendment.

    It's primary purpose was to prevent Davis (The leader of the Confederacy) from having any kind of political influence after the Civil War.

    The argument that the "framers" as they so love to call them, would write an amendment that would prevent Davis from serving in Congress but would allow him to be President is just utterly nonsensical.

    The "out" for SCOTUS here is to either claim that the States can't make this call , thereby pushing it back to Congress or they can argue that the threshold for "insurrection" hasn't been met or wasn't properly decided by the Colorado Judges.

    That way , the President is covered by the 14th (or they just don't rule on it at all) but the keep Trump on the ballot as Congress will never vote for it given the current makeup.

    That's probably the easiest "legal" exit for them in that it makes it a political decision and removes the courts from the conversation entirely.

    It's craven and cowardly and openly partisan but it's the most likely path they'll take.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,343 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Fully agree, it's the lower courts cutting off the weak exits for SCOTUS is important. Those rulings close the door on wishy washy interpretation of the 14th Amendment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,706 ✭✭✭✭briany


    What *is* the threshold for insurrection? If this is something that would create a significant divergence of opinion between the lower court and the higher, then it must not be that sharply defined such that there could not be a get-out for the SCOTUS.

    I have the feeling that if the Nuremberg Trials were held in the political atmosphere of the US right now, the argument of "I just gave the orders..." would be holding a lot more sway.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,304 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Large parts of the constitution are somewhat vague. While James Madison was undeniably a genius, even he could not predict a Trump being within spitting distance of the highest office in the land. Nevermind for potentially a second term.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Indeed - The fundamental challenge here is that the "framers" worked off the basic assumption that everyone involved would have a baseline level of morality and would behave like "gentlemen" (as they would have viewed it).

    They never foresaw a need to write the rules in such a fashion as to have to protect against the actions of an amoral rapist fraud.

    This is where the "originalist" and "textualist" viewpoint collapses under the weight of its own ridiculousness.

    Originalism/Textualism only works if the process to update the text is realistic and achievable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,596 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Trump's role in the insurrection largely amounts to a mob boss trying to claim he didn't order his men to kill a rival mobster, he only told them to "Take care of him".

    Trump didn't order his followers to prevent the election from being certified, he only gathered them nearby, riled them up with lies about stolen election and their country being stolen from them (several months of this), told them to go to the capitol to "peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard."

    While also saying "You don't concede when there's theft involved. Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore." "You will have an illegitimate president. That is what you will have, and we can't let that happen." "if you don't fight like hell you're not going to have a country anymore".

    He all but told them to "Take care of it".

    From the BBC back in 2021:

    Analysis by Professor Epps

    What is incitement under the law?

    Incitement is not a crime under the First Amendment unless it meets certain criteria.

    First of all, it has to be intended to cause violence (and you infer that intent from the circumstances). It also has to be likely to cause violence.

    If I go downtown and I say to two drunks standing in front of a bank, "let's rob this bank right now", I haven't really incited anybody, because it's not very likely they'll rob the bank.

    If I say let's meet here tomorrow and rip things up, I'm not inciting because - in the words of the Supreme Court - where there is time for better counsels to prevail, the remedy for speech is more speech.

    The speech has to be likely to cause - and this is very important - imminent violent action.

    If this was a court of law, does Trump cross the line?

    It's quite rare that somebody can be convicted of incitement. In applying that to the president's speech at the rally, it's an agonisingly close case.

    It's pretty goddamn imminent because he's telling people to march to the Capitol and I will march with you. There wouldn't be any time for better counsels to prevail because you're just going to leave the Ellipse and walk down Pennsylvania Avenue.

    He said we have to fight and show strength, but he also said we're very peacefully and patriotically going to ask, so he's covering himself. In the end, I think it's a jury question.

    I'm not sure he's entitled to a dismissal of charges as a matter of law. There's some discussion that government leaders have more leeway, but I don't know how that would play out.

    He clearly knew there were people in that crowd who were ready to and intended to be violent, and he certainly did nothing to discourage that. He not only did nothing to discourage it, he strongly hinted it should happen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,304 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Absolutely, take for example, the Second Amendment, the Right to Bear arms. It was signed into law in 1791. Samuel Colt invented the revolver around 1835, so when the right to bear arms was ratified, the arms we were talking about were flintlock rifles and pistols. So you shoot, to shoot again, you pour gunpowder down the barrel, drop in some shot, then drop in a lead ball, and then push it all down using a ramrod

    They never foresaw, either a revolver that can fire 6 rounds in quick succession, and they definitely did not foresee, 200 years later, that basically anyone over the age of 16 could go into walmart and buy an automatic rifle with a clip of 30 rounds and a rate of fire of 45 rounds a minute.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,304 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    He clearly knew there were people in that crowd who were ready to and intended to be violent, and he certainly did nothing to discourage that. He not only did nothing to discourage it, he strongly hinted it should happen.

    Edited. Nevermind, I stand corrected.

    Post edited by LambshankRedemption on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,383 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    he asked for the metal detectors to be removed, so that the mob could approach the Capitol Building with weapons...



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,706 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If Trump can cover himself by saying he told his followers to go to the Capitol "peacefully and patriotically", he's setting a pretty stunning precedent. You can say anything you want to a crowd - rile them up to no end - but once you insert one phrase about no violence, you're completely absolved of any violence which does happen.

    Don't think you'd have to be a cynic to think that particular loophole would be abused.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,689 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    Trump if he had any education worth it's salt, particularly in the WASP context. Would know that even though Henry II never struck a blow nor directly ordered Thomas Beckett's murder?

    That his utterance of "Won't someone rid me of this troublesome priest" was the impetus for the act and that Henry had to atone and commit acts of penance for something he had nothing to do with /s 😉

    I agree with Quin_dub's assessment of the 14th as primarily an anti Jefferson Davis measure. Those who framed it, clearly didn't expect the possibility of the office being usurped by seditious traitor once they'd put down the 1st rebellion.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    And even said "I don't f*cking care if they have weapons , they aren't here to hurt me"

    So he didn't care they they were armed nor did he care what they did with them because he was sure HE wasn't at risk and HE is all that matters to him.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,706 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If it's an anti Jefferson Davis measure, then time has taken care of Davis in quite a final way, rendering that particular section of the US constitution completely redundant and fit for removal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,304 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Fair enough. I wasn't ware of that particular fact. Disregard my previous comment then!



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,706 ✭✭✭✭briany




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,304 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I suspect this was his plan when he used those words. Although to counter it, you could say that he told them to go to the Capitol "Peacefully", but then added the suggestion that *upon arrival* they needed to "fight like hell".

    As with anything like this, the case against Trump will be to prove his intent. For example, if things like trying to remove metal detectors at the rally can be used to prove that his intention was an armed attack on the Capitol, then he can talk all he wants about doing things "peacefully", he could still be found guilty of intending to cause an armed insurrection.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 12,575 Mod ✭✭✭✭2011




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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,485 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Former President Donald Trump urged the Secret Service to remove magnetometers at his rally near the White House on Jan. 6, 2021, despite concerns some of his supporters might be carrying deadly weapons, a former aide testified Tuesday.

    Cassidy Hutchinson, who was a top aide to former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, said Mr. Trump encouraged his security detail to halt screening measures for his supporters at a “Stop the Steal” rally hours before the Capitol riot.

    “I don’t f***ing care if they have weapons. They’re not here to hurt me. Take the f***ing mags away. Let my people in. They can march to the Capitol from here. Let the people in. Take the f***ing mags away,” Ms. Hutchinson recalls overhearing Mr. Trump saying that day, shortly before he went on stage.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jun/28/white-house-aide-trump-urged-removal-magnetometer/

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I remain unconvinced that he "intended" for them to storm the capital and wreak the place as they did , but he wasn't concerned enough to consider it as a possible outcome so he bears complete responsibility either way.

    I think he was hoping for two things.

    He was hoping that they'd be outside chanting and roaring, clearly visible and audible to those inside casting their votes for certification so that they would provide "air cover" for enough people to vote against certification or indeed for Pence to say "Clearly people are deeply concerned about this , just listen them , we should hold off on this and re-evaluate"

    He was also hoping for a counter protest to arrive , leading to violence between them and his supporters when he would then send in the Cavalry in force and claim that "antifa" etc. were trying to overthrow the government and "ordinary decent Americans using their freedom of expression" were being attacked by crazed "leftist, fascist, communists!!!!" allowing him to declare martial law , again to delay certification.

    Thankfully ,for whatever reason the "other side" never turned up on the day and he got his crowd so fired up they lost the run of themselves and went feral.

    And because it was only HIS side that were there , he couldn't use that as a justification for Martial law , so it all failed for him..



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    And importantly - under oath , which carries the risk of perjury charges and potentially a prison sentence.

    Unlike all of the denials and obfuscation from Trump and his mouthpieces.

    As yet not a single one of them has gone under oath to refute a single thing said about what happened on that day - Not one.

    Why might that be I wonder?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,507 ✭✭✭amandstu


    The source for the metal detector /let them through /they will not hurt me - claim was in Hutchison's testimony on oath to the Jan 6 committee

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-armed-supporters-jan-6-capitol-attack-1375529/ and many other news outlets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,689 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    Agree. The Americans are far too fond of the Framers' intent when crafting and even those of generations later when amending the Constitution. As an 18th-century effort to provide the scope and extent of Government vs State & Individual rights? The US Constitution is a noble effort. It is also very much of its time, and whilst jurists struggle to reason out the "framers intent"? They ignore that those intentions were shaped in an 18th-century world.

    Constitutions are a great tool; they must be living documents. Subject to amendment to meet the needs and mores of new generations, the bar for changing a constitution should be high, but I do feel in the US? The bar is too high, and the difficulty in attempting a change that doesn't directly serve members of Congress' interests ensures no real effort at such a change has been made in over 50 years. Even the most recent amendment, in 1991, resulted from 202 years of limbo.

    Imagine if we held the articles of the Bunreacht as sacrosanct. No Divorce, no marriage equality, Articles 2 & 3 persisting and blocking the GFA's settlement, the entry into the EEC and the further referenda on constitutional change for the EU treaties, Abortion rights, Nationality and other issues that were amended by way of referenda.

    Those changes reflect an Irish realisation that our Constitution is broadly a good document. It can always be better, or at the very least, if not "better", that it can be amended to be more reflective of our society its needs and be reframed accordingly.

    The US and its reverence for the original document is IMHO very much at odds with the framer's original intention for the Constitution to be a broad strokes document with review and amendment as the need arose. Indeed, in the 1st 25yrs of the US Constitution, whilst the framers were still framing ;) It was amended 12 times (13 if you count the 27th which passed in 1991, after being proposed in 1789). Almost half of the 27 amendments to the constitution, occurred in its 1st 25yrs. with 13(14 counting the 27th) in the intervening 220 years. No Constitution is so perfect that it never needs changing. The Yanks see that as anathema though and, I do think that the seditious efforts of Trump & Co demand at least the revisiting of the processes and laws that he almost subverted.

    It of course, wont happen but, its an area of jurisprudence I have great interest in, despite my having no dog in the fight other than wanting to see a stable and secure US.



  • Registered Users Posts: 791 ✭✭✭bog master


    Let us not forget in the 14th Amendment ........"or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof." Not admonishing their actions yet rather applauding and calling them patriots I love you, and with pronouncements he would pardon them would seem to me is giving aid and comfort.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,706 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Not to forget the wisdom that every villain is the hero of their own story. That doesn't mean they're not still a villain.

    Why should Trump have his intent so considered when murderers rarely get to say they genuinely thought they were doing the world a favour by slaying their victim and have that claim be treated seriously. The only instance where the latter is given real consideration is when said murderer is pleading insanity.

    If Trump uses intent to justify heinous actions, despite little credible evidence for and much against, is he then basically admitting a delusional mindset or even an insane one? I mean... he probably could do that and not have it particularly hurt his numbers since about half of America's likely voters are right there with him.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,433 ✭✭✭✭2smiggy


    death, very soon hopefully



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I have no issue per se with the concept of "originalism/textualism" , that's ok in and of itself.

    It's perfectly fine to hold the view that says - "The words mean this , if you want them to mean something different then change the words"

    BUT - If that's the position then the process to change the words has to be straight-forward , functional and democratic.

    In Ireland , if we want to change the constitution, someone makes a suggestion, it gets reviewed and if considered viable it's put to a vote by the people and a simple majority makes the change.

    If we don't like it we can change it back just as easily so "Irish Constitutional originalism" wouldn't be a problem at all.

    The problem is that the process to change the US Constitution is so incredibly complex ,convoluted and politically tainted that a determined minority of a minority of the population can block any changes, making large swathes of the US Constitution utterly unfit for modern use.



This discussion has been closed.
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